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In light of the persistence of moderate inflation in many transition economies, this paper analyzes whether inflation resulted from insufficiently tight financial policies and wage pressures or from the protracted adjustment of relative prices. Using a new database for 21 countries, the effect of relative price variability on inflation is estimated within a framework controlling for nominal and real shocks. Money and wage growth were the most important determinants of inflation; relative price variability had a sizable effect at high inflation during initial liberalization and a small effect at moderate inflation. Cost recovery may contribute to variability, particularly in the advanced stages of the transition.
During the early 1980s, Israel's inflation rate rose to almost 500% per year—one of the highest inflation rates in the developed world. In 1985, the Israeli government implemented a program that immediately reduced inflation to 15%-20%, where it remained for the rest of the decade. How did the economy deal with these major changes so rapidly and successfully? In these eighteen articles, Leonardo Leiderman discusses why the Israeli plan worked and considers how other countries might benefit from similar policies. Even though standard economic models predict that output will drop and unemployment will rise during disinflation, Israel saw a boom in private consumption and large increases in real wages that lasted for about three years. To understand how the effects of Israeli disinflation policies defied typical expectations, Leiderman investigates how monetary fiscal policy determined Israel's runaway inflation and how the country brought its economy abruptly under control. He finds that rates of inflation and consumption depend on the public's expectations about future fiscal adjustments and that foreign trade shocks do not inevitably lead to a long-term rise in the inflation rate. His illumination of international trade and domestic policies, past and present, will interest academic economists and policymakers alike.
Professor Cukierman presents a summary view of the recent imperfect information approach to inflation and its real effects, focusing in particular on two types of informational limitations. The first involves situations in which individuals have asymmetric information about the current general price level and consequently confuse relative and aggregate changes in prices. The second considers models in which individuals cannot distinguish permanent from transitory changes in the economic environment. The book assumes no mathematical training beyond standard calculus and elementary statistics.
Many countries, including several transition economies, have in the last few years recorded a sharp decline in inflation, but have been unable to bring inflation down to lower single digits or to achieve price stability. In these countries, inflation has stabilized at moderate levels, with further progress becoming seemingly more difficult. What are the problems created by moderate inflation? What is the appropriate speed of disinflation? These and other issues related to disinflation in transition economies are taken up in this book, edited by Carlo Cottarelli and Gyorgy Szapáry.
Since 2004, economic reforms in Egypt have led to robust expansion, a healthy external position, and enhanced investor confidence. But despite these positive macroeconomic developments, inflation has been steadily rising. Does fiscal policy threaten price stability? Does wage growth in the Egyptian economy lead price inflation, or is it the reverse? In this volume, these and other questions are examined by contributors who participated in a conference held in Cairo in late 2007. Here is a coherent and comprehensive analysis of the factors driving prices in Egypt, in an attempt to find a satisfactory balance between prices and economic growth. While Egypt is the focus of the analysis, the papers draw upon the relevant literature, and international experience, the findings can be applied to other middle-income economies. This timely study helps to explain the complex issues facing economists and policymakers, with proposals for reform. Contributors: Hala Abou-Ali, Hala Fares, Omneia A. Helmy, Alaa Ibrahim, Hanaa Kheir-El-Din, Rania Al-Mashat, Diaa Noureldin, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, and Sherine Al-Shawarby.
Since 2004, economic reforms in Egypt have led to robust expansion, a healthy external position, and enhanced investor confidence. But despite these positive macroeconomic developments, inflation has been steadily rising. Does fiscal policy threaten price stability? Does wage growth in the Egyptian economy lead price inflation, or is it the reverse? In this volume, these and other questions are examined by contributors who participated in a conference held in Cairo in late 2007. Here is a coherent and comprehensive analysis of the factors driving prices in Egypt, in an attempt to find a satisfactory balance between prices and economic growth. While Egypt is the focus of the analysis, the papers draw upon the relevant literature, and international experience, the findings can be applied to other middle-income economies. This timely study helps to explain the complex issues facing economists and policymakers, with proposals for reform. Contributors: Hala Abou-Ali, Hala Fares, Omneia A. Helmy, Alaa Ibrahim, Hanaa Kheir-El-Din, Rania Al-Mashat, Diaa Noureldin, Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel, and Sherine Al-Shawarby.