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This study assesses land use changes and related greenhouse gas (GHG) emission impacts due to expansion of corn-based ethanol production in the United States. The land use change estimates discussed in this paper were developed for a scenario where U.S. corn-based ethanol production expands from approximately 2 billion gallons per year in 2000/2001 to 15 billion gallons per year (bgy) in 2015/16. The overall conclusion of this report is that 15 bgy of corn ethanol production in 2015/16 should not result in new forest or grassland conversion in the U.S. or abroad.
The Energy Independence and Security Act (EISA) of 2007 established specific targets for the production of biofuel in the U.S. Meeting these targets will increase demand for traditional ag. commodities used to produce ethanol, resulting in land-use, production, and price changes in the farm sector. This report summarizes the estimated effects of meeting the EISA targets for 2015 on regional ag. production and the environment. Meeting EISA targets for ethanol production will expand U.S. cropped acreage by 5 million acres by 2015, an increase of 1.6% over what would otherwise be expected. Much of the growth comes from corn acreage, which increases by 3.5% over baseline projections. Water quality and soil carbon will also be affected.
Land has long been overlooked in economics. That is now changing. A substantial part of the solution to the climate crisis may lie in growing crops for fuel and using trees for storing carbon. This book investigates the potential of these options to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, estimates the costs to the economy, and analyses the trade-offs with growing food. The first part presents new databases that are necessary to underpin policy-relevant research in the field of climate change while describing and critically assessing the underlying data, the methodologies used, and the first applications. Together, the new data and the extended models allow for a thorough and comprehensive analysis of a land use and climate policy. This book outlines key empirical and analytical issues associated with modelling land use and land use change in the context of global climate change policy. It places special emphasis on the economy-wide competition for land and other resources, especially; The implications of changes in land use for the cost of climate change mitigation, Land use change as a result of mitigation, and Feedback from changes in the global climate to land use. By offering synthesis and evaluation of a variety of different approaches to this challenging field of research, this book will serve as a key reference for future work in the economic analysis of land use and climate change policy.
Using economic models and empirical analysis, this volume examines a wide range of agricultural and biofuel policy issues and their effects on American agricultural and related agrarian insurance markets. Beginning with a look at the distribution of funds by insurance programs—created to support farmers but often benefiting crop processors instead—the book then examines the demand for biofuel and the effects of biofuel policies on agricultural price uncertainty. Also discussed are genetically engineered crops, which are assuming an increasingly important role in arbitrating tensions between energy production, environmental protection, and the global food supply. Other contributions discuss the major effects of genetic engineering on worldwide food markets. By addressing some of the most challenging topics at the intersection of agriculture and biotechnology, this volume informs crucial debates.
In the United States, we have come to depend on plentiful and inexpensive energy to support our economy and lifestyles. In recent years, many questions have been raised regarding the sustainability of our current pattern of high consumption of nonrenewable energy and its environmental consequences. Further, because the United States imports about 55 percent of the nation's consumption of crude oil, there are additional concerns about the security of supply. Hence, efforts are being made to find alternatives to our current pathway, including greater energy efficiency and use of energy sources that could lower greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions such as nuclear and renewable sources, including solar, wind, geothermal, and biofuels. The United States has a long history with biofuels and the nation is on a course charted to achieve a substantial increase in biofuels. Renewable Fuel Standard evaluates the economic and environmental consequences of increasing biofuels production as a result of Renewable Fuels Standard, as amended by EISA (RFS2). The report describes biofuels produced in 2010 and those projected to be produced and consumed by 2022, reviews model projections and other estimates of the relative impact on the prices of land, and discusses the potential environmental harm and benefits of biofuels production and the barriers to achieving the RFS2 consumption mandate. Policy makers, investors, leaders in the transportation sector, and others with concerns for the environment, economy, and energy security can rely on the recommendations provided in this report.
In response to the Renewable Fuel Standard, the U.S. transportation sector now consumes a substantial amount (13.3 billion gallons in 2010) of ethanol. A key motivation for these mandates is to expand the consumption of biofuels in road transportation to both reduce foreign oil dependency and to reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the consumption of fossil fuels in transportation. In this paper, we present the impacts of several biofuels expansion scenarios for the U.S. in which scaled increases in the U.S. corn ethanol mandates are modeled to explore the scalability of GHG impacts. The impacts show both expected and surprising results. As expected, the area of land used to grow biofuel crops increases with the size of the policy in the U.S., and some land-use changes occur abroad due to trade in agricultural commodities. Because the land-use changes happen largely in the U.S., there is an increase in U.S. land-use emissions when natural lands are converted to agricultural use in the policy scenarios. Further, the emissions impacts in the U.S. and the rest of the world in these scenarios, including land-use emissions, scale in direct proportion to the size of the U.S. corn ethanol mandates. On the other hand, the land-use emissions that occur in the rest of the world are disproportionately larger per hectare of change due to conversions of more carbon-rich forests to cultivate crops and feed livestock.
"Biofuels are currently in the middle of a heated academic and public policy debate. Biofuel production has increased fivefold in the past decade and is expected to further double by 2020. Most of this expansion will happen in developing nations. This volume is the first of its kind, providing a comprehensive overview of the biofuel debate in developing countries. The chapters are written by a multidisciplinary team of experts, exposing the key drivers and impacts of biofuel production and use. The book covers impacts as diverse as air pollution, biodiversity loss, deforestation, energy security, food security, greenhouse gas emissions, land use change, rural development, water consumption and other socioeconomic issues. Its wide focus accommodates examples from countries in Africa, America and Asia. As such, this book will become an indispensable companion to academics, practitioners and policy makers who wish to know more about biofuel issues in the developing world"--Provided by publisher.
Expansion of ethanol production in the United States has raised concerns regarding its land-use change effects. However, little is known about the extent to which observed land use change in the United States can be attributed to ethanol plant proximity or is caused by changes in crop prices that may be partly induced by expansion in ethanol production. This study aims to examine the determinants of changes in corn acreage and aggregate crop acreage by simultaneously identifying the effects of establishment of ethanol plants serving as terminal markets for corn and the effects of changes in crop prices in the United States between 2003 and 2014. Our results show that corn acreage and total acreage are fairly inelastic with respect to both changes in ethanol capacity in the vicinity, as well as changes in crop prices. Our estimates of acreage elasticity with respect to corn ethanol production are smaller than those obtained by previous studies that disregard the price effect on crop acreage. We find that, ceteris paribus, the increase in ethanol capacity alone led to a modest 3% increase in corn acreage and less than a 1% increase in total crop acreage by 2012 when compared to 2008. The effect of corn price and aggregate crop price on acreage change from 2008 to 2012 was more than twice larger than that of effective ethanol production capacity over this period; but this price effect was largely reversed by the downturn in crop prices after 2012. This study shows that land-use change is not a static phenomenon and that it is important to examine how it evolves in response to various factors that may change over time.
In The Revenge of Gaia , bestselling author James Lovelock- father of climate studies and originator of the influential Gaia theory which views the entire earth as a living meta-organism-provides a definitive look at our imminent global crisis. In this disturbing new book, Lovelock guides us toward a hard reality: soon, we may not be able to alter the oncoming climate crisis. Lovelock's influential Gaia theory, one of the building blocks of modern climate science, conceives of the Earth, including the atmosphere, oceans, biosphere and upper layers of rock, as a single living super-organism, regulating its internal environment much as an animal regulates its body temperature and chemical balance. But now, says Lovelock, that organism is sick. It is running a fever born of the combination of a sun whose intensity is slowly growing over millions of years, and an atmosphere whose greenhouse gases have recently spiked due to human activity. Earth will adjust to these stresses, but on time scales measured in the hundreds of millennia. It is already too late, Lovelock says, to prevent the global climate from "flipping" into an entirely new equilibrium state that will leave the tropics uninhabitable, and force migration to the poles. The Revenge of Gaia explains the stress the planetary system is under and how humans are contributing to it, what the consequences will be, and what humanity must do to rescue itself.