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Expert knowledge of boreal forest succession is used widely in forest management in boreal Ontario, but the level of uncertainty of this mainly implicit knowledge is unknown. Therefore, in this study expert knowledge of boreal forest succession was elicited, it's uncertainty quantified, and the sources of this uncertainty investigated. This report consists of four main parts. The introduction presents examples of the use of forest succession knowledge in forest management in boreal Ontario. The methods section provides background information about the concept of knowledge uncertainty and possible assessment methods and describes the characteristics of experts. The results section details the quantification of the various components of uncertainty and describes the distribution of uncertainty. The conclusions section presents the strengths and weaknesses of this study and discusses the implications of the study results for forest policy and management in Ontario.--Includes text from document.
Forest succession can be viewed, from a tree-centric point of view, as the temporal pattern of changes in tree species composition that occur following a disturbance that destroyed the existing forest cover, and includes the initial re-establishment of the forest cover. Fire is one such natural disturbance in boreal forests. The broad goal of the work reported here was to explore the body of boreal forest succession knowledge, to elucidate its strengths, weaknesses, and gaps, and to quantify its levels of uncertainty.--Document.
Typically, landscape ecologists use empirical observations to conduct research and devise solutions for applied problems in conservation and management. In some instances, they rely on advice and input of experienced professionals in both developing and applying knowledge. Given the wealth of expert knowledge and the risks of its informal and implicit applications in landscape ecology, it is necessary to formally recognize and characterize expert knowledge and bring rigor to methods for its applications. In this context, the broad goal of this book is to introduce the concept of expert knowledge and examine its role in landscape ecological applications. We plan to do so in three steps: First we introduce the topic to landscape ecologists, explore salient characteristics of experts and expert knowledge, and describe methods used in capturing and formalizing that knowledge. Second, we present examples of research in landscape ecology from a variety of ecosystems and geographic locations that formally incorporate expert knowledge. These case studies address a range of topics that will interest landscape ecologists and other resource management and conservation professionals including the specific roles of expert knowledge in developing, testing, parameterizing, and applying models; estimating the uncertainty in expert knowledge; developing methods of formalizing and incorporating expert knowledge; and using expert knowledge as competing models and a source of alternate hypotheses. Third, we synthesize the state of knowledge on this topic and critically examine the advantages and disadvantages of incorporating expert knowledge in landscape ecological applications. The disciplinary subject areas we address are broad and cover much of the scope of contemporary landscape ecology, including broad-scale forest management and conservation, quantifying forest disturbances and succession, conservation of habitats for a range of avian and mammal species, vulnerability and conservation of marine ecosystems, and the spread and impacts of invasive plants. This text incorporates the collective experience and knowledge of over 35 researchers in landscape ecology representing a diverse range of disciplinary subject areas and geographic locations. Through this text, we will catalyze further thought and investigations on expert knowledge among the target readership of researchers, practitioners, and graduate students in landscape ecology.
"This bibliography includes a list and descriptions of the content of publications written or co-authored by staff of the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources' Ontario Forest Research Institute between 2006 and 2010. During this five-year period, over 150 publications were produced by the institute's 14 research scientists, including a book, 83 journal articles, 31 reports, 10 technical notes, 5 newsletters, and 11 papers/summaries in conference/ workshop proceedings. The overall focus of the publications is forest resource management-related research and practice. Topical areas and scales of investigation are diverse and include natural disturbance regimes and landscape dynamics; carbon budgets and effects of climate change on forests; and silviculture studies on site preparation, tree improvement, vegetation management, growth and yield, disease management, and harvesting in conifer, mixedwood, and hardwood forests. Author and subject indexes are provided."--Document.
Forest succession knowledge is used extensively to support forest management decisions. However, that knowledge is often implicit and thus not documented or transferable. The Succession Pathway Tool (SPT) is a software package for Windows designed to help users of succession knowledge make their knowledge of forest succession explicit, visualize it using networks, and explore its emerging properties using stochastic aspatial simulations. It also provides a means to document and share forest succession knowledge. This document introduces prospective users to the software tool and provides step-by-step instructions and a brief tutorial with examples of how to apply the tool. Information about how to export documented succession knowledge for use in other tools, including the Boreal Forest Landscape Dynamics Simulator (BFOLDS) is also included.--Document.
This bibliography was produced to assist foresters and scientists interested in modelling boreal forest succession at broad scales. It contains more than 600 citations describing existing knowledge on succession in North American boreal forests, and the current state-of-knowledge in modelling succession, with particular emphasis on broad scales. References on succession in boreal forests are grouped by geographic and taxonomic categories. This bibliography also provides information on theories and concepts of succession modelling, issues of scale in modelling succession, the spatial process of propagule dispersal, and the probalistic modelling of forest succession. An author index is provided to help users located citations of interest.
This paper presents a review of the literature on boreal forest cover succession, using 175 publications that provided quantitative data based on original information from field studies. The following aspects of forest succession were examined: disturbances; pathways of post-disturbance forest cover change; timing of successional steps; probabilities of post-disturbance forest cover change; and effects of geographic location & ecological site conditions on forest cover change. The paper also outlines an approach for incorporating published knowledge on forest succession into stochastic simulation models of boreal forest cover change in a standardized manner.
Forest land managers face the challenges of preparing their forests for the impacts of climate change. However, climate change adds a new dimension to the task of developing and testing science-based management options to deal with the effects of stressors on forest ecosystems in the southern United States. The large spatial scale and complex interactions make traditional experimental approaches difficult. Yet, the current progression of climate change science offers new insights from recent syntheses, models, and experiments, providing enough information to start planning now for a future that will likely include an increase in disturbances and rapid changes in forest conditions. Climate Change Adaptation and Mitigation Management Options: A Guide for Natural Resource Managers in Southern Forest Ecosystems provides a comprehensive analysis of forest management options to guide natural resource management in the face of future climate change. Topics include potential climate change impacts on wildfire, insects, diseases, and invasives, and how these in turn might affect the values of southern forests that include timber, fiber, and carbon; water quality and quantity; species and habitats; and recreation. The book also considers southern forest carbon sequestration, vulnerability to biological threats, and migration of native tree populations due to climate change. This book utilizes the most relevant science and brings together science experts and land managers from various disciplines and regions throughout the south to combine science, models, and on-the-ground experience to develop management options. Providing a link between current management actions and future management options that would anticipate a changing climate, the authors hope to ensure a broader range of options for managing southern forests and protecting their values in the future.