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The fall 2021 issue of the Iraq Economic Monitor provides an in-depth review of the latest macroeconomic and policy developments amidst a global recovery in international oil markets and as COVID-19 restrictions begin to ease. As a result, the monitor finds that the economic prospects for Iraq have improved, with GDP projected to grow from 2.6 percent in 2021 to exceed 6 percent in 2022-23, turning both fiscal and external deficits into surpluses. Nevertheless, upstream risks like oil shocks, droughts, and new COVID-19 variants; coupled with fiscal risks like growing budget rigidities, slow clearance of arrears, large exposure of state-owned banks and the central bank to the sovereign, and public investment management constraints that impact public service delivery can all materialize anytime to turn the tide as Iraq's recent history has repeatedly shown. The breadth and depth of these challenges underscore the need for an accelerated implementation of structural reforms by the new government along the lines of the White of Paper. The Special Focus of the report discusses water scarcity and the degradation of water quality in Iraq. It highlights the large losses water issues impose across multiple sectors of the economy and the impact on vulnerable people. Indeed, a 20 percent reduction in water supply with changes in crop yields could reduce real GDP in Iraq by up to 4 percent, or US$6.6 billion. The monitor highlights the importance of dealing with those issues to reduce fragilities and identifies three reform areas to improve resilience to water scarcity and climate change impacts through water efficiency, productivity, and demand management policies; institutional solutions; and regional solutions.
Recognizing the severity of the crisis, the GoI devised a national reform plan (the white paper) that sets out a old blueprint of structural reforms to achieve sustainable medium-term growth through economic diversification and boosting private sector growth and private sector job creation. The GoI has also devised an implementation and governance framework for the white paper in which it proposed a detailed reform matrix and launched a High Reform Council headed by the Prime Minister to accompany the implementation. Actions have already been realized starting with the reforms adopted in the 2021 budget law and other areas including in the business environment and the financial sector. The ultimate success of the reforms though depends on the political will and public support to implement the proposed measures and lead the country out of a long-standing fragility trap. Iraq's economic outlook hinges on global oil markets prospects, the implementation of the white paper reforms, and on the evolution of COVID-19 (coronavirus). The economy is forecast to gradually recover on the back of rising oil prices and rising OPEC+ production quotas. GDP is projected to grow by 1.9 percent in 2021 and 6.3 percent on average over the subsequent two years (Table 1). Non-oil GDP is forecast to recover in 2021, growing by 5.5 percent before converging to historically low potential growth trend in 2022-23. The currency devaluation is estimated to push inflation to 8.5 percent in 2021 due to limited capacity for import substitution. This will present an additional pressure on Iraqi households' wellbeing. The fiscal stance remains expansionary with only limited reform measures being included in the 2021 budget law after an extended deliberation in the Parliament. Higher oil revenues in tandem with the devaluation effect on those receipts are projected to narrow the fiscal deficit to 5.4 percent of GDP in 2021. Financing needs are forecast to remain elevated compared to pre-COVID-19 levels, averaging at 13.7 billion Dollars per year (7.5 percent of GDP) in the outlook period (2021-2023). The 2021 approved budget includes limited reforms such as new consumption taxes and better targeting of PDS transfers which are in line with the GoI white paper. If implemented they could help moderate the fiscal deficit and exchange rate pressures. However, more structural issues such as public wages and pension rigidities remain unaddressed.
Iraq's economy is rebounding thanks to rising oil output and a recovery in domestic economic activity after the pandemic. Higher government oil revenues, driven by increased export prices and quantities, have significantly strengthened the fiscal position and international reserves. Without deeper structural reforms and economic diversification, Iraq's extreme oil dependence leaves it vulnerable to commodity price volatility. Persistent high oil prices bode well for the economic outlook, but global demand is expected to gradually weaken. Downside risks to the economic outlook relate to further weakening of global demand, insecurity and political instability, and renewed inflationary pressures. Vulnerabilities could further be amplified by intensifying climate change shocks both in physical and financial terms. Furthermore, Iraq's dependence on oil leaves it vulnerable to new economic risks amid the global transition towards a decarbonized world. A new government was confirmed into office in October 2022, marking a new opportunity to implement reforms towards economic diversification, tackling longstanding structural challenges and addressing climate challenges.
Iraq's overall security situation has notably improved after the defeat of ISIS, but significant challenges lie ahead. Iraq has witnessed major political and security transitions in 2017 when Prime Minister Al-Abadi announced in December the victory over ISIS after a war that lasted three years. The defeat of ISIS in Iraq left the government with the daunting tasks of rebuilding the country's infrastructure, reconstruction of liberated areas, establishing security and stability, and providing services for the return of the displaced persons. On May 12, 2018 Iraq voted in parliamentary elections that delivered a win for a political bloc led by Moqtada al-Sadr, while PM Al-Abadi's bloc, once seen as front runner, came in third. The ballots have been recounted after allegations of fraud and completed on August 8th without major change. On September 15th, Iraq's parliament elected lawmaker Mohammed al-Halbousi as speaker, marking a major step towards establishing a new government. On October 2nd, Iraq's parliament elected as president Barham Salih, who immediately named Adel Abdul Mahdi Prime Minister-designate, ending months of deadlock afterthe national election in May.
Iraq's economy is gradually emerging from the deep recession caused by the pandemic and the plunge in oil prices in 2020. Higher oil revenues pushed Iraq's overall fiscal and external balances into a surplus in 2021. The turnaround in oil markets has significantly improved Iraq's economic outlook in the medium term. Iraq's fiscal and socio-economic fragilities underscore the urgency of wide-ranging structural reforms by the new government. Iraq's existing food security challenges have intensified with the recent surge in global commodity prices. To plug the food supply gap, Iraq has become increasing reliant on imports for more than half of its food consumption, which has increased the country's exposure to global food price and supply shocks. Subsidies and direct transfers, including recently new measures announced by Government of Iraq (GoI), partly mitigate the impact of rising global prices in the short term. However, achieving food security calls for coordinated efforts to improve domestic production including through raising the efficiency of irrigation water, reducing and rehabilitating soil degradation, improving land management, and implementing climate change adaptation and mitigation measures including the adoption of climate-smart agriculture.
The Iraq Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the previous six months and presents findings from recent World Bank work on Iraq, placing them in a longer-term and global context and assessing the implications of these developments and other changes in policy regarding the outlook for Iraq. Its coverage ranges from the macroeconomy to business environment and private sector development. It is intended for a wide audience, including policy makers, business leaders, financial market participants, and the community of analysts and professionals engaged in Iraq.
The Iraq Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the previous six months and presents findings from recent World Bank work on Iraq, placing them in a longer-term and global context and assessing the implications of these developments and other changes in policy regarding the outlook for Iraq. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. Iraq is slowly emerging from the deep economic strains of the last three years, but progress in addressing the legacy of the war against ISIS and the accumulated development deficit from decades of conflict needs to be accelerated. Following the complete liberation from ISIS of all Iraq territory in December 2017, the Government of Iraq (GoI) is putting in place a comprehensive reconstruction package linking immediate stabilization to a long-term vision. The conflict with ISIS and widespread insecurity have created a major humanitarian and economic crisis. Iraq's growth outlook is expected to improve thanks to a more favorable security environment and gradual pick up of investment for reconstruction, but absent structural reforms, higher growth would be short-lived. The outlook is also subject to significant social and political risks. Lingering political tensions, weak administrative capacity and widespread corruption continue to pose a downside risk and could further limit the government's reform effort and its capacity to implement investment for reconstruction.
The Iraq Economic Monitor provides an update on key economic developments and policies over the previous six months and presents findings from recent World Bank work on Iraq, placing them in a longer-term and global context and assessing the implications of these developments and other changes in policy regarding the outlook for Iraq. Its coverage ranges from the macro-economy to financial markets to indicators of human welfare and development. Iraq is slowly emerging from the deep economic strains of the last three years, but progress in addressing the legacy of the war against ISIS and the accumulated development deficit from decades of conflict needs to be accelerated. Following the complete liberation from ISIS of all Iraq territory in December 2017, the Government of Iraq (GoI) is putting in place a comprehensive reconstruction package linking immediate stabilization to a long-term vision. The conflict with ISIS and widespread insecurity have created a major humanitarian and economic crisis. Iraq's growth outlook is expected to improve thanks to a more favorable security environment and gradual pick up of investment for reconstruction, but absent structural reforms, higher growth would be short-lived. The outlook is also subject to significant social and political risks. Lingering political tensions, weak administrative capacity and widespread corruption continue to pose a downside risk and could further limit the government's reform effort and its capacity to implement investment for reconstruction.
'A landmark work on perhaps the essential question of our time' - David Wallace-Wells, author of The Uninhabitable Earth In this ground-breaking book, environmental journalist, Peter Schwartzstein, takes the reader on the first on-the-ground exploration of climate change's contribution to global conflict. From the ravaged villages of Iraq, where ISIS has used drought as a recruiting tool and weapon of terror, to the pirate-ridden waters of Bangladesh - and drawing on more than a decade of reporting from dozens of countries - Schwartzstein writes about the unexpected ways in which climate change is feeding global unrest and conflict. Through the stories of the soldiers, farmers, spies and others affected around the world, he makes sense of a form of conflict that remains poorly understood, even as it devastates the lives of so many millions of people. While researching this book, Schwartzstein was chased by kidnappers, detained by police and told, in no uncertain terms, that he was no longer welcome in certain countries. Yet, as he recounts, these personal brushes with violence are simply a hint of the conflict simmering in our warming world. As Schwartztein's unparalleled reporting shows, there's nothing inevitable about climate violence. In fact, as he sets out, the same stresses that are pitching people against one another can even help bring them back together.