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This paper explores how fiscal policy can affect medium- to long-term growth. It identifies the main channels through which fiscal policy can influence growth and distills practical lessons for policymakers. The particular mix of policy measures, however, will depend on country-specific conditions, capacities, and preferences. The paper draws on the Fund’s extensive technical assistance on fiscal reforms as well as several analytical studies, including a novel approach for country studies, a statistical analysis of growth accelerations following fiscal reforms, and simulations of an endogenous growth model.
While recent developments in monetary theory have been fast to spread to policy analysis and practice and the media, the same is not true of fiscal policy, and a void has emerged. Issues such as timing, cyclical adjustments, long-term sustainability, and social implications are often seen as detached from discussions in the public arena. This book fills this gap. It delivers a keen assessment of the role and scope of current fiscal policy. New contributions and critical reviews of state of the art research analyze fiscal policy in terms of viability, potency, consequences and sustainability, and also shed light on its relation to economic and political ideas. The general tone of this volume is cautiously favourable of fiscal activism, although the emphasis is placed more on medium-term adjustments than on short-term ‘fine-tuning’. The authors believe that the legacy of the last fiscal revolution has been an excessively negative view of deficits and debt, and believe that this volume will contribute to open a dialogue on fiscal issues, and bring back a more balanced view of fiscal policy. With contributions from leading authorities including Barbara Bergmann, Jeffrey Frankel and David Colander, this is a major new contribution to the field.
This paper provides new evidence of the macroeconomic effects of public investment in advanced economies. Using public investment forecast errors to identify the causal effect of government investment in a sample of 17 OECD economies since 1985 and model simulations, the paper finds that increased public investment raises output, both in the short term and in the long term, crowds in private investment, and reduces unemployment. Several factors shape the macroeconomic effects of public investment. When there is economic slack and monetary accommodation, demand effects are stronger, and the public-debt-to-GDP ratio may actually decline. Public investment is also more effective in boosting output in countries with higher public investment efficiency and when it is financed by issuing debt.
The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration finds that the long-term impact of immigration on the wages and employment of native-born workers overall is very small, and that any negative impacts are most likely to be found for prior immigrants or native-born high school dropouts. First-generation immigrants are more costly to governments than are the native-born, but the second generation are among the strongest fiscal and economic contributors in the U.S. This report concludes that immigration has an overall positive impact on long-run economic growth in the U.S. More than 40 million people living in the United States were born in other countries, and almost an equal number have at least one foreign-born parent. Together, the first generation (foreign-born) and second generation (children of the foreign-born) comprise almost one in four Americans. It comes as little surprise, then, that many U.S. residents view immigration as a major policy issue facing the nation. Not only does immigration affect the environment in which everyone lives, learns, and works, but it also interacts with nearly every policy area of concern, from jobs and the economy, education, and health care, to federal, state, and local government budgets. The changing patterns of immigration and the evolving consequences for American society, institutions, and the economy continue to fuel public policy debate that plays out at the national, state, and local levels. The Economic and Fiscal Consequences of Immigration assesses the impact of dynamic immigration processes on economic and fiscal outcomes for the United States, a major destination of world population movements. This report will be a fundamental resource for policy makers and law makers at the federal, state, and local levels but extends to the general public, nongovernmental organizations, the business community, educational institutions, and the research community.
This handbook evaluates the persistent problems in the fiscal systems of state and local governments and what can be done to solve them. Each chapter provides a description of the discipline area, examines major developments in policy practices and research, and opines on future prospects.
The pamphlet (which updates the 1995 Guidelines for Fiscal Adjustment) presents the IMF’s approach to fiscal adjustment, and focuses on the role that sound government finances play in promoting macroeconomic stability and growth. Structured around five practical questions—when to adjust, how to assess the fiscal position, what makes for successful adjustment, how to carry out adjustment, and which institutions can help—it covers topics such as tax policies, debt sustainability, fiscal responsibility laws, and transparency.
We often think of fiscal decisions as being made by a single government, but in the United States the reality is that an astounding number of entities have the power to tax and spend. State, local, and federal governments all play crucial roles in the U.S. fiscal system, and the interrelation has been the source of continuing controversy. This fact is the focus of the seven papers and commentaries presented in this volume, the result of a conference sponsored by the NBER. The contributors use various quantitative tools to study policy issues, obtaining results that will interest policymakers and researchers working in the areas of taxation and public finance. The first three papers study the distribution of power and responsibilities among the various levels of government. John Joseph Wallis and Wallace E. Oates look at the extend and evolution of decentralization in the state and local sector; Robert P. Inman examines the growth of federal grants and the structure of congressional decision making; and Jeffrey S. Zax investigates the effects of the number of government jurisdictions on aggregate local public debt and expenditures. The next three papers look at the deductibility of state and local taxes on federal tax returns. Using an econometric analysis, Douglas Holtz-Eakin and Harvey S. Rosen examine the effects of deductibility on revenue sources and level of expenditures. Lawrence B. Lindsey looks at how deductibility affects the level and type of taxation. George R. Zodrow uses a two-sector general equilibrium model to investigate revenue effects of deductibility. Finally, Charles R. Hulten and Robert M. Schwab analyze the problem of developing an accurate estimate of income for the state and local sector, finding that conventional accounting procedures have underestimated the income generated by a startling $100 billion.