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Human Judgment and Decision Processes is a collection of papers that covers the various theoretical frameworks that relate judgment to decision making. The book is comprised of 10 chapters that cover both mathematical models involved in decision making and interpersonal aspect of judgment process. The first five chapters cover papers about decision making. The subjects of the papers include multiattribute utility measurement for social decision making; portfolio theory and the measurement of risk; and information-integration analysis of risky decision making. The other half of the text deals with the judgment process, which includes topics such as interaction of judge and informational components; judgment and decision processes in the formation and change of social attitudes; and the role of probabilistic and syllogistic reasoning in cognitive organization and social inference. The book will be of great use to psychologists involved in research on human judgment and decision process.
Originally published in 1981, this volume presents the domain of personality as a fuzzy set that includes features previously identified with cognitive and social psychology. Few of the individual contributions are centrally concerned with individual differences and cross-situational stability, but these traditional themes certainly appear in several of the chapters. The remaining chapters deal with the general processes mediating the interaction between the person and the social environment, filling out the fuzzy set of personality psychology. Part 1 seeks to locate contemporary trends in the cognitive psychology of personality against a backdrop of historical events. The chapters in Part 2 discuss some of the cognitive processes mediating social behaviour. Part 3 contains contributions concerned with the rules by which people make judgments about objects in the social world. The self, a dominant topic in personality theory and research, is treated extensively in Part 4. Although many of the chapters are explicitly concerned with the relations between cognition and action – after all, most human interaction takes the form of judgments and communication – the contributions in Part 5 make the links to overt behaviour. Finally, Part 6 offers two discussions of the previous contributions from the perspective of cognitive psychology.
There are four basic goals for research in SJT (Social Judgment Theory): - to analyze judgment tasks and judgmental processes; - to analyze the relations between judgmental systems (i.e. to analyze agreement and its structure), and between tasks and judgmental systems (i.e. to analyze achievement and its structure; - to understand how relations between judgmental systems and between judgmental systems and tasks come to be whatever they are (i.e. to understand processes of communication and learning and their effects upon achievement and agreement); - to find means of improving the relation between judgmental systems (improving agreement) and between judgmental systems and tasks (improving achievement).
The Blackwell Handbook of Judgment and Decision Making is a state-of-the art overview of current topics and research in the study of how people make evaluations, draw inferences, and make decisions under conditions of uncertainty and conflict. Contains contributions by experts from various disciplines that reflect current trends and controversies on judgment and decision making. Provides a glimpse at the many approaches that have been taken in the study of judgment and decision making and portrays the major findings in the field. Presents examinations of the broader roles of social, emotional, and cultural influences on decision making. Explores applications of judgment and decision making research to important problems in a variety of professional contexts, including finance, accounting, medicine, public policy, and the law.
Some years ago we, the editors of this volume, found out about each other's deeply rooted interest in the concept of time, the usage of time, and the effects of shortage of time on human thought and behavior. Since then we have fostered the idea of bringing together different perspectives in this area. We are now, there fore, very content that our idea has materialized in the present volume. There is both anecdotal and empirical evidence to suggest that time con straints may affect behavior. Managers and other professional decision makers frequently identify time pressure as a major constraint on their behavior (Isen berg, 1984). Chamberlain and Zika (1990) provide empirical support for this view, showing that complaints of insufficient time are the most frequently report ed everyday minor stressors or hassles for all groups of people except the elderly. Similarly, studies in occupational settings have identified time pressure as one of the central components of workload (Derrich, 1988; O'Donnel & Eggemeier, 1986).
From various vantage points the authors consider the topic of judgment and decision in policy formation. Richard Lamm, governor of Colorado, describes the problem of utilizing scientific knowledge in the context of political survival. Joseph Coates, assistant to the director, Congressional Office of Technology Assessment, explores the nature of public policy issues. Kenneth Hammond, director of the Center for the Study of Judgment and decision in Policy Formation at the University of Colorado, describes the competence of thought that can he brought to bear on public policy issues. Paul Slovic, Decision Research Inc., addresses the problem of risk assessment in policy formation from the point of view of a cognitive psychologist. Ward Edwards, director, Social Science Research Institute, University of Southern California, describes the general manner in which decision theory may be applied to policy formation. Kenneth Boulding, program director, Institute of Behavioral Science, University of Colorado, provides an overview of judgment and decision in policy formation. Eillel Einhorn, professor of industrial psychology, University of Chicago, shows the consequences of fallible judgment for social policy formation. Kenneth Hammond and Leonard Adelman provide an example of the application of judgment analysis to a public policy issue.
This work examines issues such as medical diagnosis, weather forecasting, labour negotiations, risk, public policy, business strategy, eyewitnesses, and jury decisions. This is a revision of Arkes and Hammond's 1986 collection of papers on judgment and decision-making. Updated and extended, the focus of this volume is interdisciplinary and applied.
This collection of articles aspires to be a permanent record of ideas which are likely to become important determinants in the future of management sciences. These papers were initially presented at the first session on Multiple Criteria Decision Making QMCDM) organized under the auspices of The Institute of Management Sciences (TIMS). All works were prepared by leading spokesmen for three generations of OR/MS change agents. Special mention must be made of the dynamic role which Professor Martin K. Starr played in organizing the program of the TIMS XXII International Meeting. In May, 1973, Professor Starr, who was President of TIMS and Program Chairman of the Kyoto conference, requested me to chair the MCDM session. Throughout the long period of formative inter change, Dr. Starr demonstrated his full and continuing support of both the event and the MCDM field. On July 25, 1975, surrounded by the rocky gardens of the Kyoto International Conference Hall (KICH), located on the shore of Takaraga Ike, we engaged in a day-long discussion of MCDM. Our "talk together in Kyoto" was a professional experience of the highest intensity for participants, speakers and audience alike.
The papers in this Special Issue are derived from presentations at the 17th Conference on Subjective Probability, Utility and Decision Making.