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This study takes a megaregion approach to project future travel demand and choice of transport modes in the Texas Triangle, which is encompassed by four major metropolitan areas, Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin. The model was developed based on three behavioral characteristics of human travel. First, as income grows, demand for more and faster mobility increases. Second, on average, individuals allocate 1-1.5 hours per capita per day for travel. Third, people allocate 10-15% of per capita personal income for transportation related expenses. Measured by person-kilometers of travel (PKT), the total mobility demand in the Triangle region is projected to grow nearly four times from 480 billion in year 2000 to 1.8 trillion in year 2050. Per capita PKT is expected to increase from 32,700 to 61,000 for the same time period. The projections show that more than 70% of the year 2050 travel demand likely comes from high-speed travel at 600 km per hour. The study results call for serious consideration of investing in high-speed travel in the form of High Speed Rail (HSP) now in order to accommodate the future travel demand in the Triangle Region.
Congress created the National Surface Transportation Policy and Revenue Study Commission to examine "future surface transportation system needs, expected demographic and economic changes that will shape traffic demand, the future of the Interstate System, and the potential for expansion, upgrades, and other changes to the surface transportation system to meet the nation's needs." The Commission was directed to consult with representatives of State departments of transportation. This report is the first of six that AASHTO plans to provide to assist the Commission. It contains a comprehensive assessment of transportation needs today and in the future, and the demographic and economic changes that will shape that future.
About: In this approachable overview for investors, entrepreneurs, executives and practitioners alike, we unpack the questions which keep coming up in the mobility space. Use this guide as an approachable 101, a trusted reference for old hands and a rapid primer before investment committees. The Author: Over the course of 14 years at Shell, Doug Ayling learned a thing or two about the future of transportation and how discussions and decisions about it get framed at the corporate level within a global energy company. He was the longest-serving non-exec member of the Shell Ventures Mobility Investment Committee. He has since taken leadership roles in two cleantech startups.