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We quantify the emergence of biofuel markets and its impact on U.S. and world agriculture for the coming decade using the multi-market, multi-commodity international FAPRI (Food and Agricultural Policy Research Institute) model. The model incorporates the trade-offs between biofuel, feed, and food production and consumption and international feedback effects of the emergence through world commodity prices and trade. We examine land allocation by type of crop, and pasture use for countries growing feedstock for ethanol (corn, sorghum, wheat, sugarcane, and other grains) and major crops competing with feedstock for land resources such as oilseeds. We shock the model with exogenous changes in ethanol demand, first in the United States, then in Brazil, China, the European Union-25, and India, and compute shock multipliers for land allocation decisions for crops and countries of interest. The multipliers show at the margin how sensitive land allocation is to the growing demand for ethanol. Land moves away from major crops and pasture competing for resources with feedstock crops. Because of the high U.S. tariff on ethanol, higher U.S. demand for ethanol translates into a U.S. ethanol production expansion. The latter has global effects on land allocation as higher coarse grain prices transmit worldwide. Changes in U.S. coarse grain prices also affect U.S. wheat and oilseed prices, which are all transmitted to world markets. In contrast, expansion in Brazil ethanol use and production chiefly affects land used for sugarcane production in Brazil and to a lesser extent in other sugar-producing countries, but with small impacts on other land uses in most countries.
We investigate how the structures of local corn procurement markets shape the effect of expansion in ethanol production on corn planting decisions in surrounding areas. We first characterize competition intensity as a function of the spatial structure of plant capacities and then econometrically estimate the response in corn acreage to competition intensity at the grid-cell level. We use the estimated parameters to conduct factual and counterfactual experiments quantifying the effect of different sources of capacity expansion on competition intensity and, ultimately, spatial patterns of land cover. We find that an expansion of ethanol capacity of a given magnitude can have disparate effects on total land conversion to corn depending on its source, that is, whether it is due to plant entry, expansion of an incumbent plant, or the location where the expansion occurs. Expansions that increase competition intensity the most also trigger the most land conversion. This is because, as spatial competition for corn intensifies, plants are forced to procure more from the intensive margin, where additional corn can only be obtained from land conversion. We also find that competitive spillovers trigger land conversion in grid cells that are not within the procurement area of a new plant or of a plant that expands capacity. Our results underscore the importance of considering market structure when quantifying local land use changes associated with ethanol capacity expansion.
Using economic models and empirical analysis, this volume examines a wide range of agricultural and biofuel policy issues and their effects on American agricultural and related agrarian insurance markets. Beginning with a look at the distribution of funds by insurance programs—created to support farmers but often benefiting crop processors instead—the book then examines the demand for biofuel and the effects of biofuel policies on agricultural price uncertainty. Also discussed are genetically engineered crops, which are assuming an increasingly important role in arbitrating tensions between energy production, environmental protection, and the global food supply. Other contributions discuss the major effects of genetic engineering on worldwide food markets. By addressing some of the most challenging topics at the intersection of agriculture and biotechnology, this volume informs crucial debates.
Biofuels are currently in the middle of a heated academic and public policy debate. Biofuel production has increased fivefold in the past decade and is expected to further double by 2020. Most of this expansion will happen in developing nations. This volume is the first of its kind, providing a comprehensive overview of the biofuel debate in developing countries. The chapters are written by a multidisciplinary team of experts, exposing the key drivers and impacts of biofuel production and use. The book covers impacts as diverse as air pollution, biodiversity loss, deforestation, energy security, food security, greenhouse gas emissions, land use change, rural development, water consumption and other socioeconomic issues. Its wide focus accommodates examples from countries in Africa, America and Asia. As such, this book will become an indispensable companion to academics, practitioners and policy makers who wish to know more about biofuel issues in the developing world.
Summarizes the current state of knowledge of the drivers of land-use change and describes the analytic methods used to estimate the impact of biofuel feedstock production on land use. The larger the impact of domestic biofuels feedstock production on commodity prices and the availability of exports, the larger the international land-use effects are likely to be. The amount of pressure placed on land internationally will depend in part on how much of the land needed for biofuel production is met through an expansion of agricultural land in the U.S. If crop yield per acre increases through more intensive management or new crop varieties, then less land is needed to grow a particular amount of that crop. Illustrations. This is a print on demand report.
Interest in biofuels began with oil shocks in the 1970’s, but the more rapid development and consumption of biofuel industry in recent years has been primarily driven by mandates, subsidies, climate change concerns, emissions targets and energy security. From 2004 to 2006, fuel ethanol grew by 26% and biodiesel grew by 172%. As biofuel production continues to expand, investments in capacity expansion and research and development have been made. The 2008 food crisis emphasized the need to re-examine biofuel consequences. Biofuels remain an important renewable energy resource to substitute for fossil fuels, particularly in the transportation sector, yet biofuels’ success is still uncertain. The future of biofuels in the energy supply mix relies on mitigating potential and improving the environmental gains. This book brings together leading authorities on biofuel from the World Bank to examine all of the impacts of biofuel (economic, social, environmental) within a unified framework and in a global perspective, making it of interest to academics in agricultural and environmental economics as well as industry and policy-makers.
Concerns about energy security, uncertainty about oil prices, declining oil reserves, and global climate change are fueling a shift towards bioenergy as a renewable alternative to fossil fuels. Public policies and private investments around the globe are aiming to increase local capacity to produce biofuels. A key constraint to the expansion of biofuel production is the limited amount of land available to meet the needs for fuel, feed, and food in the coming decades. Large-scale biofuel production raises concerns about food versus fuel tradeoffs, about demands for natural resources such as water, and about potential impacts on environmental quality. The book is organized into five parts. The introductory part provides a context for the emerging economic and policy challenges related to bioenergy and the motivations for biofuels as an energy source. The second part of the handbook includes chapters that examine the implications of expanded production of first generation biofuels for the allocation of land between food and fuel and for food/feed prices and trade in biofuels as well as the potential for technology improvements to mitigate the food vs. fuel competition for land. Chapters in the third part examine the infrastructural and logistical challenges posed by large scale biofuel production and the factors that will influence the location of biorefineries and the mix of feedstocks they use. The fourth part includes chapters that examine the environmental implications of biofuels, their implications for the design of policies and the unintended environmental consequences of existing biofuel policies. The final part presents economic analysis of the market, social welfare, and distributional effects of biofuel policies.
Land use impacts of biofuel expansion have attracted a tremendous amount of attention because of the implications for the climate, the environment, and the food supply. To examine these impacts, we set up an economic framework that links input use and land allocation decisions with ethanol and agricultural commodity markets. Crops can be substitutes or complements in supply depending on the relative magnitude of three effects of crop prices: total cropland effect, land share effect, and input use effect. We show that with unregulated free markets, total cropland area increases with corn prices whether crops are substitutes or complements in supply. Similarly, higher corn yields from exogenous technical changes lead to cropland expansion. The impacts of yield increases for other crops are ambiguous. With a quantity mandate for ethanol, higher mandates mean larger cropland area if corn and other crops are substitutes in demand. For a given mandate, yield improvement causes total cropland to expand if crop demand is elastic enough, or to contract under a very general condition if crop demand is sufficiently inelastic.
What do economists know about land-and how they know? The Oxford Handbook of Land Economics describes the latest developments in the fields of economics that examine land, including natural resource economics, environmental economics, regional science, and urban economics. The handbook argues, first, that land is a theme that integrates these fields and second, that productive integration increasingly occurs not just within economics but also across disciplines. Greater recognition and integration stimulates cross-fertilization among the fields of land economics research. By providing a comprehensive survey of land-related work in several economics fields, this handbook provides the basic tools needed for economists to redefine the scope and focus of their work to better incorporate the contemporary thinking from other fields and to push out the frontiers of land economics. The first section presents recent advances in the analysis of major drivers of land use change, focusing on economic development and various land-use markets. The second section presents economic research on the environmental and socio-economic impacts of land use and land use change. The third section addresses six cutting-edge approaches for land economics research, including spatial econometric, simulation, and experimental methods. The section also includes a synthetic chapter critically reviewing methodological advances. The fourth section covers policy issues. Four chapters disentangle the economics of land conservation and preservation, while three chapters examine the economic analysis of the legal institutions of land use. These chapters focus on law and economic problems of permissible government control of land in the U.S. context.