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We assess the extent to which emerging economies have been able to attract global investors to their local currency bond markets. To do so, we first provide a sense of the playing field by examining the surge in the development of local currency bond markets over the past decade, as well as the historical returns characteristics faced by global investors. We then present a model in which investors care about barriers to investment as well as the mean, variance, and skewness of expected returns. Empirical tests suggest that the dominant factor is a new measure of investability; cross-border participation in local currency bonds is highest in countries in which investor-friendly institutions and policies have been established. Finally, we discuss the link between our findings and global financial stability. In particular, both increased bond market development and greater foreign participation are paths toward ameliorating imbalances associated with 1990s and more recent financial crises.
Local currency bond markets in ASEAN+3 play an important role in diversifying financial intermediary channels and mitigating the impacts of financial crises. They also have the potential to help mobilize developing Asia's significant savings to meet the region's enormous infrastructure investment needs. Drawing extensively on knowledge generated by the ASEAN+3 Bond Market Forum, the publication looks at the essential building blocks and the enabling environment for these markets, as well as the roles of government, relevant authorities, and market participants.
This paper estimates the impact of foreign participation in determining long-term local currency government bond yields and volatility in a group of emerging markets from 2000-2009. The results of a panel data analysis of 10 emerging markets show that greater foreign participation in the domestic government bond market tends to significantly reduce long-term government yields. Moreover, greater foreign participation does not necessarily result in increased volatility in bond yields in emerging markets and, in fact, could even dampen volatility in some instances.
This guidance note was prepared by International Monetary Fund (IMF) and World Bank Group staff under a project undertaken with the support of grants from the Financial Sector Reform and Strengthening Initiative, (FIRST).The aim of the project was to deliver a report that provides emerging market and developing economies with guidance and a roadmap in developing their local currency bond markets (LCBMs). This note will also inform technical assistance missions in advising authorities on the formulation of policies to deepen LCBMs.
In November 2011, the G-20 endorsed an action plan to support the development of local currency bond markets (LCBM). International institutions—the IMF, the World Bank, the EBRD, and the OECD—were asked to draw on their experience to develop a diagnostic framework (DF) to identify general preconditions, key components, and constraints for successful LCBM development. The objective is to provide a tool for analyzing the state of development and efficiency of local currency bond markets. The application of the DF is expected to be flexible, bearing in mind that the potential for LCBM development depends on economic size, financing needs, and stage of economic development.
Malaysia’s local currency debt market is one of the most liquid public debt markets in the world. In recent years, the growing share of nonresident holders of debt has been a source of concern for policymakers as a reason behind exchange rate volatility. The paper provides an overview of the recent developments in the conventional debt market. It builds an empirical two-stage model to estimate the main drivers of debt capital flows to Malaysia. Finally, it uses a GARCH model to test the hypothesis that nonresident flows are behind the observed exchange rate volatility. The results suggest that the public debt market in Malaysia responds adequately to both pull and push factors and find no firm evidence that nonresident flows cause volatility in the onshore foreign exchange market.
The Asian Development Bank (ADB) is working closely with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People's Republic of China (PRC), Japan, and the Republic of Korea---collectively known as ASEAN+3---to develop local currency bond markets and facilitate regional bond market integration under the Asian Bond Markets Initiative (ABMI). ABMI was launched in 2002 to strengthen the resilience of the region's financial system by developing local currency bond markets as an alternative source to foreign currency-denominated, short-term bank loans for long-term investment financing. The need for infrastructure investment among ASEAN+3 members is well documented, with estimates for needed investment through 2020 reaching as high as $550 billion. Local currency financing of infrastructure projects has the important advantage of avoiding the currency risk that can arise when a project generating revenues in the domestic currency has foreign currency-denominated debt service requirements. This study was undertaken under ABMI and funded by the Government of the PRC. It addresses two key questions: (i) Why is local currency bond financing not more widely used for infrastructure projects in ASEAN+3? and (ii) What can be done to promote infrastructure bond financing?
The Asian Bond Markets Initiative (ABMI) was launched in December 2002 by the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and the People’s Republic of China, Japan, and the Republic of Korea---collectively known as ASEAN+3 to strengthen financial stability and reduce the region’s vulnerability to the sudden reversal of capital flows. This paper also provides recommendations for addressing new sources of market volatility and other challenges within and outside the framework of the Asian Bond Markets Initiative.
Following the Asian financial crisis, the development of local currency bond markets in each of the APEC economies as well as regional bond markets has received the highest priority among financial market policy-makers. Bond markets are considered as an alternative vehicle for domestic savings mobilization and also as a critical means of mitigating the dual mismatch problems of currency and maturity. However, tangible achievements have yet to materialize. The appeal of Asian bonds as evidenced by cross-border investments is dismally insignificant. Given the limited level of market activities associated with foreign investment in Asian bonds and with the supply of local currency or foreign currency denominated bonds issued by foreign borrowers in Asia, this study is designed to identify the types of impediments to cross-border investment in Asian bonds and to propose policy recommendations.
An interesting disconnect has taken shape between local currency- and hard currency-denominated bonds in emerging markets with respect to their portfolio flows and prices since the start of the recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. Emerging market assets have recovered sharply from the COVID-19 sell-off in 2020, but the post-pandemic recovery in 2021 has been highly uneven. This note seeks to answer why. Yields of local currency-denominated bonds have risen faster and are approaching their pandemic highs, while hard currency bond yields are still near their post-pandemic lows. Portfolio flows to local currency debt have similarly lagged flows to hard currency bonds. This disconnect is closely linked to the external environment and fiscal and inflationary pressures. Its evolution remains a key consideration for policymakers and investors, since local markets are the main source of funding for emerging markets. This note draws from the methodology developed in earlier Global Financial Stability Reports on fundamentals-based asset valuation models for funding costs and forecasting models for capital flows (using the at-risk framework). The results are consistent across models, indicating that local currency assets are significantly more sensitive to domestic fundamentals while hard currency assets are dependent on the external risk sentiment to a greater extent. This suggests that the post-pandemic, stressed domestic fundamentals have weighed on local currency bonds, partially offsetting the boost from supportive global risk sentiment. The analysis also highlights the risks emerging markets face from an asynchronous recovery and weak domestic fundamentals.