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The Maastricht Treaty makes the convergence of inflation rates one of the preconditions of European Monetary Union (EMU). The purpose of this study is to shed light on the mechanism underlying the processes that lead to convergence or divergence in national inflation rates. It examinesinflation and wage bahaviour in the European Monetary System (EMS), their determinants, and their implications for the credibility and sustainability of the system's exchange rate mechanism (ERM). Although the focus is on the EMS period, eleven of the twelve studies also review the background of the1970s. The contributors examine issues of monetary control, stability of national and ERM-wide money-demand function, the monetary policy of Germany - the pivotal country in the EMS - and its influence on the stability of the system after the fall of the Berlin Wall. As well as explaining how theEMS worked, the book also offers reasons for its breakdown in 1992-3 under the blow of exogenous shocks and growing policy conflict between member countries.The study identifies several causes of inflation and persistent inflation differentials in the EMS. Among the 'real' causes, particular attention is devoted to sectoral productivity shocks. In some countries, import price shocks, exogenous wage pushes, taxes, and government expenditure are bound tobe important factors. Since theses kinds of shock hit the various economies of the region differently, inflation differntials can persist for several years. The different policies of governments and central banks, and the fact the monetary policies have not always been consistent with the long-runmaintenance of fixed exchange rates, have also played a considerable role in explaining the persistance of inflation differentials.
Wages have been rising faster than productivity in many European countries for the past few years, yet signs of underlying consumer price pressures remain limited. To shed light on this puzzle, this paper examines the historical link between wage growth and inflation in Europe and factors that influence the strength of the passthrough from labor costs to prices. Historically, wage growth has led to higher inflation, but the impact has weakened since 2009. Empirical analysis suggests that the passthrough from wage growth to inflation is significantly lower in periods of subdued inflation and inflation expectations, greater competitive pressures, and robust corporate profitability. Thus the recent pickup in wage growth is likely to have a more muted impact on inflation than in the past.
This volume seeks to go beyond the microeconomic view of wages as a cost having negative consequences on a given firm, to consider the positive macroeconomic dynamics associated with wages as a major component of aggregate demand.
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
We explore two issues triggered by the crisis. First, in most advanced countries, output remains far below the pre-recession trend, suggesting hysteresis. Second, while inflation has decreased, it has decreased less than anticipated, suggesting a breakdown of the relation between inflation and activity. To examine the first, we look at 122 recessions over the past 50 years in 23 countries. We find that a high proportion of them have been followed by lower output or even lower growth. To examine the second, we estimate a Phillips curve relation over the past 50 years for 20 countries. We find that the effect of unemployment on inflation, for given expected inflation, decreased until the early 1990s, but has remained roughly stable since then. We draw implications of our findings for monetary policy.
Focusing upon the rich interplay between ongoing institutional and technological changes, the dynamics of national industrial systems and the modifications in policy instruments of the new economic framework of the common market and the single currency, European Economies in Transition addresses key issues for growth and convergence. A set of methodologies highlighting the structural aspects and discontinuities in such dynamics reveals new features of transition processes experienced by some of the most advanced Western economies.
In this book, the author presents fresh perspectives on the theories surrounding European Monetary Union. Urging the reader to examine conventional ideas from new viewpoints, he discusses the events which led to EMU, analyses the current situation, and projects possible futures. Essential reading for academics and professionals concerned with the background and implications of EMU, this book will also be of considerable interest to scholars in the fields of European studies, monetary economics, international economics and economic history.
The creation of the European Economic and Monetary Union (EMU) and the introduction of the euro is a historical event for the EU countries. The debates on the desirability of the EMU provoked a vast economic literature dealing with the theory of the optimum currency area, costs and benefits of the EMU, symmetric vs. asymmetric shocks, alternative mechanisms of adjustment in a monetary union and so forth. Until recently, for the Central European candidate countries for a full membership in the EU, these issues seemed to be too far away, as they concentrated on devising their own monetary and exchange rate systems suitable for their transition period. The challenges of the EMU for the Central European countries were practically not dealt with in both Western and Eastern economic literature. The present book aims to fill this gap, by focusing on the most direct issue of relevance for the Central European countries with respect to the EMU - why, how and when these countries are expected to join the EMU. The papers included in this volume study the relationship between the EU accession process of the Central European candidate countries and their involvement in the process of European monetary integration.
This unique volume offers a definitive new history of European economies at war from 1914 to 1918. It studies how European economies mobilised for war, how existing economic institutions stood up under the strain, how economic development influenced outcomes and how wartime experience influenced post-war economic growth. Leading international experts provide the first systematic comparison of economies at war between 1914 and 1918 based on the best available data for Britain, Germany, France, Russia, the USA, Italy, Turkey, Austria-Hungary and the Netherlands. The editors' overview draws some stark lessons about the role of economic development, the importance of markets and the damage done by nationalism and protectionism. A companion volume to the acclaimed The Economics of World War II, this is a major contribution to our understanding of total war.
Based on research commissioned by the European Parliament, this volume allows the economists contributing to offer their own explanations for the collapse of the European Monetary System, with the use of economic models.