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The recent dramatic increase in the number of light trucks (109% between 1963 and 1974) has prompted concern about the energy consequences of the growing popularity of the light truck. An estimate of the future number of light trucks is considered to be a reasonable first step in assessing the energy impact of these vehicles. The monograph contains forecasts based on two models and six scenarios. The coefficients for the models have been derived by ordinary least squares regression of national level time series data. The first model is a two stage model. The first stage estimates the number of light trucks and cars (together), and the second stage applies a share's submodel to determine the number of light trucks. The second model is a simultaneous equation model. The two models track one another remarkably well, within about 2%. The scenarios were chosen to be consistent with those used in the Lindsey-Kaufman study Projection of Light Truck Population to Year 2025. Except in the case of the most dismal economic scenario, the number of light trucks is expected to increase from the 1974 level of 0.09 light truck per person to about 0.12 light truck per person in 1995.
The recent growth in the number of light trucks is a matter of considerable interest in that it may have far-reaching implications for gasoline consumption. This paper forecasts the number of light trucks in the years to 2025. The forecast is based on economic scenarios developed by SRI International. Except for the case of the most-dismal economic forecast, the number of light trucks is predicted to increase monotonically and to show the greatest rate of increase between 1973 and 1980.
"This report presents the automobile and light truck vmt forecasts for the years 2005, 2020 and intermediate years"--p. 1.