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We study the role of uncertainty shocks in explaining unemployment dynamics, separating out the role of aggregate and sectoral channels. Using S&P500 data from the first quarter of 1957 to third quarter of 2014, we construct separate indices to measure aggregate and sectoral uncertainty and compare their effects on the unemployment rate in a standard macroeconomic vector autoregressive (VAR) model. We find that aggregate uncertainty leads to an immediate increase in unemployment, with the impact dissipating within a year. In contrast, sectoral uncertainty has a long-lived impact on unemployment, with the peak impact occurring after two years. The results are consistent with a view that the impact of aggregate uncertainty occurs through a “wait-and-see” mechanism while increased sectoral uncertainty raises unemployment by requiring greater reallocation across sectors.
This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 6th International Workshop on Internet and Network Economics, WINE 2010, held in Stanford, USA, in December 2010. The 52 revised full papers presented were carefully reviewed and selected from 95 submissions. The papers are organized in 33 regular papers and 19 short papers.
First published in 1983. This text is designed to enable intermediate and advanced students to attain familiarity with the theoretical concepts used in labour market analysis, and to apply them fruitfully to the economic problem of labour markets. Each chapter of Section I deals with a different theoretical development of the basic labour market model of utility maximising labour supply and the marginal productivity theory of labour demand. In addition, the authors discuss in depth uncharted territory including the analysis of uncertainty and discrimination in labour markets and advances in human capital theory, in each case covering the implications both for equity and the efficient allocation of resources. Each chapter of Section II analyses an important economic problem - for instance wage determination, unemployment and inflation - using the theoretical insights derived from Section I. The contributions of different theoretical developments are assessed by reference to the current state of empirical research into labour market problems. This book stresses the interaction between labour market mechanisms and also between market and non-market forces in the belief that this will lead to a greater understanding of the operation of the labour market than can be gained by viewing each theoretical development in isolation from the others.
This paper examines inflation dynamics in the United States since 1960, with a particular focus on the Great Recession. A puzzle emerges when Phillips curves estimated over 1960-2007 are ussed to predice inflation over 2008-2010: inflation should have fallen by more than it did. We resolve this puzzle with two modifications of the Phillips curve, both suggested by theories of costly price adjustment: we measure core inflation with the median CPI inflation rate, and we allow the slope of the Phillips curve to change with the level and vairance of inflation. We then examine the hypothesis of anchored inflation expectations. We find that expectations have been fully "shock-anchored" since the 1980s, while "level anchoring" has been gradual and partial, but significant. It is not clear whether expectations are sufficiently anchored to prevent deflation over the next few years. Finally, we show that the Great Recession provides fresh evidence against the New Keynesian Phillips curve with rational expectations.
Globalization, Uncertainty and Women's Careers assesses the effects of globalization on the life courses of women in thirteen countries across Europe and America in the second half of the 20th century. The book represents the first-ever longitudinal analysis of micro-level data from these OECD countries focusing exclusively on women's relationship to the labor market in a globalizing world. The contributors thoroughly examine women's employment entries, exits and job mobility and present evidence of women's increased labor market attachment and reduced employment quality in most of the countries studied. They also systematically consider the life course changes influenced by larger transformations in society and, in doing so, explicitly link the phenomena of globalization to individual women's lives in Europe and North America.
Policymakers and business practitioners are eager to gain access to reliable information on the state of the economy for timely decision making. More so now than ever. Traditional economic indicators have been criticized for delayed reporting, out-of-date methodology, and neglecting some aspects of the economy. Recent advances in economic theory, econometrics, and information technology have fueled research in building broader, more accurate, and higher-frequency economic indicators. This volume contains contributions from a group of prominent economists who address alternative economic indicators, including indicators in the financial market, indicators for business cycles, and indicators of economic uncertainty.
What happens if an employer cuts wages by one cent? Much of labor economics is built on the assumption that all the workers will quit immediately. Here, Alan Manning mounts a systematic challenge to the standard model of perfect competition. Monopsony in Motion stands apart by analyzing labor markets from the real-world perspective that employers have significant market (or monopsony) power over their workers. Arguing that this power derives from frictions in the labor market that make it time-consuming and costly for workers to change jobs, Manning re-examines much of labor economics based on this alternative and equally plausible assumption. The book addresses the theoretical implications of monopsony and presents a wealth of empirical evidence. Our understanding of the distribution of wages, unemployment, and human capital can all be improved by recognizing that employers have some monopsony power over their workers. Also considered are policy issues including the minimum wage, equal pay legislation, and caps on working hours. In a monopsonistic labor market, concludes Manning, the "free" market can no longer be sustained as an ideal and labor economists need to be more open-minded in their evaluation of labor market policies. Monopsony in Motion will represent for some a new fundamental text in the advanced study of labor economics, and for others, an invaluable alternative perspective that henceforth must be taken into account in any serious consideration of the subject.
Exacerbated by the Great Recession, youth transitions to employment and adulthood have become increasingly protracted, precarious, and differentiated by gender, ethnicity, and socioeconomic status. Youth Labor in Transition examines young people's integration into employment, alongside the decisions and consequences of migrating to find work and later returning home. The authors identify key policy challenges for the future related to NEETS, overeducation, self-employment, and ethnic differences in outcomes. This illustrates the need to encompass a wider understanding of youth employment and job insecurity by including an analysis of economic production and how it relates to social reproduction of labor if policy intervention is to be effective. The mapping and extensive analysis in this book are the result of a 3«-year, European Union-funded research project (Strategic Transitions for Youth Labour in Europe, or STYLE; http://www.style-research.eu) coordinated by Jacqueline O'Reilly. With an overall budget of just under 5 million euros and involving 25 research partners; an international advisory network and local advisory boards of employers, unions, and policymakers; and non-governmental organizations from more than 20 European countries, STYLE is one of the largest European Commission-funded research projects to exist on this topic. Consequently, this book will appeal to an array of audiences, including academic and policy researchers in sociology, political science, economics, management studies, and more particular labor market and social policy; policy communities; and bachelor's- and master's-level students in courses on European studies or any of the aforementioned subject areas.