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We investigate investor's correlated attention as a determinant of excess stock market comovement. We propose a novel proxy, "co-attention", that measures the correlation in demand for market-wide information across stock markets approximated by the Google Search Volume Index (SVI). Our results reveal significant co-attention driven to some extent by correlated news and fundamentals. Most importantly, we find a positive association between co-attention and excess correlation. This effect is more pronounced in developed economies and during recessions. We fail to document significant effects of correlated news supply on stock markets, lending support to the idea that information demand governs investing decisions. Co-attention is not only induced through international investors but domestic investors as well. Our results provide evidence of attention-induced financial contagion in unrelated economies. International investors' co-attention appears to facilitate volatility transmission indirectly across markets.
Prior literature has documented that investor attention and constraints on that attention are associated with the pricing of stocks. We introduce the concept of attention comovement, which is the extent to which investor attention for a firm is explained by attention paid to the firm's industry and the market in general. We find that attention comovement is non-trivial for the average firm and is related to firm characteristics, such as size and visibility. We also find that the comovement of investor attention has market consequences, in that it is positively associated with excess stock return comovement. Finally, we show that a firm's earnings announcement contributes to the transfer of attention from one firm to its peer firms. Our results provide insights about the information flows underlying return comovement and aid in understanding the micro- and macro-nature of investor attention.
We hypothesize that when investors' attention to financial markets decreases, they rationally allocate relatively more attention to market-level information than to firm-specific information, leading to increases in stock return co-movements. Using large jackpot lotteries as exogenous shocks that attract investors' attention away from the stock market, we find supportive evidence that stock returns co-move more with the market on large jackpot days. This effect is stronger for stocks preferred by retail investors and is not driven by gambling sentiment. We also find that stock returns are less sensitive to earnings surprises and co-move more with industries on large jackpot days.
This paper analyzes the effect of an increase in market-wide uncertainty on information flow and asset price comovements. We use the daily realized volatility of the 30-year treasury bond futures to assess macroeconomic shocks that affect market-wide uncertainty. We use the ratio of a stock's idiosyncratic realized volatility with respect to the Samp;P 500 futures relative to its total realized volatility to capture the asset price comovement with the market. We find that market volatility and the comovement of individual stocks with the market increase contemporaneously with the arrival of market-wide macroeconomic shocks, but decrease significantly in the following five trading days. This pattern supports the hypothesis that investors shift their (limited) attention to processing market-level information following an increase in market-wide uncertainty and then subsequently divert their attention back to asset-specific information.
“Bali, Engle, and Murray have produced a highly accessible introduction to the techniques and evidence of modern empirical asset pricing. This book should be read and absorbed by every serious student of the field, academic and professional.” Eugene Fama, Robert R. McCormick Distinguished Service Professor of Finance, University of Chicago and 2013 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences “The empirical analysis of the cross-section of stock returns is a monumental achievement of half a century of finance research. Both the established facts and the methods used to discover them have subtle complexities that can mislead casual observers and novice researchers. Bali, Engle, and Murray’s clear and careful guide to these issues provides a firm foundation for future discoveries.” John Campbell, Morton L. and Carole S. Olshan Professor of Economics, Harvard University “Bali, Engle, and Murray provide clear and accessible descriptions of many of the most important empirical techniques and results in asset pricing.” Kenneth R. French, Roth Family Distinguished Professor of Finance, Tuck School of Business, Dartmouth College “This exciting new book presents a thorough review of what we know about the cross-section of stock returns. Given its comprehensive nature, systematic approach, and easy-to-understand language, the book is a valuable resource for any introductory PhD class in empirical asset pricing.” Lubos Pastor, Charles P. McQuaid Professor of Finance, University of Chicago Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is a comprehensive overview of the most important findings of empirical asset pricing research. The book begins with thorough expositions of the most prevalent econometric techniques with in-depth discussions of the implementation and interpretation of results illustrated through detailed examples. The second half of the book applies these techniques to demonstrate the most salient patterns observed in stock returns. The phenomena documented form the basis for a range of investment strategies as well as the foundations of contemporary empirical asset pricing research. Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns also includes: Discussions on the driving forces behind the patterns observed in the stock market An extensive set of results that serve as a reference for practitioners and academics alike Numerous references to both contemporary and foundational research articles Empirical Asset Pricing: The Cross Section of Stock Returns is an ideal textbook for graduate-level courses in asset pricing and portfolio management. The book is also an indispensable reference for researchers and practitioners in finance and economics. Turan G. Bali, PhD, is the Robert Parker Chair Professor of Finance in the McDonough School of Business at Georgetown University. The recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize, he is the coauthor of Mathematical Methods for Finance: Tools for Asset and Risk Management, also published by Wiley. Robert F. Engle, PhD, is the Michael Armellino Professor of Finance in the Stern School of Business at New York University. He is the 2003 Nobel Laureate in Economic Sciences, Director of the New York University Stern Volatility Institute, and co-founding President of the Society for Financial Econometrics. Scott Murray, PhD, is an Assistant Professor in the Department of Finance in the J. Mack Robinson College of Business at Georgia State University. He is the recipient of the 2014 Jack Treynor prize.
This timely volume addresses three important recent trends in the internationalization of United States equity markets: extensive market integration through foreign investment and links among stock prices around the world; increasing securitization as countries such as Japan come to rely more than ever before on markets in equities and bonds at the expense of banks; and the opening of national financial systems of newly industrializing countries to international financial flows and institutions, as governments remove capital controls and other barriers. Eight essays examine such issues as the current extent of international market integration, gains to U.S. investors through international diversification, home-country bias in investing, the role of time and location around the world in stock trading, and the behavior of country funds. Other, long-standing questions about equity markets are also addressed, including market efficiency and the accuracy of models of expected returns, with a particular focus on variances, covariances, and the price of risk according to the Capital Asset Pricing Model.
There is growing literature on search behavior and using search for prediction of market share or macroeconomic indicators. This research explores investors' stock search behaviors and investigates whether there are patterns in stock returns using those for return prediction. Stock search behaviors may reveal common interest among investors. In the first study, we use graph theory to find investment habitats (or search clusters) formed by users who search common set of stocks frequently. We study stock returns of stocks within the clusters and across the clusters to provide theoretical arguments that drive returns among search clusters. In the second study, we analyze return comovement and cross-predictability among economically related stocks searched frequently by investors. As search requires a considerable amount of cognitive resources of investors, they only search a few stocks and pay high attention to them. According to attention theory, the speed of information diffusion is associated with the level of attention. Quick information diffusion allows investors to receive relevant information immediately and take instantaneous trading action. This immediate action may lead to correlated return comovement. Slow information diffusion creates latency between the occurrence of an event and the action of investors. The slower response may lead to cross-predictability. Making use of the discrepancy in information diffusion, we implement a trading strategy to establish arbitrage opportunities among stocks due to difference in user attention. This research enriches the growing IS literature on information search by (1) identifying new investment habitats based on user search behaviors, (2) showing that varying degrees of co-attention and economic linkages may lead to different speed of information diffusion (3) developing a stock forecasting model based on real-time co-attention intensity of a group economically linked stocks and (4) embarking a new research area on search attention in stock market. The methods in handling complex search data may also contribute to big data research.
Are stocks' varying sensitivies to changing investor attention and sentiment priced? Employing internet search-based proxies for both, I find novel results that are consistent with theory. Stocks that co-vary negatively with increased investor attention to the stock market outperform in the following months in a behavior consistent with a risk premium. The pricing of co-variation with investor sentiment depends on aggregate mispricing (Baker-Wurgler index), behaving like a risk premium when mispricing is low and like an anomaly when mispricing is high. Sensitivity to both sentiment and attention is strongly related to idiosyncratic volatility and limits to arbitrage: High absolute attention/sentiment loadings are associated with higher volatility, smaller size and other limits to arbitrage. However, the priced attention and sentiment components are clearly distinct from the idiosyncratic risk puzzle and stay significant when controlling for relevant pricing factors and company characteristics. Investor attention is both very robust and highly powerful in pricing a broad variety of test assets. On the other hand, investor sentiment's effect on performance is strongly related to return reversal/momentum and does not add much information on its own.
We investigate how corporate stock returns respond to geopolitical risk in the case of South Korea, which has experienced large and unpredictable geopolitical swings that originate from North Korea. To do so, a monthly index of geopolitical risk from North Korea (the GPRNK index) is constructed using automated keyword searches in South Korean media. The GPRNK index, designed to capture both upside and downside risk, corroborates that geopolitical risk sharply increases with the occurrence of nuclear tests, missile launches, or military confrontations, and decreases significantly around the times of summit meetings or multilateral talks. Using firm-level data, we find that heightened geopolitical risk reduces stock returns, and that the reductions in stock returns are greater especially for large firms, firms with a higher share of domestic investors, and for firms with a higher ratio of fixed assets to total assets. These results suggest that international portfolio diversification and investment irreversibility are important channels through which geopolitical risk affects stock returns.