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While Brazil’s deep recession has been broad based, it has been marked by a particularly large fall in investment. Real investment fell by around 30 percent between the beginning of 2014 and the beginning of 2017. This paper finds that a variety of factors contributed to the investment decline, including a deterioration in Brazil’s medium-term growth prospects, rising real interest rates, falling terms of trade, rising uncertainty related to economic policy, rising levels of corporate leverage and lower cash flow. Some of the factors that have weighed on investment over recent years have begun to normalize providing some impetus for a recovery. However, still-high levels of corporate leverage and the prospect of continued uncertainty related to economic policy settings suggest a turnaround in investment is likely to be subdued.
While Brazil’s deep recession has been broad based, it has been marked by a particularly large fall in investment. Real investment fell by around 30 percent between the beginning of 2014 and the beginning of 2017. This paper finds that a variety of factors contributed to the investment decline, including a deterioration in Brazil’s medium-term growth prospects, rising real interest rates, falling terms of trade, rising uncertainty related to economic policy, rising levels of corporate leverage and lower cash flow. Some of the factors that have weighed on investment over recent years have begun to normalize providing some impetus for a recovery. However, still-high levels of corporate leverage and the prospect of continued uncertainty related to economic policy settings suggest a turnaround in investment is likely to be subdued.
While Brazil’s deep recession has been broad based, it has been marked by a particularly large fall in investment. Real investment fell by around 30 percent between the beginning of 2014 and the beginning of 2017. This paper finds that a variety of factors contributed to the investment decline, including a deterioration in Brazil’s medium-term growth prospects, rising real interest rates, falling terms of trade, rising uncertainty related to economic policy, rising levels of corporate leverage and lower cash flow. Some of the factors that have weighed on investment over recent years have begun to normalize providing some impetus for a recovery. However, still-high levels of corporate leverage and the prospect of continued uncertainty related to economic policy settings suggest a turnaround in investment is likely to be subdued.
Brazil is at crossroads, emerging slowly from a historic recession that was preceded by a huge economic boom. Reasons for the historic bust following a boom are manifold. Policy mistakes were an important contributory factor, and included the pursuit of countercyclical policies, introduced to deal with the effects of the global financial crisis, beyond the point where they were helpful. More fundamentally, it reflects longstanding structural weaknesses plaguing the economy, that also help explain Brazil’s uninspiring growth performance over the past four decades.
Brazil is at crossroads, emerging slowly from a historic recession that was preceded by a huge economic boom. Reasons for the historic bust following a boom are manifold. Policy mistakes were an important contributory factor, and included the pursuit of countercyclical policies, introduced to deal with the effects of the global financial crisis, beyond the point where they were helpful. More fundamentally, it reflects longstanding structural weaknesses plaguing the economy, that also help explain Brazil's uninspiring growth performance over the past four decades.
This book examines the performance of the Brazilian economy since the Great Financial Crisis of 2007/2008 with focus on both the productive and financial dimensions, along with distributional and social issues. The book will bring to light the causes of the fast recovery over 2009-2010 as well as of the slowdown after 2011. The chapters use econometric approaches and traditional Keynesian and post-Keynesian theories to empirically analyse the macro scenario. They explore monetary policy, fiscal policy, alongside discussion of investments and the exchange rate market, and an analysis of social policy and its impact on the economy.
An overview of savings, investment, and growth from the post-war period of the first oil shock; The impact of the debt crisis and external adjustment on savings, investment and growth; Analysis of the domestic adjustment and its impact on savings, investment and growth.
From Crisis to Recovery traces the causes, course and consequences of the “Great Recession”. It explains how a global build up of liquidity, coupled with poor regulation, created a financial crisis that quickly began to make itself felt in the real economy.
In the first decade of the twenty-first century, the biggest event of worldwide proportion was the 2008 global financial crisis, which was caused primarily by ineffective governance, failed surveillance systems, and implementation flaws. While fiscal and monetary policies succeeded in pulling many countries out of a financial freefall, most economies have performed beneath pre-recession levels as governments continued to struggle with their finances. Examining the financial crisis from the viewpoint of intangible assets provides a different perspective from traditional economic approaches. National Intellectual Capital (NIC), comprised mainly of human capital, market capital, process capital, renewal capital, and financial capital, is a valuable intangible asset and a key source of national competitive advantage in today’s knowledge economy. The authors—pioneers in the field—present extensive data and a rigorous conceptual framework to analyze the connections between the global financial crisis and NIC development. Covering the period from 2005 to 2010 across 48 countries, the authors establish a positive correlation between NIC and GDP per capita and consider the impact of NIC investment for short-term recovery and long-term risk control and strategy formulation. Each volume in a series of SpringerBriefs on NIC and the financial crisis provides in-depth coverage of the impact of the crisis, the aftermath, future prospects, and policy implications for a regional cluster. This volume focuses on the BRICKS—Brazil, Russia, India, China, Korea, and South Africa.
The 1990s saw lower- and middle-income countries throughout the world come under pressure to open their domestic markets to international trade and investment. Despite the progressive implementation of market-friendly policies, many emerging market countries experienced financial market volatility, exchange rate collapse, and slumps in output. These problems profoundly affected two of the world's largest middle-income industrialized countries —Brazil and South Korea. Despite superficial similarities, prior to the onset of crisis both countries had very different models of industrialization and had adopted contrasting approaches to trade and market reform.This collection analyzes the factors underlying the economic crises in South Korea and Brazil, pointing out areas of similarity and divergence. It also reviews the paths of recovery taken by both economies, examining the role of policy and variations in structural characteristics. Contributors include André Averburg (United Nations Development Programme/ Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social, Brazil), Fabio Giambiagi (Banco Nacional de Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social), Andrea Goldstein (OECD Development Centre), Louise Haagh (Department of Politics, University of York), Tat Yan Kong (School of Oriental and African Studies, University of London), José Ricardo Ramalho (Federal University of Rio de Janeiro, Brazil), Ben Ross Schneider (Center for International and Comparative Studies, Northwestern University), and Jaang-Sup Shin (Department of Economics, National University of Singapore).