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State-of-the-art algorithmic deep learning and tensoring techniques for financial institutions The computational demand of risk calculations in financial institutions has ballooned and shows no sign of stopping. It is no longer viable to simply add more computing power to deal with this increased demand. The solution? Algorithmic solutions based on deep learning and Chebyshev tensors represent a practical way to reduce costs while simultaneously increasing risk calculation capabilities. Machine Learning for Risk Calculations: A Practitioner’s View provides an in-depth review of a number of algorithmic solutions and demonstrates how they can be used to overcome the massive computational burden of risk calculations in financial institutions. This book will get you started by reviewing fundamental techniques, including deep learning and Chebyshev tensors. You’ll then discover algorithmic tools that, in combination with the fundamentals, deliver actual solutions to the real problems financial institutions encounter on a regular basis. Numerical tests and examples demonstrate how these solutions can be applied to practical problems, including XVA and Counterparty Credit Risk, IMM capital, PFE, VaR, FRTB, Dynamic Initial Margin, pricing function calibration, volatility surface parametrisation, portfolio optimisation and others. Finally, you’ll uncover the benefits these techniques provide, the practicalities of implementing them, and the software which can be used. Review the fundamentals of deep learning and Chebyshev tensors Discover pioneering algorithmic techniques that can create new opportunities in complex risk calculation Learn how to apply the solutions to a wide range of real-life risk calculations. Download sample code used in the book, so you can follow along and experiment with your own calculations Realize improved risk management whilst overcoming the burden of limited computational power Quants, IT professionals, and financial risk managers will benefit from this practitioner-oriented approach to state-of-the-art risk calculation.
This book puts in one place and in accessible form Richard Berk’s most recent work on forecasts of re-offending by individuals already in criminal justice custody. Using machine learning statistical procedures trained on very large datasets, an explicit introduction of the relative costs of forecasting errors as the forecasts are constructed, and an emphasis on maximizing forecasting accuracy, the author shows how his decades of research on the topic improves forecasts of risk. Criminal justice risk forecasts anticipate the future behavior of specified individuals, rather than “predictive policing” for locations in time and space, which is a very different enterprise that uses different data different data analysis tools. The audience for this book includes graduate students and researchers in the social sciences, and data analysts in criminal justice agencies. Formal mathematics is used only as necessary or in concert with more intuitive explanations.
Financial risk management is quickly evolving with the help of artificial intelligence. With this practical book, developers, programmers, engineers, financial analysts, risk analysts, and quantitative and algorithmic analysts will examine Python-based machine learning and deep learning models for assessing financial risk. Building hands-on AI-based financial modeling skills, you'll learn how to replace traditional financial risk models with ML models. Author Abdullah Karasan helps you explore the theory behind financial risk modeling before diving into practical ways of employing ML models in modeling financial risk using Python. With this book, you will: Review classical time series applications and compare them with deep learning models Explore volatility modeling to measure degrees of risk, using support vector regression, neural networks, and deep learning Improve market risk models (VaR and ES) using ML techniques and including liquidity dimension Develop a credit risk analysis using clustering and Bayesian approaches Capture different aspects of liquidity risk with a Gaussian mixture model and Copula model Use machine learning models for fraud detection Predict stock price crash and identify its determinants using machine learning models
This open access Pivot demonstrates how a variety of technologies act as innovation catalysts within the banking and financial services sector. Traditional banks and financial services are under increasing competition from global IT companies such as Google, Apple, Amazon and PayPal whilst facing pressure from investors to reduce costs, increase agility and improve customer retention. Technologies such as blockchain, cloud computing, mobile technologies, big data analytics and social media therefore have perhaps more potential in this industry and area of business than any other. This book defines a fintech ecosystem for the 21st century, providing a state-of-the art review of current literature, suggesting avenues for new research and offering perspectives from business, technology and industry.
Bring together machine learning (ML) and deep learning (DL) in financial trading, with an emphasis on investment management. This book explains systematic approaches to investment portfolio management, risk analysis, and performance analysis, including predictive analytics using data science procedures. The book introduces pattern recognition and future price forecasting that exerts effects on time series analysis models, such as the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model, Seasonal ARIMA (SARIMA) model, and Additive model, and it covers the Least Squares model and the Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) model. It presents hidden pattern recognition and market regime prediction applying the Gaussian Hidden Markov Model. The book covers the practical application of the K-Means model in stock clustering. It establishes the practical application of the Variance-Covariance method and Simulation method (using Monte Carlo Simulation) for value at risk estimation. It also includes market direction classification using both the Logistic classifier and the Multilayer Perceptron classifier. Finally, the book presents performance and risk analysis for investment portfolios. By the end of this book, you should be able to explain how algorithmic trading works and its practical application in the real world, and know how to apply supervised and unsupervised ML and DL models to bolster investment decision making and implement and optimize investment strategies and systems. What You Will Learn Understand the fundamentals of the financial market and algorithmic trading, as well as supervised and unsupervised learning models that are appropriate for systematic investment portfolio management Know the concepts of feature engineering, data visualization, and hyperparameter optimization Design, build, and test supervised and unsupervised ML and DL models Discover seasonality, trends, and market regimes, simulating a change in the market and investment strategy problems and predicting market direction and prices Structure and optimize an investment portfolio with preeminent asset classes and measure the underlying risk Who This Book Is For Beginning and intermediate data scientists, machine learning engineers, business executives, and finance professionals (such as investment analysts and traders)
The fundamental mathematical tools needed to understand machine learning include linear algebra, analytic geometry, matrix decompositions, vector calculus, optimization, probability and statistics. These topics are traditionally taught in disparate courses, making it hard for data science or computer science students, or professionals, to efficiently learn the mathematics. This self-contained textbook bridges the gap between mathematical and machine learning texts, introducing the mathematical concepts with a minimum of prerequisites. It uses these concepts to derive four central machine learning methods: linear regression, principal component analysis, Gaussian mixture models and support vector machines. For students and others with a mathematical background, these derivations provide a starting point to machine learning texts. For those learning the mathematics for the first time, the methods help build intuition and practical experience with applying mathematical concepts. Every chapter includes worked examples and exercises to test understanding. Programming tutorials are offered on the book's web site.
Introduces machine learning and its algorithmic paradigms, explaining the principles behind automated learning approaches and the considerations underlying their usage.
This book is about making machine learning models and their decisions interpretable. After exploring the concepts of interpretability, you will learn about simple, interpretable models such as decision trees, decision rules and linear regression. Later chapters focus on general model-agnostic methods for interpreting black box models like feature importance and accumulated local effects and explaining individual predictions with Shapley values and LIME. All interpretation methods are explained in depth and discussed critically. How do they work under the hood? What are their strengths and weaknesses? How can their outputs be interpreted? This book will enable you to select and correctly apply the interpretation method that is most suitable for your machine learning project.
This paper discusses the impact of the rapid adoption of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) in the financial sector. It highlights the benefits these technologies bring in terms of financial deepening and efficiency, while raising concerns about its potential in widening the digital divide between advanced and developing economies. The paper advances the discussion on the impact of this technology by distilling and categorizing the unique risks that it could pose to the integrity and stability of the financial system, policy challenges, and potential regulatory approaches. The evolving nature of this technology and its application in finance means that the full extent of its strengths and weaknesses is yet to be fully understood. Given the risk of unexpected pitfalls, countries will need to strengthen prudential oversight.
Credit risk analysis is one of the most important topics in the field of financial risk management. Due to recent financial crises and regulatory concern of Basel II, credit risk analysis has been the major focus of financial and banking industry. Especially for some credit-granting institutions such as commercial banks and credit companies, the ability to discriminate good customers from bad ones is crucial. The need for reliable quantitative models that predict defaults accurately is imperative so that the interested parties can take either preventive or corrective action. Hence credit risk analysis becomes very important for sustainability and profit of enterprises. In such backgrounds, this book tries to integrate recent emerging support vector machines and other computational intelligence techniques that replicate the principles of bio-inspired information processing to create some innovative methodologies for credit risk analysis and to provide decision support information for interested parties.