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Understanding how producers make decisions to allot acreage among crops and how decisions about land use are affected by changes in prices and their volatility is fundamental for predicting the supply of staple crops and, hence, assessing the global food supply situation. This study makes estimations of monthly (i.e., seasonal) versus annual global acreage response models for the world's principal staple food crops: wheat, corn, soybeans, and rice. Primary emphasis is given to the magnitude and speed of the allocation process. Estimation of intra-annual acreage elasticity is crucial for expected food supply and for input demand, especially in the light of the recent short-term volatility in food prices. The econometric results indicate that global crop acreage responds to crop prices and price risks, input costs as well as a time trend. Depending on respective crop, short-run elasticities are about 0.05 to 0.40; price volatility tends to reduce acreage for some of the crops; comparison of the annual and the monthly acreage response elasticities suggests that acreage adjusts seasonally around the globe to new information and expectations. Given the seasonality of agriculture, time is of an essence for acreage response. The analysis indicates that acreage allocation is more sensitive to prices in the northern hemisphere spring than in winter and the response varies across months.
Understanding how producers make decisions to allot acreage among crops and how decisions about land use are affected by changes in prices and their volatility is fundamental for predicting the supply of staple crops and, hence, assessing the global food supply situation. The innovations of the present paper are estimates of monthly (i.e. seasonal) versus annual global acreage response models for four staple crops: wheat, soybeans, corn and rice. We focus on the impact of (expected) crop prices, oil and fertilizer prices and market risks as main determinants for farmers' decisions on how to allocate their land. Primary emphasis is given to the magnitude and speed of the allocation process. Estimation of intra-annual acreage elasticity is crucial for expected supply and for input demand, especially in the light of the recent short-term volatility in food prices. Such aggregate estimates are also valuable to verify whether involved country-specific estimations add up to patterns that are apparent in the aggregate international data. The econometric results indicate that global crop acreage responds to crop prices and price risks, input costs as well as a time trend. Depending on respective crop, short-run elasticities are about 0.05 to 0.25; price volatility tends to reduce acreage response of some crops; comparison of the annual and the monthly acreage response elasticities suggests that acreage adjusts seasonally around the globe to new information and expectations. Given the seasonality of agriculture, time is of the essence for acreage response: The analysis indicates that acreage allocation is more sensitive to prices in northern hemisphere spring than in winter and the response varies across months.
This book provides fresh insights into concepts, methods and new research findings on the causes of excessive food price volatility. It also discusses the implications for food security and policy responses to mitigate excessive volatility. The approaches applied by the contributors range from on-the-ground surveys, to panel econometrics and innovative high-frequency time series analysis as well as computational economics methods. It offers policy analysts and decision-makers guidance on dealing with extreme volatility.
This article estimates a worldwide aggregate supply response for key agricultural commodities -- wheat, rice, corn, and soybeans -- by employing a newly-developed multi-country, crop-calendar-specific, seasonally disaggregated model with price changes and price volatility applied accordingly. The findings reveal that, although higher output prices serve as an incentive to improve global crop supply as expected, output price volatility acts as a disincentive. Depending on the crop, the results show that own-price supply elasticities range from about 0.05 to 0.40. Output price volatility, however, has negative correlations with crop supply, implying that farmers shift land, other inputs, and yield-improving investments to crops with less volatile prices. Simulating the impact of price dynamics since 2006, we find that price risk has reduced the production response of wheat in particular -- and to a lesser extent, rice -- thus dampening price incentive effects. The simulation analysis shows that the increase in own-crop price volatility from 2006-2010 dampened yield by about 1-2% for the crops under consideration.
Handbook of Agricultural Economics, Volume Five highlights new advances in the field, with this new release exploring comprehensive chapters written by an international board of authors who discuss topics such as The Economics of Agricultural Innovation, Climate, food and agriculture, Agricultural Labor Markets: Immigration Policy, Minimum Wages, Etc., Risk Management in Agricultural Production, Animal Health and Livestock Disease, Behavioral and Experimental Economics to Inform Agri-Environmental Programs and Policies, Big Data, Machine Learning Methods for Agricultural and Applied Economists, Agricultural data collection to minimize measurement error and maximize coverage, Gender, agriculture and nutrition, Social Networks Analysis In Agricultural Economics, and more. Presents the latest release in the Handbook of Agricultural Economics Written and contributed by leaders in the field Covers topics such as The Economics of Agricultural Innovation, Climate, Food and Agriculture, Agricultural Labor Markets, and more
FOOD SECURITY IN THE DEVELOPING WORLD An introduction to the urgent global question of how to feed the hungry Global food production has never been more abundant, yet nearly a billion people worldwide suffer from malnutrition, virtually all of them in the developing world. Food security in these countries is a global humanitarian issue which becomes more urgent with every passing year. There is a vital need to understand the nature and causes of food scarcity in developing countries in order to see to it that our global bounty reaches the hungry people who need it. Food Security in the Developing World offers a comprehensive single-volume introduction to the subject. It focuses on three core issues—food availability, food accessibility, and food utilization—in order to produce a rounded picture of the causes and possible solutions for food scarcity. Thorough and accessible, it promises to help researchers and policymakers address this growing humanitarian crisis in a reasoned and targeted way. Food Security in the Developing World readers will also find: Future-oriented approach which continuously highlights paths forward Detailed discussion of topics including climate change and agricultural productivity, price volatility, diet and nutrition, and many more Examples and case studies drawn from across the developing world, including Sudan, Uganda, Nepal, and Afghanistan Food Security in the Developing World is ideal for food scientists and technologists, students in programs related to food science, development studies, geography, and related subjects, and policymakers working in food production and distribution.
The fertilizer industry in Pakistan, with US$3.74 billion per year in sales, now stands at a crossroads where, after an initial substantial contribution in boosting crop productivity, its future potential is being challenged. Fertilizer-responsive crop varieties, supplementary irrigation water, and a favorable policy environment in Pakistan have induced fast growth in fertilizer demand. On the supply side, the availability of gas at low prices along with a favorable investment environment resulted in the buildup of excessive manufacturing capacity. But recently, a shortage of gas and monopolistic behavior has led to underutilization and greater imports. Restrictive laws put fertilizer processing and marketing in a few hands, which has also affected its efficiency. Moreover, the yield response of fertilizer has tapered off and per hectare use is fast reaching its optimal level. The existing policy environment leads to higher costs, inefficient use, and a heavy burden on the government as it charges one-fourth of the market price for feedstock gas used in fertilizer manufacturing. In addition, the government imports urea and absorbs the difference in international and domestic prices.
A timely publication as world leaders deliberate the causes of the latest bouts of food price volatility and search for solutions that address the recent velocity of financial, economic, political, demographic, and climatic change. As a collection compiled from a diverse group of economists, analysts, traders, institutions and policy formulators - comprising multiple methodologies and viewpoints - the book exposes the impact of volatility on global food security, with particular focus on the world's most vulnerable.
The recent escalation of world food prices – particularly for cereals - prompted mass public indignation and demonstrations in many countries, from the price of tortilla flour in Mexico to that of rice in the Philippines and pasta in Italy. The crisis has important implications for future government trade and food security policies, as countries re-evaluate their reliance on potentially more volatile world markets to augment domestic supplies of staple foods. This book examines how government policies caused and responded to soaring world prices in the particular case of rice, which is the world's most important source of calories for the poor. Comparable case studies of policy reactions in different countries, principally across Asia, but also including the USA, provide the understanding necessary to evaluate the impact of trade policy on the food security of poor farmers and consumers. They also provide important insights into the concerns of developing countries that are relevant for future international trade negotiations in key agricultural commodities. As a result, more appropriate policies can be put in place to ensure more stable food supplies in the future. Published with the Food and Agriculture (FAO) Organization of the United Nations
The report aims to provide a conceptual framework to address food security under conditions of water scarcity in agriculture. It has been prepared by a team of FAO staff and consultants in the framework of the project "Coping with water scarcity - the role of agriculture", and has been discussed at an Expert Consultation meeting organized in FAO, Rome, during the period 14-16 December 2009 on the same subject. It was subsequently edited and revised, taking account of discussions in the Expert Consultation and materials presented to the meeting. The purpose of the Expert Consultation was to assist FAO to better design its water scarcity programme. In particular, the experts were requested to provide recommendations on the range of technical and policy options and associated principles that FAO should promote as part of an agricultural response to water scarcity in member countries. The document offers views on the conceptual framework on which FAO's water scarcity programme should be based, proposes a set of definitions associated with the concept of water scarcity, and indicates the main principles on which FAO should base its action in support to its member countries. At the meeting, experts were requested to review the draft document and provide feedback and recommendations for its finalization. Issues that were addressed in discussions included: 3⁄4 Water scarcity: agreement on key definitions. 3⁄4 The conceptualisation of water scarcity in ways that are meaningful for policy development and decision-making. 3⁄4 The quantification of water scarcity. . 3⁄4 Policy and technical response options available to ensure food security in conditions of water scarcity. . 3⁄4 Criteria and principles that should be used to establish priorities for action in response to water scarcity in agriculture and ensure effective and efficient water scarcity coping strategies.