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Analyses of savings rates needed for successful retirement rates (SSRs) typically assume constant real earnings growth throughout one's career. However, data on the life-cycle earnings patterns of millions of U.S. workers suggest that earnings growth does not occur at a constant rate that matches inflation. Instead, earnings tend to increase at a decreasing rate during the early years of one's career and decrease at an increasing rate in the later years. Utilizing simulations of saving and dissaving throughout the life cycle based on both historical market returns and forecasted returns, the authors examine the impact of assuming more realistic earnings growth relative to constant inflation-adjusted growth. Results indicate that failing to account for more realistic earnings curves throughout the life cycle may overstate SSRs for lower-income households while understating SSRs for higher-income households, and understate SSRs for younger households while overstating SSRs for older households. Furthermore, historical SSRs of 10% or less are found for all but the highest-income households after accounting for more realistic earnings curves and Social Security benefits--though variations in specific effects may exist based on the simulation methods utilized.
Diversification provides a well-known way of getting something close to a free lunch: by spreading money across different kinds of investments, investors can earn the same return with lower risk (or a much higher return for the same amount of risk). This strategy, introduced nearly fifty years ago, led to such strategies as index funds. What if we were all missing out on another free lunch that’s right under our noses? InLifecycle Investing, Barry Nalebuff and Ian Ayres-two of the most innovative thinkers in business, law, and economics-have developed tools that will allow nearly any investor to diversify their portfolios over time. By using leveraging when young-a controversial idea that sparked hate mail when the authors first floated it in the pages ofForbes-investors of all stripes, from those just starting to plan to those getting ready to retire, can substantially reduce overall risk while improving their returns. InLifecycle Investing, readers will learn How to figure out the level of exposure and leverage that’s right foryou How the Lifecycle Investing strategy would have performed in the historical market Why it will work even if everyone does it Whennotto adopt the Lifecycle Investing strategy Clearly written and backed by rigorous research,Lifecycle Investingpresents a simple but radical idea that will shake up how we think about retirement investing even as it provides a healthier nest egg in a nicely feathered nest.
During the past decade Arthur M. Okun, like many economists, focused attention on finding ways to fight inflation without sacrificing goals of high employment and prosperity. In recent years the economy has been plagued by stagflation—the simultaneous persistence of high inflation and high unemployment. Traditional methods of aggregate demand management that have been reasonably successful in curing either one or the other of these problems have not been effective, and the nation has not been able to contain inflation even in periods of economic slack. It now seems clear that the economists’ traditional model that presumes short-run flexibility in wages and prices no longer holds for most of the industrial world, and hence the response of inflation to shifts in macroeconomic policy is weak. In this volume Okun seeks to explain that loss of responsiveness by analyzing how modern labor and product markets work and how they are structured. A central feature of Okun’s analysis is implicit contract theory, which recognizes that efficiency-maximizing decisions by business firms reflect long-term considerations as well as short-term changes in markets. His interpretation of microeconomic behavior and macroeconomic performance provides a basis for the design of policies to deal with stagflation.
This book was originally published by Macmillan in 1936. It was voted the top Academic Book that Shaped Modern Britain by Academic Book Week (UK) in 2017, and in 2011 was placed on Time Magazine's top 100 non-fiction books written in English since 1923. Reissued with a fresh Introduction by the Nobel-prize winner Paul Krugman and a new Afterword by Keynes’ biographer Robert Skidelsky, this important work is made available to a new generation. The General Theory of Employment, Interest and Money transformed economics and changed the face of modern macroeconomics. Keynes’ argument is based on the idea that the level of employment is not determined by the price of labour, but by the spending of money. It gave way to an entirely new approach where employment, inflation and the market economy are concerned. Highly provocative at its time of publication, this book and Keynes’ theories continue to remain the subject of much support and praise, criticism and debate. Economists at any stage in their career will enjoy revisiting this treatise and observing the relevance of Keynes’ work in today’s contemporary climate.
"The essential work from the Nobel Prize-winning virtuoso of twentieth-century economics, translated to English for the first time. Since Adam Smith developed a verbal theory of how the economy worked, economists have used mathematical equations to try to model such terms. Few figures advanced this frontier more than twentieth-century French economist Maurice Allais, whose sweeping intellectual contributions earned the Nobel Prize for economics and drew comparisons to the works of Leon Walras to Vilfredo Pareto. Allais's formidable accomplishments have been largely unread by non-Francophone readers due to the challenge of their translation; the works' technical erudition and occasional density have vexed generations of translators and publishers. The effects of this gap are immeasurable. As Paul Samuelson wrote, "Had Allais's earliest writings been in English, a whole generation of economic theory would have taken a different course." Economy and Interest is the milestone translation of Allais's most influential and acclaimed work, one whose staggering original findings predate their accepted formulations by other famed economists decades later. In its sweep and technical virtuosity, along with its fundamental rewriting of how neoclassical economics were formulated, is certain to stagger, delight, and challenge new generations of English-language readers."--
The advice is sound; the client seems eager; and then... nothing happens! Too often, this is the experience that financial professionals encounter in their daily work. When good recommendations go unimplemented, clients’ well-being is compromised, opportunities are lost, and the professional relationship grows strained. Advice that Sticks takes aim at the problem of financial non-adherence. Written by a neuropsychologist and financial change expert, this book examines the five main factors that determine whether a client will follow through with financial advice. Individual client psychology plays a role in non-adherence; so, too, do sociocultural and environmental factors, general advice characteristics, and specific challenges pertaining to the emotionally loaded domain of money. Perhaps most surprising, however, is the extent to which advice-givers themselves can foil implementation. A great deal of non-adherence is due to preventable mistakes made by financial professionals and their teams. The author integrates her extensive clinical and consulting experience with research findings from the fields of positive psychology, behavioural economics, neuroscience, and medicine. What emerges is a thoughtful, funny, but above all practical guide for anyone who makes a living providing financial advice. It will become an indispensable handbook for people working with clients across the wealth spectrum.
This book aims to promote the study, research and applications in the design, assessment, prediction, and optimal management of life-cycle performance, safety, reliability, and risk of civil structures and infrastructure systems. The contribution in each chapter presents state-of-the-art as well as emerging applications related to key aspects of the life-cycle civil engineering field. The chapters in this book were originally published as a special issue of Structure and Infrastructure Engineering.
Safety, Reliability, Risk and Life-Cycle Performance of Structures and Infrastructures contains the plenary lectures and papers presented at the 11th International Conference on STRUCTURAL SAFETY AND RELIABILITY (ICOSSAR2013, New York, NY, USA, 16-20 June 2013), and covers major aspects of safety, reliability, risk and life-cycle performance of str
Brookings Papers on Economic Activity (BPEA) provides academic and business economists, government officials, and members of the financial and business communities with timely research on current economic issues. Contents: On Secular Stagnation in the Industrialized World, Lukasz Rachel and Lawrence H. Summers A Forensic Examination of China's National Accounts, Wei Chen, Xilu Chen, Chang-Tai Hsieh, and Zheng Song A Unified Approach to Measuring u*, Richard K. Crump, Stefano Eusepi, Maric Giannoni, and Ays ̧egül S ̧ahin Fiscal Space and the Aftermath of Financial Crises: How It Matters and Why, Christina D. Romer and David H. Romer Okun Revisited: Who Benefits Most from a Strong Economy? Stephanies R. Aaronson, Mary C. Daly, William L. Wascher, and David W. Wilcox On the Economics of a Carbon Tax for the United States, Gilbert E. Metcalf
Offering an accessible and thorough introduction to economics, this text offers real-world examples to bring theory to life. Students and lecturers will benefit from the vast array of supplements, including a companion website with extra material and resources