Download Free Macroeconomic Fluctuations In Developing Countries Book in PDF and EPUB Free Download. You can read online Macroeconomic Fluctuations In Developing Countries and write the review.

This paper documents the main stylized features of macroeconomic fluctuations for 12 developing countries. Cross-correlations between domestic industrial output and a large group of macroeconomic variables (including fiscal variables, wages, inflation, money, credit, trade, and exchange rates) are presented. Also analyzed are the effects of industrial country economic conditions on output fluctuations in these countries. The robustness of the results is examined using different detrending procedures. The results indicate many similarities between macroeconomic fluctuations in developing and industrial countries (procyclical real wages; countercyclical variation in government expenditure) and some important differences (countercyclical variation in the velocity of monetary aggregates).
This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic paradigms; the short-run dynamics are unrestricted. This framework is applied to Brazil and Korea. The results confirm that supply shocks are the main source of GDP fluctuations, even in the short run. Aggregate demand shocks are shown to be important in the short run in Brazil, but not in Korea. External shocks explain a small fraction of the variance of output, whereas the real exchange rate is driven mainly by fiscal shocks. Nominal shocks appear to have little impact on output and the real exchange rate.
The sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in sub–Saharan African are examined by comparing the CFA franc countries with the non–CFA franc countries. External shocks, especially terms of trade shocks, appear to have a greater influence on fluctuations of output and the real exchange rate in CFA franc countries. This result does not appear to be associated with differences in the economic structure but may reflect the fixed exchange rate regime, which does not (partially) buffer these countries from external shocks. Macroeconomic fluctuations in non–CFA franc countries are similar to those in other developing countries, particularly in Latin America.
This paper studies the sources of macroeconomic fluctuations in developing countries using a structural VAR approach. Identification of the sources is achieved using long-run restrictions derived from a theoretical model of a small open economy encompassing a large number of macroeconomic paradigms; the short-run dynamics are unrestricted. This framework is applied to Brazil and Korea. The results confirm that supply shocks are the main source of GDP fluctuations, even in the short run. Aggregate demand shocks are shown to be important in the short run in Brazil, but not in Korea. External shocks explain a small fraction of the variance of output, whereas the real exchange rate is driven mainly by fiscal shocks. Nominal shocks appear to have little impact on output and the real exchange rate.
The paper develops and tests a model of a developing economy that incorporates trade and capital restrictions, illegal transactions, a parallel foreign exchange market, currency substitution features, and forward-looking rational expectations. Temporary expansionary demand policies are associated with an increase in output and prices, a fall in the stock of net foreign assets, and a depreciation of the parallel exchange rate. The speed of adjustment is inversely related to the degree of rationing in the official foreign currency market. A once-for–all devaluation of the official exchange rate has no long-term effect on the premium.
A three-good, stochastic intertemporal equilibrium model of a small open economy is used to examine the link between terms of trade and business cycles. Equilibrium co-movements of model economies representing industrial and developing countries are computed and compared with the stylized facts of 30 countries. The results show that terms-of-trade shocks account for half of observed output variability and that the model mimics the Harberger-Laursen-Metzler effect and produces large deviations from purchasing power parity. The elasticity of substitution between tradable and nontradable goods and the persistence of the shocks play a key role in producing these results.
We examine the role of global and domestic shocks in driving macroeconomic fluctuations for Ghana. We are able to study the impact of exogenous shocks including productivity, credit supply, and commodity price shocks. We identify the shocks with a combination of sign and recursive restrictions within Bayesian VAR models. As a benchmark we provide results for South Africa to document the difference between two economies with similar structures but different levels of development. We find that global shocks play a more dominant role in South Africa than in Ghana. These shocks operate through three channels: trade, credit and commodity prices.
Human Development is widely recognised as the overriding goal of development, yet its realization is challenged by growing inequality, macro-economic fluctuations, and recurrent financial crises. This edited collection reflects on the work of Richard Jolly and includes contributions from leading scholars of development, all of whom have worked with Richard Jolly at varying points in his distinguished career. The volume advances thinking in the area of Human Development by discussing the evolution of its conceptualization and the policy implications, and the achievements in related key areas such as education, social protection, and employment. It juxtaposes these theoretical and (at times) real life improvements with disturbing developments in terms of growing inequality and macro-economic instability. It documents the growing income inequality which has characterized both developing and developed countries. It shows that there has been a decline in some countries and identifies the policies adopted in these exceptional cases. It also shows also where and how public expenditure on Human Development in developing countries has been affected by the 2008 financial crisis and presents a new framework for a pro-growth pro-Human Development macro-economics, including suggestions for the countercyclical regulation of financial flows. The book also argues that a series of disruptive factors are nudging the innovation trajectory in new potentially pro-poor and pro-Human Development directions, especially if policies speed-up the diffusion of new efficient appropriate technologies in low and middle income economies.