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The unemployment rate in the euro area appears to contain a significant nonstationary component, suggesting that some shocks have permanent effects on that variable. I explore possible sources of this nonstationarity through the lens of a New Keynesian model with unemployment, and assess their empirical relevance.
This paper painstakingly restores a vintage empirical model of unemployment determination by interacting shocks and institutions, and runs it on recent data featuring dramatic shocks and controversial institutional change. Theoretical insights and empirical results suggest that reforms and capital flows contribute sensible and interrelated explanations for the recent twists and turns of unemployment rates in Europe and elsewhere.
This volume is devoted to the hysteresis phenomenon in economic relationships. This topic has received renewed attention in economics especially in the late eigh ties. Since the issue is not settled there is still a growing literature on it. The aim of this volume is to summarize the findings, present new results, and to draw attention to further research. All papers are written for this volume and are not published elsewhere. I am very grateful to all authors and referees without whose prompt and generous help this volume would not appear in the present form. A short summary of each paper is given in section 5 of the overview paper. Konstanz, January 1990 Wolfgang Franz University of Konstanz Contents Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview W. Franz . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 1 Hysteresis in Trade R. Baldwin . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 19 Some Evidence on the Membership Hysteresis Hypothesis in Europe M. C. Burda . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 35 Insider-Outsider Influences on Industry Wages D. T. Coe . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 55 Testing for Hysteresis in Unemployment An Unobserved Components Approach A. Jaeger and M. Parkinson. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 77 Unemployment and Deterioration of Human Capital J. Moller . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 91 Hysteresis, Nairn and Long Term Unemployment in Austria P. Neudorfer, K. Pichelmann and M. Wagner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 109 Hysteresis in Economic Relationships: An Overview l By W. Franz Can the socialist man be created so as not to show any hysteresis trace of his bourgois or peasant past? N. Georgescu-Roegen (l971. p. 126) 1 Introduction The hysteresis phenomenon has received renewed attention in economic science.
First published in 1982. Unemployment was a major scourge of the advanced capitalist countries in the 1930s, but in the golden age of post-war expansion which lasted until 1973, it had seemingly been vanquished by enlightened economic policy. Since 1973, unemployment has re-emerged as a major problem, along with accelerated inflation and problems of structural adjustment imposed by soaring energy prices. The rise in European unemployment came in two surges as a result of the generalised recessions of 1974-5 and 1980-1. At the beginning of 1982 unemployment in the European Community was running close to 10% of the labour force compared with a ‘norm’ of under 2% in the 1960s. These abrupt and serious changes in the labour market have created major new dilemmas for economic policy and have stirred significant and acrimonious theoretical controversy. For this reason it is useful to analyse the policy issues and the academic debate in a comparative perspective. The present volume contains three comparative papers on the employment policy discussions in Germany, the Netherlands and the UK as well as papers examining the theoretical adequacy of Keynesian, monetarist, structuralist and Marxist reactions to the new issues. The papers are all accompanies by a critique from the discussants.