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This book, by Christopher Browne with Douglas A. Scott, reviews the economic progress that Fiji, Kiribati, Papua New Guinea, Solomon Islands, Tonga, Vanuatu, and Western Samoa have made since independence. An overview of the region examines development strategies, external economic relations, the role of the private sector, and the evolution of financial structures. Seven country studies describe the main characteristics of each economy, analyze performance over the past decade, and provide detailed statistics suitable for cross-country comparison.
This book identifies the challenges, solutions, and opportunities offered by smart energy grids (SEGs) with regard to the storage and regulation of diversified energy sources such as photovoltaic, wind, and ocean energy. It provides a detailed analysis of the stability and availability of renewable sources, and assesses relevant socioeconomic structures. The book also presents case studies to maximize readers’ understanding of energy grid management and optimization. Moreover, it offers guidelines on the design, implementation, and maintenance of the (SEG) for island countries.
This paper proposes an easy-to-follow approach to track merchandise trade using vessel data and applies it to Pacific island countries. Pacific islands rely heavily on imports and maritime transport for trade. They are also highly vulnerable to climate change and natural disasters that pose risks to ports and supply chains. Using satellite-based vessel tracking data from the UN Global Platform, we construct daily indicators of port and trade activity for Pacific island countries. The algorithm significantly advances estimation techniques of previous studies, particularly by employing ways to overcome challenges with the estimation of cargo payloads, using detailed information on shipping liner schedules to validate port calls, and applying country-specific information to define port boundaries. The approach can complement and help fill gaps in official data, provide early warning signs of turning points in economic activity, and assist policymakers and international organizations to monitor and provide timely responses to shocks (e.g., COVID-19).
Growth has been sluggish in Pacific island countries (PICs). High cost of credit is likely one of the reasons. While the small scale, geographic dispersion, and vulnerability to shocks increase the cost and risk of credit in this country group, there is considerable variability in interest rate spreads both across countries and over time. This paper examines the determinants of lending rates and interest rate spreads in a panel of six PICs, extending the literature that was largely descriptive in nature or focused on a single country. Our results are in line with economic theory. We find that the size of the economy is negatively correlated with spreads, confirming the importance of scale. Inflation appears to have only marginal impact on spreads. High loan loss provisions and nonperforming loans increase the cost of credit. So does banking system concentration. Higher institutional quality is associated with lower spreads.
The fishing industry benefits the people and economies of the Pacific in various ways but the full value of these benefits is not reflected in the region's statistics. Records may be maintained but they are not complete, or accurate, or comparable. The research summarized in this report reaffirms the importance of this sector to the economies and societies of the Pacific island countries. The research reveals that the full value of fisheries is likely to have eluded statisticians, and therefore fisheries authorities, government decision makers, and donors. But its value has never escaped the fisher, fish trader, and fish processor. The difference in appreciation between public and private individuals must raise the question of whether fisheries are receiving adequate attention from the public sector---including the necessary management and protection, appropriate research, development, extension and training, and sufficient investment.
This departmental paper provides an in-depth overview of access to climate finance for Pacific Island Countries, evaluating successes and challenges faced by countries and proposes a way forward to unlock access to climate funds.
Regional integration of Pacific Island countries (PICs) with Australia, New Zealand, and emerging Asia has increased over the last two decades. PICs have become more exposed to the region’s business cycles, and spillovers from regional economies are more important for PICs than from advanced economies outside the region. While strong linkages with Asia would help in the event of a global downturn, PICs remain particularly vulnerable to global commodity price shocks. In this paper, we use a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) for each PIC to gauge the impact of global and regional growth spillovers. The analysis reveals that the impact on PICs’ growth from an adverse oil shock would be substantial, and in some cases even larger than from a negative global demand shock. We also assess the spillovers to the financial sector from the deterioration of the global outlook. PICs should continue to rebuild policy buffers and implement growth-oriented structural reforms to ensure sustained and inclusive growth.
The primary objective of this report is to present solid empirical evidence of hardship, vulnerability to shocks, and risk management in the Pacific region. The report is primarily a stocktaking exercise that brings together existing evidence and new analysis of available data using a consistent framework. The report takes a “micro-” perspective—that of the individual and household—but accounts for the important role of communities, the state, and international partners. As such, it is a complement to the studies that analyze the macroeconomic context of the Pacific or that analyze rich subnational data. The purpose of building this solid evidentiary base is to catalyze needed future work, including new data collection, rather than to provide the final answer to any of the important questions addressed in the report.
Pacific island countries are highly vulnerable to various natural disasters which are destructive, unpredictable and occur frequently. The frequency and scale of these shocks heightens the importance of medium-term economic and fiscal planning to minimize the adverse impact of disasters on economic development. This paper identifies the intensity of natural disasters for each country in the Pacific based on the distribution of damage and population affected by disasters, and estimates the impact of disasters on economic growth and international trade using a panel regression. The results show that “severe” disasters have a significant and negative impact on economic growth and lead to a deterioration of the fiscal and trade balance. We also find that the negative impact on growth is stronger for more intense disasters. Going further this paper proposes a simple and consistent method to adjust IMF staff’s economic projections and debt sustainability analysis for disaster shocks for the Pacific islands. Better incorporating the economic impact of natural disasters in the medium- and long-term economic planning would help policy makers improve fiscal policy decisions and to be better adapted and prepared for natural disasters.