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This book covers available approaches to improving the performance and impact of long-term projections of the national energy sector development. In turn, it introduces an original multi-stage approach to narrowing down the uncertainty range of the input data and resulting projections. Its unique contribution is that it limits the scope for each of the projection timeframe segments step-by-step. This is done in the course of iterative calculations, which employ dedicated methods and other tools to elucidate and solve top-priority problems specific to each time segment. In closing, the book provides a detailed treatment of two essential research problems: 1) long-term forecasting for regional energy markets, and 2) the quantitative assessment of a) the barriers that are likely to hinder energy sector development and b) strategic-level energy security threats.
Hierarchical Modeling of Energy Systems presents a detailed methodology for hierarchical modeling of large-scale complex systems with a focus on energy systems and their expansion planning and control. General methodological principles of hierarchical modeling are analyzed, and based on this analysis, a generalized technology for the hierarchical approach is presented. The mathematical foundations of decomposition and bi-level programming, as well as the possibility of using information technologies are also considered. The theoretical propositions are demonstrated by numerous hierarchical modeling examples aimed at planning the development of the energy sector and expansion of energy systems, analyzing, and optimizing these systems, and controlling their operation. In addition, codes and sample simulations are included throughout. This is an invaluable guide for researchers, engineers, and other specialists involved in the development, control and management of energy systems, while the summary of fundamental principles and concepts in energy modeling makes this an accessible learning tool for graduate students on any course involving energy systems or energy modeling. - Summarizes hierarchical modeling principles and methods - Critically evaluates all energy systems including electric power systems, heat supply systems, gas, and coal supply systems, integrated and cogeneration systems, its interrelations and more - Examines expansion planning, development and operation, control and management of energy systems - Provides a detailed mathematical descriptions of models, computation algorithms, and optimization problems
"While the energy sector is a primary target of efforts to arrest and reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and lower the carbon footprint of development, it is also expected to be increasingly affected by unavoidable climate consequences from the damage already induced in the biosphere. Energy services and resources, as well as seasonal demand, will be increasingly affected by changing trends, increasing variability, greater extremes and large inter-annual variations in climate parameters in some regions. All evidence suggests that adaptation is not an optional add-on but an essential reckoning on par with other business risks. Existing energy infrastructure, new infrastructure and future planning need to consider emerging climate conditions and impacts on design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Integrated risk-based planning processes will be critical to address the climate change impacts and harmonize actions within and across sectors. Also, awareness, knowledge, and capacity impede mainstreaming of climate adaptation into the energy sector. However, the formal knowledge base is still nascent?information needs are complex and to a certain extent regionally and sector specific. This report provides an up-to-date compendium of what is known about weather variability and projected climate trends and their impacts on energy service provision and demand. It discusses emerging practices and tools for managing these impacts and integrating climate considerations into planning processes and operational practices in an environment of uncertainty. It focuses on energy sector adaptation, rather than mitigation which is not discussed in this report. This report draws largely on available scientific and peer-reviewed literature in the public domain and takes the perspective of the developing world to the extent possible."
The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2013 (AEO2013) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projections, the AEO2013 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies.
With the ever-increasing impacts of climate change, it is now clear that global society will have to restructure its energy systems in order to decrease carbon emissions. The scenarios under which this transition to low-carbon societies (LCS) could occur would have complex economic, technological, behavioural and policy implications. This volume, a supplement to the Climate Policy journal, considers these implications by examining different low-carbon scenarios for different countries, modelled at different scales and typologies. Two overview chapters, co-written by international experts, set the context of scenario development and quantification of LCS, and summarize the findings on the economic implications, societal responses, technological developments and required policy measures to enable LCS across a range of countries. Further chapters detail the modelling of various scenarios and outline the model methodology, detail the economic and technological consequences of transitions to LCS, and comment on the strengths and weaknesses of specific policies.
As a consequence of changes in energy prices and new environmental policies, a historical experience has accumulated over the past two decades. Interpreted within the framework of the neoclassical theory of economic growth, this experience provides essential guidelines for future policy formation.
"The projections in the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) Annual Energy Outlook 2012 (AEO2012) focus on the factors that shape the U.S. energy system over the long term. Under the assumption that current laws and regulations remain unchanged throughout the projections, the AEO2012 Reference case provides the basis for examination and discussion of energy production, consumption, technology, and market trends and the direction they may take in the future. It also serves as a starting point for analysis of potential changes in energy policies. But AEO2012 is not limited to the Reference case. It also includes 29 alternative cases (see Appendix E, Table E1), which explore important areas of uncertainty for markets, technologies, and policies in the U.S. energy economy. Many of the implications of the alternative cases are discussed in the 'Issues in focus' section of this report. / Key results highlighted in AEO2012 include continued modest growth in demand for energy over the next 25 years and increased domestic crude oil and natural gas production, largely driven by rising production from tight oil and shale resources. As a result, U.S. reliance on imported oil is reduced; domestic production of natural gas exceeds consumption, allowing for net exports; a growing share of U.S. electric power generation is met with natural gas and renewables; and energy-related carbon dioxide emissions remain below their 2005 level from 2010 to 2035, even in the absence of new Federal policies designed to mitigate greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions."--Executive Summary (p. 2).