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Abstract: Schiff considers the policy options of the West Bank and Gaza with respect to trade and the export of labor services. He concludes that: Nondiscriminatory trade policy is unambiguously superior to a free trade agreement with Israel; The West Bank and Gaza should pursue a nondiscriminatory trade policy with all its neighbors, but only on the condition that the trade policy be open, transparent, and enforced by a credible lock-in mechanism. Otherwise, a customs union with Israel may be preferable; The Palestinian Authority should establish a system of fee-based permits for Palestinians working in Israel; The Palestinian Authority should consider allowing Jordanians access to the West Bank and Gaza labor market. This paper"a product of Trade, Development Research Group"is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze trade and regional integration policies in the Middle East. The author may be contacted at mschiff@@worldbank.org.
Abstract: Real GDP and oil prices are decomposed into common stochastic trend and cycle processes using structural time series models. Potential real GDP is represented by the level of the trend component of real GDP. The potential rate of growth of real GDP is represented by the stochastic drift element of the trend component. Cuevas finds that there is a strong association at the trend and cycle frequencies between real GDP and the real price of oil. This association is also robust in the presence of key economic policy variables. From 1970-80, when the underlying annual rate of increase of the real price of oil was 12 percent, the underlying annual rate of increase of potential GDP in Venezuela was 2.6 percent. By contrast, from 1981-2000 when the underlying rate of increase of the real price of oil was -5 percent, the underlying growth rate of potential GDP fell 1.5 percent. However, the strength of association between the underlying growth of oil prices and real GDP has fallen considerably since the early 1980s, suggesting that oil cannot be relied on as an engine for future growth in Venezuela. This paper"a product of the Colombia, Mexico, and Venezuela Country Management Unit, Latin America and the Caribbean Region"is part of a larger effort in the region to encourage research on macroeconomic issues. The author may be contacted at mcuevas@@worldbank.org.
Abstract: Fafchamps, Hamine, and Zeufack test two alternative models of learning to export: productivity learning, whereby firms learn to reduce production costs, and market learning, whereby firms learn to design products that appeal to foreign consumers. Using panel and cross-section data on Moroccan manufacturers, the authors uncover evidence of market learning but little evidence of productivity learning. These findings are consistent with the concentration of Moroccan manufacturing exports in consumer items"the garment, textile, and leather sectors. It is the young firms that export. Most do so immediately after creation. The authors also find that, among exporters, new products are exported very rapidly after production has begun. The share of exported output nevertheless increases for 2-3 years after a new product is introduced. Old firms are unlikely to switch to exports, even in response to changes in macroeconomic incentives. The authors find a positive relationship between exports and productivity and conclude that it is the result of self-selection: it is the more productive firms that move into exports. Policy implications are discussed. This paper"a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group"is part of a larger effort in the group to investigate the microeconomic foundations of export and growth performance using plant-level data. The authors may be contacted at marcel.fafchamps@@economics.ox.ac.uk or azeufack@@worldbank.org.
Abstract: Vietnam's high economic growth in the 1990s led to sharp reductions in poverty, yet over the same time period inequality increased. This increased inequality may be less worrisome if Vietnamese households experience a high degree of income mobility over time. This is because high mobility implies that the long-run distribution of income is more equally distributed than the short-run distribution, since some individuals or households are poor in some years, while others are poor in other years. Glewwe and Nguyen examine economic mobility in Vietnam using recent household survey panel data. The problem of measurement error in the income variable, which exaggerates the degree of economic mobility, is directly addressed. Correcting for measurement error dramatically changes the results. At least one half of measured mobility is because of measurement error. This paper"a product of Macroeconomics and Growth, Development Research Group"is part of a larger effort in the group to study household welfare and poverty reduction in Vietnam. Paul Glewwe may be contacted at pglewwe@@dept.agecon.umn.edu.
Abstract: Hoekman analyzes what actions could be taken in the context of the World Trade Organization's Doha negotiations to assist countries in reaping benefits from deeper trade integration. He discusses the policy agenda that confronts many developing countries and identifies a number of focal points that could be used both as targets and as benchmarks to increase the likelihood that WTO negotiations will support development. To achieve these targets, Hoekman proposes a number of negotiating modalities for both goods and services-related market access issues, as well as rule-making in regulatory areas. Throughout the analysis, the author refers to the work of J. Michael Finger, whose numerous writings in this area have not only greatly influenced the thinking of policymakers and researchers on the interaction between trade policy, economic development, and the GATT/WTO trading system, but also provides a model for how to pursue effective policy research. This paper--a product of Trade, Development Research Group--is part of a larger effort in the group to analyze the development aspects of WTO rules. The author may be contacted at [email protected].
Abstract: There has been much debate about how much India's poor have shared in the economic growth unleashed by economic reforms in the 1990s. Datt and Ravallion argue that India has probably maintained its 1980s rate of poverty reduction in the 1990s. However, there is considerable diversity in performance across states. This holds some important clues for understanding why economic growth has not done more for India's poor. India's economic growth in the 1990s has not been occurring in the states where it would have the most impact on poverty nationally. If not for the sectoral and geographic imbalance of growth, the national rate of growth would have generated a rate of poverty reduction that was double India's historical trend rate. States with relatively low levels of initial rural development and human capital development were not well-suited to reduce poverty in response to economic growth. The study's results are consistent with the view that achieving higher aggregate economic growth is only one element of an effective strategy for poverty reduction in India. The sectoral and geographic composition of growth is also important, as is the need to redress existing inequalities in human resource development and between rural and urban areas. This paper"a product of the Poverty Team, Development Research Group"is part of a larger effort in the department to better understand the relationship between economic growth and poverty. The authors may be contacted at gdatt@@worldbank.org or mravallion@@worldbank.org.
Serven examines empirically the link between real exchange rate uncertainty and private investment in developing countries using a large cross country-time series data set. He builds a GARCH-based measure of real exchange rate volatility and finds that it has a strong negative impact on investment, after controlling for other standard investment determinants and taking into account their potential endogeneity. The impact of uncertainty is not uniform, however. There is some evidence of threshold effects, so that uncertainty only matters when it exceeds some critical level. In addition, the negative impact of real exchange rate uncertainty on investment is significantly larger in economies that are highly open and in those with less developed financial systems.