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In View of the continuation of substantial movements in exchange rate relationships among major currencies, the recent increase in protectionist pressures, and the disappointing performance of world trade, renewed concern has been expressed about the possible adverse effects of exchange rate variability on trade. Against the background of this concern, the following decision was reached at the ministerial meeting of the General Agreement of Tariffs and Trade (GATT) in November 1982.
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This paper investigates the consequences of exchange rate volatility on the variability of export prices and quantities in the presence of market segmentation and pricing to market. Firms stabilize destination prices through systematic price discrimination, limiting the degree of exchange rate pass-through. Consequently, the variability of exchange rates is not fully translated into prices and quantities at the point of destination. Empirical estimates using aggregate price data for the G-7 industrial countries show incomplete pass-through in variances, with considerable variation among these countries. U.S. industry specific data also indicate incomplete pass-through in most cases, with considerable variation across industries.
Master's Thesis from the year 2018 in the subject Economics - International Economic Relations, grade: A, National University of Ireland, Maynooth (Department of Economics, Finance and Accounting), course: MSc Economic and Financial Risk Analysis, language: English, abstract: The purpose of this thesis is to examine the effect of real exchange rate volatility between the Canadian and US dollars on real exports from Canada to US. The study uses quarterly data from 1960-2017. The GARCH (1, 1) is used to model exchange rate volatility. After finding the variables are non-stationary with no co-integration, a VAR (Vector Auto regression) model is used to investigate the short-run relationship in the variables using Granger causality, impulse response functions and variance decomposition estimates. The results reveal that the effect of exchange rate volatility is of mixed signs with coefficients that are not statistically significant. The thesis is divided into 7 chapters; chapter 2 gives an overview of important literature and contributions by researchers over the years specifically covering the relationship between exchange rate volatility and trade, exchange rate regimes, exchange rate target zones and inflation targeting. Chapter 3 presents the model and data used, definitions of the variables and the predictions of the model. Chapter 4 gives a theoretical and econometric overview of the unit root and co-integration tests. Chapter 5 gives the data output of the empirical results and discussions of test results. This output is presented using graphs and tables. Chapter 6 is a presentation of the limitations of the model and possible areas of improvement. Lastly, chapter 7 concludes and gives policy recommendations moving forward. Exchange rates are a key player in any economy that is engaging in international trade. A stable monetary policy system and financial sector play a key role in ensuring the exchange rate stability of the currency of a country. Firms and traders rely on prevailing exchange rates to forecast amounts to produce, import and export; thus are very much affected by the exchange rate volatility. In addition to this, there is a currency conversion cost in international trade. Traders use a number of products in financial markets to hedge against currency fluctuations; these include among others forwards contracts. This is especially true for short-term hedging than long-term hedging.
Inconsistency in the relationship between exchange rate volatility and export growth reflects differences among countries in the currency in which trade is invoiced. Also, exchange rate volatility may affect the allocation of trade more than its level.
Fluctuations of commodity prices, most notably of oil, capture considerable attention and have been tied to important economic effects. This book advances our understanding of the consequences of these fluctuations, providing both general analysis and a particular focus on the countries of the Pacific Rim.
Volatile exchange rates and how to manage them are a contentious topic whenever economic policymakers gather in international meetings. This book examines the broad parameters of exchange rate policy in light of both high-powered theory and real-world experience. What are the costs and benefits of flexible versus fixed exchange rates? How much of a role should the exchange rate play in monetary policy? Why don't volatile exchange rates destabilize inflation and output? The principal finding of this book is that using monetary policy to fight exchange rate volatility, including through the adoption of a fixed exchange rate regime, leads to greater volatility of employment, output, and inflation. In other words, the "cure" for exchange rate volatility is worse than the disease. This finding is demonstrated in economic models, in historical case studies, and in statistical analysis of the data. The book devotes considerable attention to understanding the reasons why volatile exchange rates do not destabilize inflation and output. The book concludes that many countries would benefit from allowing greater flexibility of their exchange rates in order to target monetary policy at stabilization of their domestic economies. Few, if any, countries would benefit from a move in the opposite direction.