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The last four decades of human history have seen the emergence of an unprecedented number of 'new' infectious diseases: the familiar roll call includes AIDS, Ebola, H5N1 influenza, hantavirus, hepatitis E, Lassa fever, legionnaires' and Lyme diseases, Marburg fever, Rift Valley fever, SARS, and West Nile. The outbreaks range in scale from global pandemics that have brought death and misery to millions, through to self-limiting outbreaks of mainly local impact. Some outbreaks have erupted explosively but have already faded away; some grumble along or continue to devastate as now persistent features in the medical lexicon; in others, a huge potential threat hangs uncertainly and worryingly in the air. Some outbreaks are merely local, others are worldwide. This book looks at the epidemiological and geographical conditions which underpin disease emergence. What are the processes which lead to emergence? Why now in human history? Where do such diseases emerge and how do they spread or fail to spread around the globe? What is the armoury of surveillance and control measures that may curb the impact of such diseases? But, uniquely, it sets these questions on the modern period of disease emergence in an historical context. First, it uses the historical record to set recent events against a much broader temporal canvas, finding emergence to be a constant theme in disease history rather than one confined to recent decades. It concludes that it is the quantitative pace of emergence, rather than its intrinsic nature, that separates the present period from earlier centuries. Second, it looks at the spatial and ecological setting of emergence, using hundreds of specially-drawn maps to chart the source areas of new diseases and the pathways of their spread. The book is divided into three main sections: Part 1 looks at early disease emergence, Part 2 at the processes of disease emergence, and Part 3 at the future for emergent diseases.
Providing a practical, comprehensive and up-to-date overview of the use of spatial statistics in epidemiology, this book examines spatial analytical methods in conjunction with GIS and remotely sensed data to provide insights into the patterns and processes that underlie disease transmission.
This fully updated edition of Infectious Disease Surveillance is for frontline public health practitioners, epidemiologists, and clinical microbiologists who are engaged in communicable disease control. It is also a foundational text for trainees in public health, applied epidemiology, postgraduate medicine and nursing programs. The second edition portrays both the conceptual framework and practical aspects of infectious disease surveillance. It is a comprehensive resource designed to improve the tracking of infectious diseases and to serve as a starting point in the development of new surveillance systems. Infectious Disease Surveillance includes over 45 chapters from over 100 contributors, and topics organized into six sections based on major themes. Section One highlights the critical role surveillance plays in public health and it provides an overview of the current International Health Regulations (2005) in addition to successes and challenges in infectious disease eradication. Section Two describes surveillance systems based on logical program areas such as foodborne illnesses, vector-borne diseases, sexually transmitted diseases, viral hepatitis healthcare and transplantation associated infections. Attention is devoted to programs for monitoring unexplained deaths, agents of bioterrorism, mass gatherings, and disease associated with international travel. Sections Three and Four explore the uses of the Internet and wireless technologies to advance infectious disease surveillance in various settings with emphasis on best practices based on deployed systems. They also address molecular laboratory methods, and statistical and geospatial analysis, and evaluation of systems for early epidemic detection. Sections Five and Six discuss legal and ethical considerations, communication strategies and applied epidemiology-training programs. The rest of the chapters offer public-private partnerships, as well lessons from the 2009-2010 H1N1 influenza pandemic and future directions for infectious disease surveillance.
Down the ages, war epidemics have decimated the fighting strength of armies, caused the suspension and cancellation of military operations, and have brought havoc to the civil populations of belligerent and non-belligerent states alike. This book examines the historical occurrence and geographical spread of infectious diseases in association with past wars. It addresses an intrinsically geographical question: how are the spatial dynamics of epidemics influenced by military operations and the directives of war? The term historical geography in the title indicates the authors' primary concern with qualitative analyses of archival source materials over a 150-year time period from 1850, and this is combined with quantitative analyses less frequently associated with historical studies. Written from the viewpoints of historical geography, epidemiology, and spatial analysis, this book examines in four parts the historical occurrence and geographical spread of infectious diseases in association with wars. Part I: War and Disease, surveys war-disease associations from early times to 1850. Part II: Temporal Trends studies time trends since 1850. Part III: A Regional Pattern of War Epidemics, examines grand themes in the war-disease complex. Part IV: Prospects, considers a series of war-related issues of epidemiological significance in the twenty-first century.
Since the dawn of medical science, people have recognized connections between a change in the weather and the appearance of epidemic disease. With today's technology, some hope that it will be possible to build models for predicting the emergence and spread of many infectious diseases based on climate and weather forecasts. However, separating the effects of climate from other effects presents a tremendous scientific challenge. Can we use climate and weather forecasts to predict infectious disease outbreaks? Can the field of public health advance from "surveillance and response" to "prediction and prevention?" And perhaps the most important question of all: Can we predict how global warming will affect the emergence and transmission of infectious disease agents around the world? Under the Weather evaluates our current understanding of the linkages among climate, ecosystems, and infectious disease; it then goes a step further and outlines the research needed to improve our understanding of these linkages. The book also examines the potential for using climate forecasts and ecological observations to help predict infectious disease outbreaks, identifies the necessary components for an epidemic early warning system, and reviews lessons learned from the use of climate forecasts in other realms of human activity.
Geospatial health data are essential to inform public health and policy. These data can be used to quantify disease burden, understand geographic and temporal patterns, identify risk factors, and measure inequalities. Geospatial Health Data: Modeling and Visualization with R-INLA and Shiny describes spatial and spatio-temporal statistical methods and visualization techniques to analyze georeferenced health data in R. The book covers the following topics: Manipulate and transform point, areal, and raster data, Bayesian hierarchical models for disease mapping using areal and geostatistical data, Fit and interpret spatial and spatio-temporal models with the Integrated Nested Laplace Approximations (INLA) and the Stochastic Partial Differential Equation (SPDE) approaches, Create interactive and static visualizations such as disease maps and time plots, Reproducible R Markdown reports, interactive dashboards, and Shiny web applications that facilitate the communication of insights to collaborators and policy makers. The book features fully reproducible examples of several disease and environmental applications using real-world data such as malaria in The Gambia, cancer in Scotland and USA, and air pollution in Spain. Examples in the book focus on health applications, but the approaches covered are also applicable to other fields that use georeferenced data including epidemiology, ecology, demography or criminology. The book provides clear descriptions of the R code for data importing, manipulation, modeling and visualization, as well as the interpretation of the results. This ensures contents are fully reproducible and accessible for students, researchers and practitioners.
The 1918-19 influenza epidemic killed more than fifty million people worldwide. The SARS epidemic of 2002-3, by comparison, killed fewer than a thousand. The success in containing the spread of SARS was due largely to the rapid global response of public health authorities, which was aided by insights resulting from mathematical models. Models enabled authorities to better understand how the disease spread and to assess the relative effectiveness of different control strategies. In this book, Lisa Sattenspiel and Alun Lloyd provide a comprehensive introduction to mathematical models in epidemiology and show how they can be used to predict and control the geographic spread of major infectious diseases. Key concepts in infectious disease modeling are explained, readers are guided from simple mathematical models to more complex ones, and the strengths and weaknesses of these models are explored. The book highlights the breadth of techniques available to modelers today, such as population-based and individual-based models, and covers specific applications as well. Sattenspiel and Lloyd examine the powerful mathematical models that health authorities have developed to understand the spatial distribution and geographic spread of influenza, measles, foot-and-mouth disease, and SARS. Analytic methods geographers use to study human infectious diseases and the dynamics of epidemics are also discussed. A must-read for students, researchers, and practitioners, no other book provides such an accessible introduction to this exciting and fast-evolving field.
Infectious diseases are the leading cause of death globally, particularly among children and young adults. The spread of new pathogens and the threat of antimicrobial resistance pose particular challenges in combating these diseases. Major Infectious Diseases identifies feasible, cost-effective packages of interventions and strategies across delivery platforms to prevent and treat HIV/AIDS, other sexually transmitted infections, tuberculosis, malaria, adult febrile illness, viral hepatitis, and neglected tropical diseases. The volume emphasizes the need to effectively address emerging antimicrobial resistance, strengthen health systems, and increase access to care. The attainable goals are to reduce incidence, develop innovative approaches, and optimize existing tools in resource-constrained settings.
Recent years have seen an explosion in new kinds of data on infectious diseases, including data on social contacts, whole genome sequences of pathogens, biomarkers for susceptibility to infection, serological panel data, and surveillance data. The Handbook of Infectious Disease Data Analysis provides an overview of many key statistical methods that have been developed in response to such new data streams and the associated ability to address key scientific and epidemiological questions. A unique feature of the Handbook is the wide range of topics covered. Key features Contributors include many leading researchers in the field Divided into four main sections: Basic concepts, Analysis of Outbreak Data, Analysis of Seroprevalence Data, Analysis of Surveillance Data Numerous case studies and examples throughout Provides both introductory material and key reference material