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This book provides a macroeconomic analysis of the Indian economy. It is a long-run study that spans the period from 1950-51 to 1992-93, encompassing the various turning points in India's economic policy and development strategies. The macroeconometric model used in the book integrates the monetary and real sectors of the economy. In order to provide theoretical underpinnings for the model, the book traces the development of macroeconomic theory including Keynesian, structuralist, and supply-side economics. The model explains the public sector's current and capital expenditures, rather than treating them as exogenous variables. A subrecursive system of prices is formulated in terms of unit cost based on the flow of factor income generated in the process of production, monetary variable, and agriculture supply factors. The model analyzes and evaluates policy changes in India, particularly since 1984. It is used to derive the appropriate mix of fiscal, monetary, and trade policies needed to generate significant economic growth in 1997-2000 in a non-inflationary environment. While fiscal and monetary discipline is vital in this regard, public-sector investment plays an important role in capital formation and economic growth.
This book provides a macroeconomic analysis of the Indian economy. It is a long-run study that spans the period from 1950-51 to 1992-93, encompassing the various turning points in India's economic policy and development strategies. The macroeconometric model used in the book integrates the monetary and real sectors of the economy. In order to provide theoretical underpinnings for the model, the book traces the development of macroeconomic theory including Keynesian, structuralist, and supply-side economics. The model explains the public sector's current and capital expenditures, rather than treating them as exogenous variables. A sub-recursive system of prices is formulated in terms of unit cost based on the flow of factor income generated in the process of production, monetary variable, and agriculture supply factors.The model analyzes and evaluates policy changes in India, particularly since 1984. It is used to derive the appropriate mix of fiscal, monetary, and trade policies needed to generate significant economic growth in 1997-2000 in a non-inflationary environment. While fiscal and monetary discipline is vital in this regard, public-sector investment plays an important role in capital formation and economic growth.
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
The COVID-19 pandemic struck the global economy after a decade that featured a broad-based slowdown in productivity growth. Global Productivity: Trends, Drivers, and Policies presents the first comprehensive analysis of the evolution and drivers of productivity growth, examines the effects of COVID-19 on productivity, and discusses a wide range of policies needed to rekindle productivity growth. The book also provides a far-reaching data set of multiple measures of productivity for up to 164 advanced economies and emerging market and developing economies, and it introduces a new sectoral database of productivity. The World Bank has created an extraordinary book on productivity, covering a large group of countries and using a wide variety of data sources. There is an emphasis on emerging and developing economies, whereas the prior literature has concentrated on developed economies. The book seeks to understand growth patterns and quantify the role of (among other things) the reallocation of factors, technological change, and the impact of natural disasters, including the COVID-19 pandemic. This book is must-reading for specialists in emerging economies but also provides deep insights for anyone interested in economic growth and productivity. Martin Neil Baily Senior Fellow, The Brookings Institution Former Chair, U.S. President’s Council of Economic Advisers This is an important book at a critical time. As the book notes, global productivity growth had already been slowing prior to the COVID-19 pandemic and collapses with the pandemic. If we want an effective recovery, we have to understand what was driving these long-run trends. The book presents a novel global approach to examining the levels, growth rates, and drivers of productivity growth. For anyone wanting to understand or influence productivity growth, this is an essential read. Nicholas Bloom William D. Eberle Professor of Economics, Stanford University The COVID-19 pandemic hit a global economy that was already struggling with an adverse pre-existing condition—slow productivity growth. This extraordinarily valuable and timely book brings considerable new evidence that shows the broad-based, long-standing nature of the slowdown. It is comprehensive, with an exceptional focus on emerging market and developing economies. Importantly, it shows how severe disasters (of which COVID-19 is just the latest) typically harm productivity. There are no silver bullets, but the book suggests sensible strategies to improve growth prospects. John Fernald Schroders Chaired Professor of European Competitiveness and Reform and Professor of Economics, INSEAD
A Tribute To The Great Economist Prof. A.M. Khusro. This Book Seeks To Address Issues Of Current Relevance - Agriculture. Land Reforms, And Anti-Poverty Programmes, Environment, Globalisation, Liberalisation And Trade, Macro Models And Growth, Population, Secularism And Religion.
This study systematically evaluates the economic consequences of globalization for India in the light of the attack of the critics against globalization on grounds of economic stagnation, ?deindustrialization,? ?denationalization,? destabilization, and impoverishment. On the basis of abundant qualitative and quantitative data, it strongly repudiates the case of the critics, and demonstrates that India has been a significant beneficiary of the globalization process. Instead of economic stagnation, India has seen acceleration in its average annual rate of economic growth. Instead of deindustrialization, there has been substantial industrial growth and, indeed, acceleration in the industrial growth rate.Instead of denationalization, business in India is now more competitive and is venturingforth into the global market; increased imports and the entry of foreign multinationalshave not swamped it; essentially, India is master of its own destiny. Instead of economicdestabilization, there has been since the paradigm shift in economic policy in 1991 a marked absence of economic crisis in India. And, instead of impoverishment, India hasseen a long and unprecedented period of welfare enhancement since it began its reintegration into the world economy in 1975; there has been a secular decline in povertysince then, while inequality has not increased much. The policy conclusion that flows from this experience is that India ought to be, in general, more open to globalization in the interest of sustaining the acceleration in economic growth and enhancing the welfare of its people. To this end it should push forward with the reform agenda.This is the twenty-second publication in Policy Studies, a peer-reviewed East-West Center Washington series that presents scholarly analysis of key contemporary domestic and international political, economic, and strategic issues affecting Asia in a policy relevant manner.
This important book consists of surveys of high-frequency financial data analysis and econometric forecasting, written by pioneers in these areas including Nobel laureate Lawrence Klein. Some of the chapters were presented as tutorials to an audience in the Econometric Forecasting and High-Frequency Data Analysis Workshop at the Institute for Mathematical Science, National University of Singapore in May 2006. They will be of interest to researchers working in macroeconometrics as well as financial econometrics. Moreover, readers will find these chapters useful as a guide to the literature as well as suggestions for future research.
Global Economic Prospects, January 2022
In this volume, leading economists assess India's economic performance, policies and institutions.