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The sustained rise in German unemployment since 1973 poses a problem of critical importance for the world economy. Fewer than two decades ago, Germany boasted an average unemployment rate of under 1% and imported labor to relieve chronic labor shortages. By the mid-1980s, unemployment had risen to over 8 percent of the labor force. This paper investigates some of the reasons for the secular rise in unemployment. We find that while deficient aggregate demand can probably explain some of the current joblessness, the secular rise in unemployment has consisted primarily of an increase in the equilibrium rate of unemployment. We also find little evidence that this increase is due to changes in frictional unemployment. Rather, after reviewing institutional details of the labor market in Germany, we identify various impediments to the kinds of structural adjustments that have operated to maintain a fairly constant equilibrium rate of unemployment in the United States.
This chapter reviews recent economic developments and economic prospects in which the emergence of the principal imbalances is traced, and their persistent character highlighted in the Federal Republic of Germany. On macroeconomic policies, while one might quibble about the rate of expansion of the money supply or the timing of tax reduction and reform, the paper does not find major errors in the formulation or implementation of policies that would account for the principal economic imbalances. The need to reduce rules and regulations, which act to limit the flexibility and dynamism of the German economy, has been reinforced by the objective of fully liberalizing trade in services within the European Community by 1992. The banking industry is exempt from the provisions of the antitrust law, which prohibits restraints on competition, price collusion, and other collusive agreements. Among economists, there is a broad agreement that structural reforms in Germany would greatly improve economic performance and contribute to external adjustment.
The empirical analysis indicates that in the Federal Republic the unemployed primarily influence the relationship between the level of real wages and productivity, rather than the growth of wages. This result suggests a distinction between an equilibrium natural rate of unemployment, which is estimated to have been 3-4 percent in the 1980s, and a quasi-equilibrium unemployment rate closer to actual rates of 7-8 percent. Corresponding to these two concepts of equilibrium unemployment, estimates are presented of alternative concepts of potential output that differ according to whether labor input is consistent with the quasi-equilibrium rate of unemployment or with the natural rate of unemployment.
The financial and economic crisis in Europe is not over, and the radically opposing strategies on how to proceed has only increased the complexity of problems in the region, revealing the shortcomings of the EU’s architecture. The European Union, perhaps for the first time in its history of more than seventy years, is being perceived as a threat to the financial and monetary stability of the world. A Global Perspective on the European Economic Crisis explores the connection between internal EU actions and institutions and the external factors that influence the ongoing response to the European crisis. With a unique collection of international and interdisciplinary essays, this book considers the complex macroeconomic and challenging political landscape of Europe, looking at how and why the European Union is untenable in its current state. The chapters outline what should be done to make the common currency area more resilient, and explain why external events are particularly problematic for the EU, ultimately offering suggestions for what Europeans should do in order to avoid harmful internal consequences. This volume confronts the causes of the crisis’ persistence, its economic and political consequences, and the impact of more recent events and policy decisions. It will be of interest to researchers and policy-makers keen to understand the EU relations and the influence of international organizations in the European economic crisis.
The Fading Miracle provides a lucid account of economic policy in West Germany from the late 1940s up to the present. First published in hardback in 1992, this paperback edition has been updated to include events since then. The authors describe and evaluate the major policy controversies and decisions, and place particular emphasis on the characteristically German institutions of policy counselling and their role in policy formation. The book will be of interest to students and teachers of economics, and to all those with an interest in the development of the greatest economic power in Europe.
This paper discusses comparison of economic and social indicators in the year 1988 between Federal Republic of Germany (FRG) and German Democratic Republic (GDR). The budgetary costs of unification will be substantially larger than initially envisaged. Moreover, if one adds to the budget the increases in government debt related to equalization paper, a portion of the old enterprise debt on the books of the banks. The Trust Fund has been assigned a task or enormous scope and complexity: the privatization, restructuring, and in some cases, liquidation of 8000 enterprises with 4 million employees. Even taking care of the short-run financial problems of these enterprises has proved daunting; the more fundamental task will be near impossible to achieve with any rapidity. It is clearly essential to the success of economic integration that capital allow east rather than labor flowing west and that income growth and new opportunities arc enough to meet reasonable aspirations on the pan of the residents of East Germany.
This volume is devoted to the hysteresis phenomenon in economic relationships. This topic has received renewed attention in economics especially in the late eigh ties. Since the issue is not settled there is still a growing literature on it. The aim of this volume is to summarize the findings, present new results, and to draw attention to further research. All papers are written for this volume and are not published elsewhere. I am very grateful to all authors and referees without whose prompt and generous help this volume would not appear in the present form. A short summary of each paper is given in section 5 of the overview paper. Konstanz, January 1990 Wolfgang Franz University of Konstanz Contents Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview W. Franz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Hysteresis in Trade R. Baldwin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Some Evidence on the Membership Hysteresis Hypothesis in Europe M. C. Burda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Insider-Outsider Influences on Industry Wages D. T. Coe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment An Unobserved Components Approach A. Jaeger and M. Parkinson. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Unemployment and Deterioration of Human Capital J. Moller . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Hysteresis, Nairn and Long Term Unemployment in Austria P. Neudorfer, K. Pichelmann and M. Wagner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview l By W. Franz Can the socialist man be created so as not to show any hysteresis trace of his bourgois or peasant past? N. Georgescu-Roegen (l971. p. 126) 1 Introduction The hysteresis phenomenon has received renewed attention in economic science.
Major industrial countries have shown strikingly different performances in recent years. Between 1982 and 1987 • employment in the United States and Japan increased by 13 and 6 per cent respectively but only by 2 per cent in Western Europe. While unemployment rates in America and Japan are presently almost as low as they were in the late 1970s when the cyclical position was about the same • they are double as high as they were then in Western Europe. Correspondingly, GNP growth in Western Europe was low by past and international standards.
During the past two decades, wages of skilled workers in the United States rose while those of unskilled workers fell; less-educated young men in particular have suffered unprecedented losses in real earnings. These twelve original essays explore whether this trend is unique to the United States or is part of a general growth in inequality in advanced countries. Focusing on labor market institutions and the supply and demand forces that affect wages, the papers compare patterns of earnings inequality and pay differentials in the United States, Australia, Korea, Japan, Western Europe, and the changing economies of Eastern Europe. Cross-country studies examine issues such as managerial compensation, gender differences in earnings, and the relationship of pay to regional unemployment. From this rich store of data, the contributors attribute changes in relative wages and unemployment among countries both to differences in labor market institutions and training and education systems, and to long-term shifts in supply and demand for skilled workers. These shifts are driven in part by skill-biased technological change and the growing internationalization of advanced industrial economies.