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This paper reviews the experience of 1990, the first year of Poland’s program of stabilization and reform. The background is described, including previous reform efforts and the crisis of the late 1980s. Then the various elements of the program are discussed, including fiscal adjustment, wage controls, the possibility of an initial liquidity overhang, the exchange rate anchor, and structural reforms. The initial results of the program are assessed, and alternative explanations of the decline in output are considered.
The Solidarity-led government which came into power in Poland in Autumn 1989 faced two enormous tasks. First, to stabilize an economy prone to hyperflation. Second, to replace a crumbling command system in favour of a market mechanism, in a country whose market institutions had been destroyed under forty years of communist rule. This book recounts the events of this period and the course taken by the new government, and analyzes the significance of this for the transition process in Poland and elsewhere.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
This is the first comprehensive study in the context of EMDEs that covers, in one consistent framework, the evolution and global and domestic drivers of inflation, the role of expectations, exchange rate pass-through and policy implications. In addition, the report analyzes inflation and monetary policy related challenges in LICs. The report documents three major findings: In First, EMDE disinflation over the past four decades was to a significant degree a result of favorable external developments, pointing to the risk of rising EMDE inflation if global inflation were to increase. In particular, the decline in EMDE inflation has been supported by broad-based global disinflation amid rapid international trade and financial integration and the disruption caused by the global financial crisis. While domestic factors continue to be the main drivers of short-term movements in EMDE inflation, the role of global factors has risen by one-half between the 1970s and the 2000s. On average, global shocks, especially oil price swings and global demand shocks have accounted for more than one-quarter of domestic inflation variatio--and more in countries with stronger global linkages and greater reliance on commodity imports. In LICs, global food and energy price shocks accounted for another 12 percent of core inflation variatio--half more than in advanced economies and one-fifth more than in non-LIC EMDEs. Second, inflation expectations continue to be less well-anchored in EMDEs than in advanced economies, although a move to inflation targeting and better fiscal frameworks has helped strengthen monetary policy credibility. Lower monetary policy credibility and exchange rate flexibility have also been associated with higher pass-through of exchange rate shocks into domestic inflation in the event of global shocks, which have accounted for half of EMDE exchange rate variation. Third, in part because of poorly anchored inflation expectations, the transmission of global commodity price shocks to domestic LIC inflation (combined with unintended consequences of other government policies) can have material implications for poverty: the global food price spikes in 2010-11 tipped roughly 8 million people into poverty.
This book authoritatively considers the phenomenon of the severe economic crises of the 1970s and 1980s, as exemplified by the combination of high inflation and negative growth in Israel and Latin America. The author analyses the common characteristics of such processes and their possible cures–with a detailed first-hand account of Israeli stabilization policy, and a comparative policy-oriented analysis of Latin American reforms. Professor Bruno also calls on his experience to give a preliminary evaluation of recent stabilizations and reform attempts in several East European economies. The discussion of the theoretical underpinnings of `shock' treatments provides a good example for the blending of a number of disciplines: lessons of economic history; open economy monetary and macro theory; game-theoretic applications to the theory of economic policy design (concepts such as dynamic inconsistency, government reputation, and credibility); and the rationalization of incomes policy. The Clarendon Lectures in Economics were established in 1987. They consist of coherent sets of three or four lectures given by distinguished economists which are accessible to advanced undergraduates and also of interest to academics. Subjects vary from high theory and applications of theory to policy-oriented topics. Lecturers include Professors J.-M. Grandmont, David Kreps, Kenneth Arrow, Angus Deaton, Robert Schiller, and Oliver Hart.
Latin American neo-structuralism is a cutting-edge, regionally focused economic theory with broad implications for macroeconomics and development economics. Roberto Frenkel has spent five decades developing the theory's core arguments and expanding their application throughout the discipline, revolutionizing our understanding of high inflation and hyperinflation, disinflation programs, and the behavior of foreign exchange markets as well as financial and currency crises in emerging economies. The essays in this collection assess Latin American neo-structuralism's theoretical contributions and viability as the world's economies evolve. The authors discuss Frenkel's work in relation to pricing decisions, inflation and stabilization policy, development and income distribution in Latin America, and macroeconomic policy for economic growth. An entire section focuses on finance and crisis, and the volume concludes with a neo-structuralist analysis of general aspects of economic development. For those seeking a comprehensive introduction to contemporary Latin American economic thought, this collection not only explicates the intricate work of one of its greatest practitioners but also demonstrates its impact on the growth of economics.