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Seminar paper from the year 2015 in the subject Business economics - Investment and Finance, grade: 1.7, University of Frankfurt (Main) (Faculty of Economics and Business Administration), language: English, abstract: Assurance companies face two main risk factors in the process of pricing annuity products namely the interest risk and the longevity risk. There are numerous products and possibilities for the insurers to hedge their interest risk using interest derivatives and long bonds. Hedging products against the longevity risk is uncommon but insurers have to take it into account when they are pricing their annuity products. There are two types of longevity risks. On the one hand the idiosyncratic longevity risk and on the other hand the systematic longevity risk. With regards to the idiosyncratic longevity risk, individuals are faced with the issue that they need to invest in assets for their retirement in spite of an uncertain span of lifetime and thus an uncertain investment horizon. Pricing of life annuities could be done according to corresponding mortality tables. If the clients of an insurer die on average according to mortality rates provided by such tables, the revenues of the insurer should be sufficient to ensure the payments for the clients who are still alive. The issue out of a pension fund perspective is that longevity has been improving over time and clients could live longer than anticipated. These improvements occurred in an unpredictable way, especially at higher ages according to Cairns et al. (2006). Insurers therefore made false calculations of the insurance premium and suffered losses due to pensioners living longer than anticipated. The systematic longevity risk is based on the stochastic variation of mortality. The future development of life expectancy will be highly unpredictable due to medical improvements or discoveries in genetic research. For that reason insurers need stochastic models to quantify the systematic mortality changes over time and to make a prediction about future mortality in order to prevent losses caused by longevity risk. This paper will firstly discuss the literature regarding the Lee and Carter one factor model and the relevance of longevity risk for annuity pricing. Second this paper aims to estimate the stochastic two-factor model by Cairns, Blake and Dowd (2006) (CBD) for U.S. males from 1933 to 2010 by running a simulation to predict average mortality for the year 2030. In the further course will this stated prediction be used to price an annuity product followed by a brief conclusion and summary of results.
The past 50 years have seen an abundance of research on retirement planning and longevity risk. Reviewed here is the academic side of the research and its varied viewpoints and nuances. The evolution of retirement risk models, retirement portfolio problems and solutions, and annuities are some of the many topics covered.
And key messages -- Key principles of governance and investment management -- Governance of public pension assets -- Governance structures and accountabilities -- Qualification, selection, and operation of governing bodies -- Operational policies and procedures -- Managing fiscal pressures in defined-benefit schemes -- Policy responses to turbulent financial markets -- Investment of public pension assets -- Defining the investment policy framework for public pension funds -- Managing risk for different cohorts in defined-contribution schemes -- An asset-liability approach to strategic asset allocation for pension funds -- In-house investment versus outsourcing to external investment managers -- International investments and managing the resulting currency risk -- Alternative asset classes and new investment themes.
This paper introduces a target benefit pension (TBP) model that incorporates longevity risk and stochastic interest rate. Previous models have not considered the dynamic nature of remaining lifetime, and this paper proposes an Ornstein-Uhlenbeck (OU) process to simulate average remaining lifetime. Additionally, the paper evaluates the annuity with stochastic interest rate and establishes an approximation of the overall profit of the pension fund. From the perspective of the pension fund, the paper allows for investment in both risk-free and risky assets and establishes a stochastic control problem. The control variables are the risky investment amount and the overall adjustment, and explicit expressions for the problem are obtained using Hamilton-Jacobi-Bellman methods. The study highlights the importance of the adjustment term in fighting inflation and shows the significant impact of longevity risk on pension funds. This study contributes to the TBP model by increasing its potential in intergenerational risk sharing and compensating for the disadvantage of fixed annuity that its real value declines due to inflation.
Pension funds and annuity providers need to effectively manage the longevity risk they are exposed to. Individuals receiving a lifetime income may live longer than expected or accounted for in the actuarial calculations to provision for these liabilities. Mismanaged longevity risk can deteriorate finances, cause bankruptcy and expose individuals to the risk of losing their retirement income. To safeguard against this risk, pension funds and annuity providers must provision for future improvements in mortality and life expectancy. The regulatory framework can support the effective management of longevity risk. This publication assesses how pension funds, annuity providers such as life insurance companies, and the regulatory framework account for future improvements in mortality and life expectancy. The study then examines the mortality tables commonly used by pension funds and annuity providers against several well-known mortality projection models with the purpose of assessing the potential shortfall in provisions. The final part of the publication identifies best practices and discusses the management of longevity risk, putting forward a set of policy options to encourage and facilitate the management of longevity risk.
Highlighting retirement security as a major policy concern, this book addresses the question 'What are the risks & rewards in pensions, & what paths can stakeholders chose to solve these problems?'. It deals with employees' needs & expectations, employers' intentions & realizations, & policymakers' efforts to resolve the many challenges.
This is an open access title available under the terms of a CC BY-NC-ND 4.0 International licence. It is free to read at Oxford Scholarship Online and offered as a free PDF download from OUP and selected open access locations. Notwithstanding the terrible price the world has paid in the coronavirus pandemic, the fact remains that longevity at older ages is likely to continue to rise in the medium and longer term. This volume explores how the private and public sectors can collaborate via public-private partnerships (PPPs) to develop new mechanisms to reduce older people's risk of outliving their assets in later life. As this volume shows, PPPs typically involve shared government financing alongside private sector partner expertise, management responsibility, and accountability. In addition to offering empirical evidence on examples where this is working well, contributors provide case studies, discuss survey results, and examine a variety of different financial and insurance products to better meet the needs of the aging population. This volume will be informative to researchers, plan sponsors, students, and policymakers seeking to enhance retirement plan offerings.
This book, the first in a new series produced by the Pension Research Council of the Wharton School in collaboration with Oxford University Press, explores ways to enhance retirement security in a volatile financial environment.Mitchell and Smetters begin by assessing the myriad retirement risks confronting employees, retirees, employers, and governments, and it shows how stakeholders can work to reinvent pensions that perform well in a competitive global setting. Contributors then indicate how pension systems can be better designed to help protect against these risks.Of special interest is a discussion of new financial products and structures to meet and manage challenges to old-age security. Examples considered include pension investment guarantees and hedges, adapting catastrophe bonds to the pension context, and key regulatory structures and portfolio requirements designed to protect unwary or unwitting pension participants. The contributors draw important lessons for a wide range of countries, drawing from both developed and developing marketexperiences.Contributors include world-famous finance experts and risk management faculty, development economists, pension regulators, and pension consultants.
This book examines the major economic challenges associated with the sustainability of public pensions, specifically demographic change, labor-market relations, and risk sharing. The issue of public pensions occupies the political and economic agendas of many major governments in the world. International organizations such as the World Bank and the OECD warn that the economic changes driven by an aging society negatively affects the sustainability of pension systems. This book analyzes different global public pension systems to offer policies, methods and tools for sustainable public pensions. Real case studies from France, Sweden, Latin America, Algeria, USA and Mexico are featured.
Historically, unexpected improvements in mortality rates have led to large, unanticipated increases in life expectancy, with accompanying increases in the value of defined benefit pension liabilities. As a result, longevity risk needs to be measured and managed alongside the financial risks facing these plans. The emergence of new instruments for hedging longevity risk means that a complete toolkit is now available for managing these plans in a way that is sustainable over the long term. Decisions to hedge or eliminate longevity risk need to be made in a holistic framework. For corporate pension plans this means taking account of the corporate finance perspective, as well as the inter-dependencies between the sponsor and the plan. This paper addresses the importance of measuring and managing longevity risk and presents a holistic framework for sustainable pension plan management that facilitates longevity risk management decision-making.