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When marginal utility of consumption depends on leisure, investors will take this into account when allocating their wealth among different assets. This paper presents a multi-country general equilibrium model driven by productivity shocks, where labor-leisure and consumption are chosen endogenously. We use this framework to study the effect of leisure for optimal international diversification. We find that in the symmetric case the model's ability to help explain home-bias depends crucially on the level of substitutability between consumption and leisure.
Academic finance has had a remarkable impact on many financial services. Yet long-term investors have received curiously little guidance from academic financial economists. Mean-variance analysis, developed almost fifty years ago, has provided a basic paradigm for portfolio choice. This approach usefully emphasizes the ability of diversification to reduce risk, but it ignores several critically important factors. Most notably, the analysis is static; it assumes that investors care only about risks to wealth one period ahead. However, many investors—-both individuals and institutions such as charitable foundations or universities—-seek to finance a stream of consumption over a long lifetime. In addition, mean-variance analysis treats financial wealth in isolation from income. Long-term investors typically receive a stream of income and use it, along with financial wealth, to support their consumption. At the theoretical level, it is well understood that the solution to a long-term portfolio choice problem can be very different from the solution to a short-term problem. Long-term investors care about intertemporal shocks to investment opportunities and labor income as well as shocks to wealth itself, and they may use financial assets to hedge their intertemporal risks. This should be important in practice because there is a great deal of empirical evidence that investment opportunities—-both interest rates and risk premia on bonds and stocks—-vary through time. Yet this insight has had little influence on investment practice because it is hard to solve for optimal portfolios in intertemporal models. This book seeks to develop the intertemporal approach into an empirical paradigm that can compete with the standard mean-variance analysis. The book shows that long-term inflation-indexed bonds are the riskless asset for long-term investors, it explains the conditions under which stocks are safer assets for long-term than for short-term investors, and it shows how labor income influences portfolio choice. These results shed new light on the rules of thumb used by financial planners. The book explains recent advances in both analytical and numerical methods, and shows how they can be used to understand the portfolio choice problems of long-term investors.
In recent decades, the global economy has experienced a profound transformation due to trade integration and technological progress as well as important political changes. This transformation has been accompanied by significant positive effects at the global level, as increased trade integration has helped to raise incomes in advanced and developing economies, lifting millions out of poverty. At the same time, it has translated into changes experienced by individuals, companies and communities. While overall, better job opportunities are on the rise, workers who are forced to leave their existing jobs may find it difficult to share in these improvements. Policies aimed at facilitating adjustment can reduce the number of those left behind by trade or technology, while at the same time raising the net gains from these developments, improving overall efficiency and boosting incomes. Given the role of skills in productivity and in trade performance as well as in access to employment and wage distribution, a strong emphasis on skills development is vital for both firms and workers. This publication argues that in the current fast-changing context of globalization, where technology and trade relations evolve rapidly, the responsiveness of skills supply to demand plays a central role not only from an efficiency perspective, but also from a distributional perspective. Featuring results from the ILO's Skills for Trade and Economic Diversification (STED) programme, this report shows that appropriate skills development policies are key to helping firms participate in trade, and also to helping workers find good jobs.
This book provides valuable information and analysis to managers, policymakers, and investment counselors in the rapidly expanding field of pension funding. American workers, too, need answers and insights on how to invest their money and plan for their retirement. fifteen of America's leading financial analysts address such pressing questions as -What is the current financial status of the elderly, and how vulnerable are they to inflation? -What is the impact of inflation on the private pension system, and what are the effects of alternative indexing schemes? -What roles can the social security system play in the provision of retirement income? -What is the effect of the tax code and the Employee Retirement Income Security Act of 1974 (ERISA) on corporate pension policy? -How well funded are corporate pension plans, and is a firm's unfunded pension liability fully reflected in the market value of its common stock? Many of the conclusions these experts reach contradict and challenge popular views, thus providing fertile ground for innovation in pension planning.
This book presents the basic model of an agricultural household that underlies most of the case studies undertaken so far. The model assumes that households are price-takers and is therefore recursive. The decisions modeled include those affecting production and the demand for inputs and those affecting consumption and the supply of labor. Comparative results on selected elasticities are presented for a number of economies. The empirical significance of the approach is demonstrated in a comparison of models that treat production and consumption decisions separately and those in which the decisionmaking process is recursive. The book summarizes the implications of agricultural pricing policy for the welfare of farm households, marketed surplus, the demand for nonagricultural goods and services, the rural labor market, budget revenues, and foreign exchange earnings. In addition, it is shown that the basic model can be extended in order to explore the effects of government policy on crop composition, nutritional status, health, saving, and investment and to provide a more comprehensive analysis of the effects on budget revenues and foreign exchange earnings. Methodological topics, primarily the data requirements of the basic model and its extensions, along with aggregation, market interaction, uncertainty, and market imperfections are discussed. The most important methodological issues - the question of the recursive property of these models - is also discussed.
I investigate how the distribution of daily hours worked among prime-aged men has changed since the 1890s by occupational and industrial group and by the hourly wage. I find that although hours of work have fallen for all workers, the decline was disproportionately large among the lowest paid workers. In the past hours worked were very unevenly distributed with the lowest paid workers working the longest day whereas today it is the highest paid workers who work the longest day. I argue that much of the change in the relative length of the work day can be accounted for by changes in the number of daily hours workers are willing to supply. I show that the unequal distribution of work hours in the past equalized income and that in recent times the unequal distribution of hours worked magnifies income disparities, suggesting that wage or wealth data may underestimate long-run improvements in the welfare of the lowest paid workers.
Although international financial markets are highly integrated across the more well-developed countries, investors nevertheless hold portfolios that consist nearly exclusively of domestic assets. This violation of the predictions of standard theories of portfolio choice is known as the 'international diversification puzzle.' In this paper, we show that the presence of nontraded risk associated with variations in the return to human capital has dramatic implications for the optimal fraction of domestic assets in an individual's portfolio. Our analysis suggests that the returns to human capital are highly correlated with the returns to domestic financial assets. Hedging the risk associated with nontraded human capital involves a short position in national equities in an amount approximately 1.5 times the value of the national stock market. Thus optimal and value- weighted portfolios very likely involve a short position in domestic marketable assets.