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The government’s plans to reform the tax system and administration are well founded. The Central Bank of Aruba is to be commended for its prudent management of monetary policy, as demonstrated by the continued credibility and strength of the peg to the U.S. dollar, buttressed by a robust foreign reserve position. There has been significant progress in expanding and strengthening the supervisory and regulatory framework of financial activities. Renewed initiatives on structural reforms will improve efficiency in the use of resources and attract strategic investment.
This 2002 Article IV Consultation for the Kingdom of the Netherlands—Aruba highlights that after growing at more than 4 percent per year in 1996–2000, the Aruba economy experienced two years of retrenchment, with GDP falling an estimated 1.2 percent in 2001 and 3.8 percent in 2002. This downturn reflected a lull in investment activity, but especially weak tourism following the United States recession and the terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001. In 2003, sharply higher private and public investment and a modest revival in tourism should boost economic growth to more than 4 percent.
This 2019 Article IV Consultation highlights that Aruba’s economic recovery continues, although at a slowing pace. The authorities have managed well the impact of the crisis in Venezuela through diversification of product markets and tourism sources. Nonetheless, a deepening of the crisis is a downside risk—mainly through a potentially sizable influx of immigrants and refugees. It is recommended to identify additional reform measures to achieve Aruba’s fiscal targets. These measures should involve a mix of revenue increases and expenditure restraint, and be prioritized, sequenced, equitable, and well-communicated to minimize implementation risks and ensure the measures’ durability. The government devised a reform agenda with fiscal consolidation as a key pillar. Additional measures are needed to achieve the authorities’ fiscal targets. The additional adjustment should contain a mix of tax reforms and expenditure rationalization. The fiscal measures in 2019 are expected to deliver a large upfront increase in revenues but it will be important to strike a balance between revenue increases and expenditure restraint in subsequent years.
This 2015 Article IV Consultation highlights that Aruba has been recovering from a severe double-dip recession. The economy faced two major shocks over the past five years—the global financial crisis and shutdown of the Valero oil refinery in 2012. After a strong recovery in 2013 with growth reaching 4.75 percent, the pace of activity moderated in 2014. In 2015, growth is projected to rise to 2.25 percent. The tourism sector—the mainstay of the Aruban economy—is envisaged to grow, albeit at a slower rate. Moreover, domestic demand is slated to recover notably amid subsiding policy uncertainty and as key public-private partnership projects move forward.
The Aruban economy recovered to the pre-pandemic level of real GDP by 2022, supported by a robust rebound in tourism. The fiscal position has been improving but the debt-to-GDP ratio remains above the pre-pandemic level. The banking sector is well capitalized, liquid, and profitable. Restoring macroeconomic balance and bolstering medium-term growth are the principal policy tasks facing the authorities.
The Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions has been published by the IMF since 1950. It draws on information available to the IMF from a number of sources, including that provided in the course of official staff visits to member countries, and has been prepared in close consultation with national authorities.
Annual Report on Exchange Arrangements and Exchange Restrictions 2020
This 1999 Article IV Consultation highlights that Aruba’s real GDP grew at an annual rate of some 3 percent in 1998, while inflation remained subdued at about 2 percent. Comparable rates of satisfactory growth and low inflation have characterized the island’s development since the mid-1990s, following a period of double-digit growth when an investment boom in the hotel sector brought about the transformation of Aruba into a tourism-based economy. The outlook for satisfactory growth and low inflation had been threatened, however, by an undue relaxation of fiscal policy in 1996 and continued laxity through mid-1998.
This is the 65th issue of the AREAER. It provides a description of the foreign exchange arrangements, exchange and trade systems, and capital controls of all IMF member countries. It also provides information on the operation of foreign exchange markets and controls on international trade. It describes controls on capital transactions and measures implemented in the financial sector, including prudential measures. In addition, it reports on exchange measures imposed by member countries for security reasons. A single table provides a snapshot of the exchange and trade systems of all IMF member countries. The Overview describes in detail how the general trend toward foreign exchange liberalization continued during 2013, alongside a strengthening of the financial sector regulatory framework. A Special Topic essay examines the dynamics and evolution of capital flows. The AREAER is available in several formats. The Overview in print and online, and the detailed information for each of the 191 member countries and territories is included on a CD that accompanies the printed Overview and in an online database, AREAER Online. In addition to the information on the exchange and trade system of IMF member countries in 2013, AREAER Online contains historical data published in previous issues of the AREAER. It is searchable by year, country, and category of measure and allows cross country comparisons for time series.