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This paper examines the long-run determinants of the real exchange rate from a stock-flow perspective. The empirical analysis estimates a long-run relationship between the real exchange rate, net foreign assets and other factors affecting trade flows. Using postwar data for the United States and Japan, cointegration analysis supports the finding that the structural factors underlying each country’s net trade and net foreign asset positions determine the long-run path for the real value of the dollar and the yen. The empirical analysis also provides estimates for the underlying stochastic trend in each real exchange rate series.
"This book greatly enhances our understanding of the behavior of real exchange rates. It provides an elegant model based on a solid theoretical foundation that links real exchange rates to their fundamental economic determinants and takes proper account of stock and flow considerations. The authors provide a masterful account of how changes in productivity and thrift affect the real exchange rate, and show that the long-run impact depends crucially on whether the change reflects the former fundamental (investment) or the latter (consumption). The empirical implementation uses state-of-the-art cointegration and error correction methodologies that are eminently well suited to capture the short-run adjustment of the real exchange rate to its medium- to long-run equilibrium value. The empirical results are extremely encouraging, as the economic fundamentals identified by the authors can explain a substantial part of the movement in the real exchange rate of a number of countries."--Peter Clark, International Monetary Fund
Textbook, research papers on international economic theory, economic policy and practice - includes a literature survey of theoretical studies in trade relations; covers evolution of economic models explaining the determinants of trade structure, capital flow, labour mobility, trade in natural resources, etc.; examines macroeconomics aspects of balance of payments, exchange rate, international monetary system, economic relations and dependence, etc. Bibliography, graphs, statistical tables.
This paper presents a model for the long-run determinants of the Brazilian real exchange rate for the period 1947/95. This is a simple representative agent model that links the exchange rate, external debt and net exports. It is assumed that: a) the country pays an interest rate on its debt which is an increasing function of the debt/GDP ratio; b) the real exchange rate is a control variable. The transitional dynamics of the model following different shocks is analysed. The model suggests that the relevant variables are the real exchange rate, external debt and net exports. A VEC model using these variables shows that the Brazilian data support the existence of one cointegrating relation among the three variables, which we interpret as the empirical counterpart of the long-run conditions of the theoretical model. Finally, we impose restrictions to identify shocks that could be interpreted as the non-observable exogenous variables of the theoretical model. The dynamics of the empirical model is estimated.
The exchange rate is a crucial variable linking a nation's domestic economy to the international market. Thus choice of an exchange rate regime is a central component in the economic policy of developing countries and a key factor affecting economic growth. Historically, most developing nations have employed strict exchange rate controls and heavy protection of domestic industry-policies now thought to be at odds with sustainable and desirable rates of economic growth. By contrast, many East Asian nations maintained exchange rate regimes designed to achieve an attractive climate for exports and an "outer-oriented" development strategy. The result has been rapid and consistent economic growth over the past few decades. Changes in Exchange Rates in Rapidly Developing Countries explores the impact of such diverse exchange control regimes in both historical and regional contexts, focusing particular attention on East Asia. This comprehensive, carefully researched volume will surely become a standard reference for scholars and policymakers.
This paper empirically analyzes Japanese long-run exchange rates from several perspectives. Several exchange rate models are considered, including the purchasing power parity, the real interest differential model, and the hybrid models à la Hooper and Morton (1982). A notable feature of the latter models is that the current accounts are introduced as determinants of the exchange rates; one type of hybrid model uses the actual current account, and the other the optimal current account, which is calculated using the present value model suggested by Campbell and Shiller (1988). The paper finds that the long-run specification is sensitive to the specification of the model.
This paper investigates the long run behavior of real exchange rates in nineteen countries of Latin America over the period 1970 - 2006. Our data does not support the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) hypothesis, implying that real shocks tend to have permanent effects on Latin America's real exchange rates. By exploiting the advantage of non stationary panel econometrics, we are able to determinate factors that drive real exchanges rate in the long run: The Balassa-Samuelson effect, government spending, the terms of trade, the openness degree, foreign capital flows and the de facto nominal exchange regime. The latter effect has policy implications since we find that a fixed regime tends to appreciate the real exchange rate. This finding shows the non neutrality of exchange rate regime regarding its effects on real exchange rates. We also run estimations for country subgroups (South America versus Caribbean and Central America). Regional results highlight that several real exchange rates determinants are specific to one geographic zone. Finally, we compute equilibrium real exchange rate estimations. Two main results are derived from the investigation of misalignments, [i] eight real exchange rates are quite close to their equilibrium level in 2006, and [ii] our model shows that a part of currencies crises that arose in Latin America was preceded by a real exchange rate overvaluation.
This paper presents a reduced-form model of the real exchange rate. Using multilateral cointegration methods, the model is implemented for the real effective exchange rates of the dollar, the mark, and the yen, over the period 1974-1993. In contrast to much other research using real exchange rates, there is evidence of significant and sensible long-run relationships for a simplified version as well as for the full version of the model. The estimated long-run relationships are used to produce dynamic equations, which outperform a random walk and produce sensible dynamic patterns in the context of an impulse response analysis.