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The purpose of this research is to investigate the role of international trade in the process of regional convergence in Croatia. Previous empirical and theoretical studies usually argued that international competitiveness and export orientation promotes regional convergence and enables less developed regions to increase economic growth through enhanced productivity and efficiency. The main hypothesis tested is that international trade is less significant in explaining regional growth differentials in Croatia. The method used for the analysis is a panel data model which is based on conditional convergence hypothesis. The model is oriented to identification of factors which explain growth differentials of Croatian counties, including variables related to international competitiveness. The fundamental result obtained is empirical evidence for conclusion that international trade is not to be assumed as a key determinant of the regional convergence process in Croatia. Regional growth in Croatia is primarily determined by quality of human capital, investments in fixed assets and structural features of individual Croatian counties. The main conclusion on the basis of the results is that in the past period, regional growth was primarily determined by domestic demand of households and government. The highest growth was recorded in counties in which public funds were invested in infrastructural projects and counties specialised in production of services for personal consumption. However, the role of international trade in the regional economic growth can be more pronounced in the future as a result of limited domestic demand. Improved international competitiveness is a prerequisite for successful and sustainable regional development.
This paper examines the factors and constraints that affect recent and potential growth in Croatia, as well as policies that can influence it. On current productivity trends, it estimates Croatia's potential growth rate at 4-41⁄2 percent, a result reasonably robust to different methodologies. To sustain growth at a higher rate in line with the authorities' aspirations, the analysis highlights the critical need to improve the business environment through further measures to reduce the administrative burden, legal uncertainties, and corruption. It also emphasizes the importance of attracting more greenfield foreign direct investment, and reforms to reduce the role of the state in the economy through fiscal consolidation and faster privatization.
Application of the Newton's law of universal gravitation in explaining international trade has proved to be a successful empirical experiment. The use of relatively simple and easy-to-get data, such as the GDP and distance has made the gravity model particularly popular in explaining trade patterns of transitional economies that lack more sophisticated and longer-series data on foreign trade. One of the main characteristics of a small open economy is the importance of international trade which represents the key determinant in country's economic growth. For that reason, deeper analysis of this type of a problem is essential and foreign merchandise trade of Croatia suits as a perfect candidate for such analysis. Another significant advantage that stems out of the gravity theory is the possibility of evaluating regional patterns of trade.
This 2017 Article IV Consultation highlights that Croatia continued its third year of positive economic growth in 2017. Growth is expected to stay at similar levels in the near future but to decelerate over the medium term. Consumer prices increased at a moderate pace and wage growth was also moderate as unemployment remained high. The external current account is expected to record another strong surplus, underpinned by robust performance of exports and tourism and lower repatriation of profits as banks absorbed losses from Agrokor. The balance of risks has improved but vulnerabilities remain sizable as public and external debt levels are still high, and the full impact of the Agrokor restructuring is yet unknown.
This volume comprises papers presented at the 8th international conference “The Economies of the Balkan and Eastern European Countries in the Changing World” (EBEEC) held in Split, Croatia in 2016. The papers cover a wide range of current issues relevant for the whole of Eastern Europe, such as European integration, economic growth, labour markets, education and tourism. Written by experienced researchers in the field of economic challenges for Eastern Europe, the papers not only analyse recent problems, but also offer policies to resolve them. Furthermore, they offer insights into the theoretical and empirical foundations of the economic processes described. The proceedings of the conference appeals to all those interested in the further economic development of the Balkan and Eastern European countries.
This paper reviews economic developments in the Republic of Croatia during 1990–95. Real gross domestic product fell by a cumulative 30 percent over 1991–93. However, the economy began to recover in 1994 and real GDP grew by 0.8 percent. In the first quarter of 1995, real GDP was nearly 1 percent higher than the corresponding quarter in 1994. The primary impetus to growth in 1994 was from tourism, trade, transport, and communication. Tourism grew by 15 percent in 1994.
This paper on Selected Issues was prepared by a staff team of the International Monetary Fund as background documentation for the periodic consultation with the member country. It is based on the information available at the time it was completed on October 23, 2012. The views expressed in this document are those of the staff team and do not necessarily reflect the views of the government of the Republic of Croatia or the Executive Board of the IMF.
Between 2003 and 2008, Croatia's rapid growth was fueled by rising domestic consumption, growingdeficits, an increased dependence on international finance. Such growth is unlikely to resume in the nearfuture, imposing social and economic costs. In this context, exports are critically important for Croatia'sdevelopment and employment generation. However, the country's trade performance has been lacklustersince the financial crisis. Export openness is lower than in countries with similar income levels, and thecountry's per capita GDP has stagnated. Low export diversification, weak competitiveness, and reducedtechnological sophistication help to explain stagnant exports. The fundamental problem is the failure torenew and transform the manufacturing base, which is linked to low rates of firm entry and exit. Anothermarker of a sluggish economy is the inadequate level of business research and development expenditure by Croatian enterprises and the weak governance framework for research and innovation,which is impairing the impact of research and development spending.In this context, Smart Specialization in Croatia aims to provide insights to the country's smart specializationstrategy (RIS3) by looking at the main constraints and opportunities that it faces in its economic progressalong three interrelated dimensions: trade, firm productivity, and research and development. The report also includes four casestudies to illustrate potential RIS3 approaches to spur research and innovation specialization at theregional level. The report's ultimate objective is to help develop a strategy that fosters productivitygrowth, job creation, and a more diversified export structure.
In the past 25 years, exports have contributed strongly to growth and economic convergence in many small open economies. However, the Western Balkan (WB) region, consisting of small emerging market economies, has not fully availed itself of this driver of growth and convergence. A lack of openness, reliance on low value products, and weak competitiveness largely explain the insignificant role of trade and exports in the region’s economic performance. This paper focuses on how the countries in the WB could lift exports through stronger integration with global value chains (GVCs) and broadening of services exports. The experience of countries that joined the European Union in or after 2004 shows that participation in GVCs can help small economies accelerate export and income growth. WB countries are not well integrated into Europe’s vibrant GVCs. Trade within the region is also limited—it tends to be bilateral and not cluster-like. Our analysis shows that by improving infrastructure and labor skills and adopting trade policies that ensure investor protection and harmonize regulations and legal provisions, the region can greatly enhance its engagement with GVCs. Services exports are an increasingly important part of global trade, and they offer an untapped source of growth. The magnitude of services exports from the WB region compares favorably with that of peers in Europe, particularly in travel services where several of these countries have a revealed comparative advantage. But there is significant room for growth in tourism exports and an untapped potential in business and information technology services exports that these countries can materialize through policy efforts that increase openness and enhance connectivity and labor skills. Serbia offers a good example of how decisive efforts, including education policies to ensure a sustained supply of skilled labor, can help information technology services exports to take off.