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This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles.
This title was first published in 2002. Since the 1990s Turkey has experienced a number of disasters, both physical and economic. The result has been a decrease in economic performance compared to other European states. This study addresses the country's ongoing economic struggles.
During the early 1980s, Israel's inflation rate rose to almost 500% per year—one of the highest inflation rates in the developed world. In 1985, the Israeli government implemented a program that immediately reduced inflation to 15%-20%, where it remained for the rest of the decade. How did the economy deal with these major changes so rapidly and successfully? In these eighteen articles, Leonardo Leiderman discusses why the Israeli plan worked and considers how other countries might benefit from similar policies. Even though standard economic models predict that output will drop and unemployment will rise during disinflation, Israel saw a boom in private consumption and large increases in real wages that lasted for about three years. To understand how the effects of Israeli disinflation policies defied typical expectations, Leiderman investigates how monetary fiscal policy determined Israel's runaway inflation and how the country brought its economy abruptly under control. He finds that rates of inflation and consumption depend on the public's expectations about future fiscal adjustments and that foreign trade shocks do not inevitably lead to a long-term rise in the inflation rate. His illumination of international trade and domestic policies, past and present, will interest academic economists and policymakers alike.
The most dramatic, revealing and little-known story in Turkey's history - which illuminates the nation 'Through the spellbinding career of a single, ill-fated leader, Jeremy Seal illuminates a bitterly divided country' Colin Thubron 'Read this book if you're interested in Turkey. Read it if you're interested in power, hubris and redemption. Read it' Christopher de Bellaigue, author of The Islamic Enlightenment In the spring of 2016 travel writer Jeremy Seal went to Turkey to investigate perhaps the most dramatic, revealing and little-known episode in the country's history - the 'original' coup of 1960, which deposed the traditionalist Prime Minister Adnan Menderes. The story of Menderes - to his adoring supporters the country's founding democrat; to his sworn enemies its most infamous traitor - goes to the heart of the feud that continues to rage between the Western and secular ambitions of a minority elite and the religious and conservative instincts of the small-town majority. A Coup in Turkey is a thrilling account of the events leading up to the coup and the trials and executions that followed, a story of political subterfuge and score-settling, courtroom drama, state execution, authoritarian intolerance and ideological division. Seal travels through President Erdogan's Turkey, tracking down eye-witness accounts from survivors of the Menderes era in Istanbul, the historic metropolis, and the new capital at Ankara. As he expertly guides us through this extraordinary story, so the compelling parallels between past and present become strikingly clear, and he illuminates this troubled nation with a deep sympathy and love for the people and places he writes about. By focussing on one key event - one which many Turks regard with shame - this evocative, gripping portrait of Turkey recentres our understanding of the past and makes sense of one of Europe's most bewildering yet intriguing neighbours. 'A wonderful writer' Robert Macfarlane
Inflation is regarded by the many as a menace that damages business and can only make life worse for households. Keeping it low depends critically on ensuring that firms and workers expect it to be low. So expectations of inflation are a key influence on national economic welfare. This collection pulls together a galaxy of world experts (including Roy Batchelor, Richard Curtin and Staffan Linden) on inflation expectations to debate different aspects of the issues involved. The main focus of the volume is on likely inflation developments. A number of factors have led practitioners and academic observers of monetary policy to place increasing emphasis recently on inflation expectations. One is the spread of inflation targeting, invented in New Zealand over 15 years ago, but now encompassing many important economies including Brazil, Canada, Israel and Great Britain. Even more significantly, the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan and the United States Federal Bank are the leading members of another group of monetary institutions all considering or implementing moves in the same direction. A second is the large reduction in actual inflation that has been observed in most countries over the past decade or so. These considerations underscore the critical – and largely underrecognized - importance of inflation expectations. They emphasize the importance of the issues, and the great need for a volume that offers a clear, systematic treatment of them. This book, under the steely editorship of Peter Sinclair, should prove very important for policy makers and monetary economists alike.
Abstract: We quantify the macroeconomic effects of COVID-19 for a small open economy by calibrating a SIR-multi-sector-macro model to Turkey. Sectoral supply shocks are based on the proximity requirements in each sector and the ability to work from home. Physical proximity determines the supply shock through its effect on infection rates. Sectoral demand shocks incorporate domestic and foreign demand, both of which adjust with infection rates. We calibrate demand shocks during COVID-19 using real-time credit card purchase data. Our results show that the optimal policy, which yields the lowest economic cost and saves the maximum number of lives, can be achieved under a full lockdown of 39 days. Economic costs are much larger for an open economy as the shocks are amplified through the international production network. A decline in foreign demand leads to losses in domestic sectors through international input-output linkages, accounting for a third of the total output loss. In addition, the reduction in capital flows deprives the network from its trade financing needs, where sectors with larger external finance needs experience larger losses. The policy options are limited given sparse fiscal resources to fight the pandemic domestically, while serving the external debt. We present historical evidence from 2001 crisis of Turkey, when fiscal, monetary and exchange rate policies were employed altogether to deal with a triple crisis of balance of payments, banking, and sovereign debt
A survey of the new theories of inflation that have developed over the past two decades in response to the inflationary pressures experienced by Western countries examines the shifting debate from explaining inflation as a "causal" process to explaining its increase as a result of constantly changing expectations.
Latin American neo-structuralism is a cutting-edge, regionally focused economic theory with broad implications for macroeconomics and development economics. Roberto Frenkel has spent five decades developing the theory's core arguments and expanding their application throughout the discipline, revolutionizing our understanding of high inflation and hyperinflation, disinflation programs, and the behavior of foreign exchange markets as well as financial and currency crises in emerging economies. The essays in this collection assess Latin American neo-structuralism's theoretical contributions and viability as the world's economies evolve. The authors discuss Frenkel's work in relation to pricing decisions, inflation and stabilization policy, development and income distribution in Latin America, and macroeconomic policy for economic growth. An entire section focuses on finance and crisis, and the volume concludes with a neo-structuralist analysis of general aspects of economic development. For those seeking a comprehensive introduction to contemporary Latin American economic thought, this collection not only explicates the intricate work of one of its greatest practitioners but also demonstrates its impact on the growth of economics.
This is the second chapter of a forthcoming monograph entitled "On Implementing Full-Fledged Inflation-Targeting Regimes: Saying What You Do and Doing What You Say." We begin by discussing the costs of inflation, including their role in generating boom-bust cycles. Following a general discussion of the need for a nominal anchor, we describe a specific type of monetary anchor, the inflation-targeting regime, and its two key intellectual roots-the absence of long-run trade-offs and the time-inconsistency problem. We conclude by providing a brief introduction to the way in which inflation targeting works.
This book examines the economic transformation of Turkey, a nation that has risen from bare subsistence in the early 1920s to a thriving market economy as it approaches its EU destination. It reviews the liberal period of the 1920s, highlights Turkey’s inward-looking economic and policy environments that prevailed for more than four decades, and provides an in-depth look at the stabilization and restructuring efforts since the 1980s, focusing on the legislative and political reforms implemented to comply with the terms of entry into the EU. This is a timely title that will be of great interest to policy makers, academics, and the general public, and is a valuable reference for students and scholars of international economics, macroeconomics, and public policy.