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Ten rounds of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) have been conducted between June 2020 and December 2021 to assess the impacts of Myanmar’s economic, political, and health crises on various dimensions of household welfare. RUFSS interviews about 2000 mothers of young children per round from urban Yangon, the rural Dry Zone, and recent migrants from these areas.
Six rounds of the Rural-Urban Food Security Survey (RUFSS) conducted in 2020 demonstrated the impacts of the COVID-19 crisis on poverty and food insecurity among approximately 2,000 households with pregnant women or young children in urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone. In this Research Note, we present results from a follow-up round conducted in May 2021.
Myanmar has endured multiple crises in recent years — including COVID-19, global price instability, the 2021 coup, and widespread conflict — that have disrupted and even reversed a decade of economic development. Household welfare has declined severely, with more than 3 million people displaced and many more affected by high food price inflation and worsening diets. Yet Myanmar’s agrifood production and exports have proved surprisingly resilient. Myanmar’s Agrifood System: Historical Development, Recent Shocks, Future Opportunities provides critical analyses and insights into the agrifood system’s evolution, current state, and future potential. This work fills an important knowledge gap for one of Southeast Asia’s major agricultural economies — one largely closed to empirical research for many years. It is the culmination of a decade of rigorous empirical research on Myanmar’s agrifood system, including through the recent crises. Written by IFPRI researchers and colleagues from Michigan State University, the book’s insights can serve as a to guide immediate humanitarian assistance and inform future growth strategies, once a sustainable resolution to the current crisis is found that ensures lasting peace and good governance.
Traditional forms of livestock-rearing and fishing have been central components in rural livelihoods in Myanmar for centuries and remain important today. More capital-intensive forms of marine fishing, aquaculture, and poultry farming began to expand during the early-1990s and grew briskly thereafter. This paper summarizes the status of the supply side of livestock, capture fisheries and aquaculture sectors in Myanmar, based on analysis of nationally representative data extracted from the Myanmar Living Conditions Survey 2017 and supporting information from other recent surveys and secondary sources. We examine levels of livestock ownership, participation in capture fisheries and aquaculture, reasons for rearing livestock, ownership of fishing assets, and household earnings from all three activities. We also discuss the characteristics of more geographically clustered, capitalintensive forms of poultry and swine farming, fishing, and fish farming, and the downturn in these sectors beginning in 2020 with the twin crises of COVID-19 and the coup. We conclude with a discussion of possible future directions for livestock farming, capture fisheries and aquaculture in Myanmar, along with priorities for sectoral upgrading.
The regional context in which rural livelihoods in Myanmar are embedded varies widely, in terms of physical geography, climate and agroecology, local resource base, agrarian structure, infrastructure provision, proximity to urban areas and neighboring countries, social networks, institutions, and ethnicities. The composition of livelihoods in each administrative and geographical zone of the country reflects these diverse contexts. Marked variations in patterns of livelihoods are evident at multiple scales, from the zone or region, down to township, and village level, so that the composition of livelihoods in villages close to one another sometimes varies widely (Phyo, 2022). Despite a high level of place-based specificity, many broad similarities and common trends also shape the composition of livelihoods at sub-national and national levels. These include: Generally low levels of agricultural productivity relative to other countries in the region, in terms of both land and labor (World Bank 2016); High rates of landlessness and legacies of land confiscation and unresolved struggles over land rights and access (Mark and Belton 2020); Generally poor, though -prior to 2020 - rapidly improving, public infrastructure and services, including electricity, roads, schools, health services, and rural credit (Belton et al. 2017; Lambrecht and Belton 2018); Relatively low levels of diversification and capital in the rural non-farm economy; High rates of international and domestic outmigration (World Bank and LIFT 2016; CHIME 2019); Histories of ethno-political conflict and insecurity (South 2009). This working paper synthesizes analyses from four large household surveys, each covering a major agro-ecological zone, to evaluate inter-regional variations in the composition of livelihoods and the rural economy. The four zones examined are the Delta (Ayeyarwady and Yangon), the Dry Zone (Mandalay, Magway, Sagaing), the hills (represented by Shan South), and the coasts (represented by Mon State). We also synthesize recent secondary sources that offer additional context and insights on regional livelihood dynamics from these and other areas of Myanmar, including the impacts of the ‘triple crisis’ (covid, coup, and price inflation) beginning in 2020.
Malawi has suffered from weak economic growth since its independence in 1964. Over 50 percentof the population live below the poverty line, unable to produce enough or to otherwise obtain sufficient income to meet all of their basic needs. Poverty is concentrated in rural areas. Smallholder agriculture dominates employment in rural Malawi. However, with continuing population growth, the average landholding size for smallholder farming households is declining, resulting in many being unable to produce sufficient food to meet their own needs. To escape poverty, rural households increasingly must diversify their sources of income, but many lack the human and financial capital to do so. In this report, a detailed examination is provided of the agricultural production, non-farm employment patterns, and overall incomes obtained by farming households across Malawi using data from the fifth Malawi Integrated Household Survey (IHS5), conducted in 2019/20. The analysis demonstrates that most poor farming households will never be able to escape poverty through their farming alone, even with substantially higher crop productivity. Rainfed cropping remains the primary form of agricultural production for farming households in Malawi. While increasing numbers are engaging in irrigated farming during the dry season, the returns from such farming are inconsistent and low. More importantly, off-farm income sources, particularly temporary ganyu wage employment, are now critical to the livelihoods of most rural households, particularly those with small cropland holdings. The common assumption that agriculture is at the center of the livelihoods of rural households across Malawi no longer holds. Of equal importance is their ability to obtain sufficiently remunerative off-farm employment. In developing strategies for rural economic and human development in Malawi, accelerating agricultural production growth, particularly through increased productivity, and increasing the returns to farming are necessary, but incomplete solutions. Equal attention must now be paid to how workers in farming households can also qualify for and obtain good off-farm jobs. Without increases in such employment opportunities, the economies of most rural communities across Malawi are likely to stagnate and poverty will deepen among households living in them.
We assess the impact of Ethiopia’s flagship social protection program, the Productive Safety Net Program (PSNP) on the adverse impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic on food and nutrition security of households, mothers, and children. We use both pre-pandemic in-person household survey data and a post-pandemic phone survey. Two thirds of our respondents reported that their incomes had fallen after the pandemic began and almost half reported that their ability to satisfy their food needs had worsened. Employing a household fixed effects difference-in-difference approach, we find that the household food insecurity increased by 11.7 percentage points and the size of the food gap by 0.47 months in the aftermath of the onset of the pandemic. Participation in the PSNP offsets virtually all of this adverse change; the likelihood of becoming food insecure increased by only 2.4 percentage points for PSNP households and the duration of the food gap increased by only 0.13 months. The protective role of PSNP is greater for poorer households and those living in remote areas. Results are robust to definitions of PSNP participation, different estimators and how we account for the non-randomness of mobile phone ownership. PSNP households were less likely to reduce expenditures on health and education by 7.7 percentage points and were less likely to reduce expenditures on agricultural inputs by 13 percentage points. By contrast, mothers’ and children’s diets changed little, despite some changes in the composition of diets with consumption of animal source foods declining significantly.
Myanmar is known for its engaging history, rich cultural heritage, and diverse ethnic communities. Its tumultuous political past has been discussed by academics and policy makers for decades; however, the land of the Shwedagon cannot only be defined by conflict and contestation. Myanmar is complex and multi-layered with innumerable issues shaping its identity and manifold interpretations creating its distinctiveness. A deeper comprehension of its past glory with thoughtful deliberation on its socio-economic challenges helps to understand the country better. This book fills this gap by focusing on four broad themes––reminiscence, restoration, re-evaluation, and resurrection. It studies interconnected issues ranging from nostalgia and belonging to Myanmar’s contribution to art and heritage (through its museums, cinema, folk traditions); from the problems of landlessness, resource dispossession, and climate change to the experience of marginalized groups. The author weaves these themes into a common narrative of discovering Myanmar through a holistic lens. The book aims to explore the country through its history, culture, communities, and challenges. A unique contribution, the book highlights the myriad facets of Myanmar by contemplating on its inherent strengths and visible weaknesses. It would be indispensable for scholars and researchers of Southeast Asian studies, Asian studies, area studies, Myanmar studies, political studies, cultural studies, and sociology.
We analyze rice input and productivity data for the monsoon seasons of 2020 and 2021 from the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS). The survey covers plots of 2,672 rice producers, spread over 259 townships in all states/regions of the country. We find that: 1. Rice productivity at the national level during the monsoon of 2021 decreased on average by 2.1 percent compared to the monsoon of 2020. Considering estimated area reductions, national paddy production decreased by 3.4 percent compared to the monsoon of 2020. 2. Some areas performed substantially worse. Rice yields were low and declined significantly in Kayah and Chin, two conflict-affected states that have shown the highest levels of food insecurity in recent assessments. 3. Prices for most inputs used in rice cultivation increased significantly between these two seasons. Prices of urea, the most important chemical fertilizer used by rice farmers, increased by 56 percent on average and mechanization costs increased by 19 percent. 4. Paddy prices at the farm increased by 8 percent, significantly less than input prices, squeezing rice farmers’ profits during the monsoon of 2021. Despite the substantial hurdles in production and marketing due to the political crisis and international market developments, the results of the Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey show the overall resilience of rice production during the monsoon of 2021. While the rice sector has been a source of stability in the country, the situation for future crop seasons is however concerning given further increases in input prices (especially fertilizer), the overall reduced profitability of rice farming, the reduced coping strategies remaining for rice farmers, and currency policy changes by the military government.
This study assesses the welfare impacts of COVID-19 on households in Myanmar by combining recent high-frequency telephone survey evidence for two specific rural and urban geographies with national-level survey-based simulations designed to assess ex-ante impacts on poverty with differing amounts of targeted cash transfers. The first source of evidence – the COVID-19 Rural and Urban Food Security Survey (C19- RUFSS) – consists of four rounds of monthly data collected from a sample of over 2,000 households, all with young children or pregnant mothers, divided evenly between urban and peri-urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone. This survey sheds light on household incomes prior to COVID-19 (January 2020), incomes and food security status soon after the first COVID-19 wave (June 2020), the gradual economic recovery thereafter (July and August 2020), and the start of the second COVID-19 wave in September and October 2020. This survey gives timely and high-quality evidence on the recent welfare impacts of COVID-19 for two important geographies and for households that are nutritionally highly vulnerable to shocks due to the presence of very young children or pregnant mothers. However, the relatively narrow geographic and demographic focus of this telephone survey and the need for forecasting the poverty impacts of COVID-19 into 2021 prompt us to explore simulationbased evidence derived by applying parameter shocks to household models developed from nationally representative household survey data collected prior to COVID-19, the 2015 Myanmar Poverty and Living Conditions Survey (MPLCS). By realistically simulating the kinds of disruptions imposed on Myanmar’s economy by both international forces, e.g., lower agricultural exports and workers’ remittances, and domestic COVID-19 prevention measures. e.g., stay-at-home orders and temporary business closures, we not only can predict the impacts of COVID-19 on household poverty at the rural, urban, and national levels, but also can assess the further benefits to household welfare of social protection in the form of monthly household cash transfers of different magnitudes. Combined, these two sources of evidence yield insights on both the on-the-ground impacts of COVID-19 in recent months and the potential poverty reduction impacts of social protection measures in the coming year. We conclude the study with a discussion of the policy implications of these findings.