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In areas of dynamic land development, it is important to achieve a delicate balance between traffic growth and functional integrity of the road system. Traffic Impact Analysis (TIA) study is widely adopted to assess the future traffic conditions and are often sole basis for the decision makers in improving the operational performance of the system. No research has been done to evaluate the effectiveness of the TIA studies in order to yield better estimates. The objective of the research is to conduct an operational evaluation of 6 selected TIA case sites and recommend procedures that could be adopted in future so as to improve operational performance. The evaluation of operational performance and forecasting methods is conducted using three different methods. The first method studies the effect of the new development after construction while the second method evaluates the effectiveness of TIA studies in estimating the future conditions and also addresses questions like "what was expected to happen and what is happening now?" The third method identifies the effectiveness of the adopted analytical procedures of this study in replicating the real world behavior. The measures of effectiveness (MOEs) considered for evaluation of data are vehicular volume, total number of hourly stops, 50th percentile queue length, average intersection delay, and level-of-service (LOS). Results obtained from the evaluations indicated that new developments considerably affect the traffic operational performance. The forecasted traffic volumes and traffic conditions are often over-estimated in TIA studies and the results from the statistical analysis also favor the conclusion. It can be concluded that considering regional traffic growth rates, peak hour factor (PHF) and heavy vehicle percentages in TIA would yield relatively better forecasts. Incomplete development with vacant parcels and improvements were observed at several case sites, possibly due to the current state of economy. Conducting analysis assuming 3 years, 5 years and 10 years as complete build out year would help agencies in better allocation of resources based on needs.
This book is a collection of selected research papers from the 14th conference of the Transportation Planning and Implementation Methodologies for Developing Countries (TPMDC). It covers the broad area of transportation planning and policy, pavement design and engineering, emerging technologies in transportation, traffic management, operations, and safety, and sustainable mobility in transportation. The book aims to provide deeper understanding of the transportation issues, solutions, and learnings from the implemented solutions. This book will be of best interest for academicians, researchers, policy makers, and practitioners.
The INDOT Reviewer's Guide to Traffic Impact Analysis (TIA) is a product of SPR-3605 Updated Methods for Traffic Impact Analysis. It is intended to provide guidance to individuals who are charged with the responsibility to evaluate the Traffic Impact Analysis (TIA) reports submitted to INDOT (or other public agencies). This guide replaces the 1992 Reviewer's Guide for Traffic Impact Studies. The 1992 Guide was essentially an extended version of the 1992 Applicant's Guide to Traffic Impact Studies. This time, the Reviewer's Guide is written with the knowledge that the Applicant's Guide is available to both applicants and reviewers. The 2013 Reviewer's Guide focuses on added information that may help the reviewer assess the TIA report contents.
The INDOT Applicant's Guide to Traffic Impact Analysis (TIA) is a product of SPR-3605 "Updated Methods for Traffic Impact Analysis". The purpose of this study was to review the Applicant's and Reviewer's Guides that were published in 1992 and make changes that would bring them in line with the methods and conditions that have emerged since then. This guide is intended to establish a standard framework for traffic impact analysis within Indiana, increasing consistency in study requests, preparation and review. A standardized procedure will enable the TIA study preparer to present the study findings and recommendations in a systematic manner consistent with the reviewer's expectations. The guide is not intended to make things more complicated and time-consuming. On the contrary, with a standard framework, the time involved in the process will decrease for both parties. The Applicant's Guide allows enough flexibility to the study preparer to use innovative methods based on sound engineering judgment and the conditions at a specific site. However, this should be done with the prior consent of the study reviewer(s).
Traffic forecasting techniques—such as extrapolation of previous years' traffic volumes, regional travel demand models, or local trip generation rates—help planners determine needed transportation improvements. Thus, knowing the accuracy of these techniques can help analysts better consider the range of transportation investments for a given location. To determine this accuracy, the forecasts from 39 Virginia studies (published from 1967-2010) were compared to observed volumes for the forecast year. Excluding statewide forecasts, the number of segments in each study ranged from 1 to 240. For each segment, the difference between the forecast volume and the observed volume divided by the observed volume gives a percent error such that a segment with a perfect forecast has an error of 0%. For the 39 studies, the median absolute percent error ranged from 1% to 134%, with an average value of 40%. Slightly more than one-fourth of the error was explained by three factors: the method used to develop the forecast, the length of the duration between the base year and forecast year, and the number of economic recessions between the base year and forecast year. In addition, although data are more limited, studies that forecast a 24-hour volume had a smaller percent error than studies that forecast a peak hour volume (p = 0.04); the reason is that the latter type of forecast requires an additional data element—the peak hour factor—that itself must be forecast. A limitation of this research is that although replication of observed volumes is sought when making a forecast, the observed volumes themselves are not without error; for example, an "observed" traffic count for a given year may in fact be based on a 48-hour count that has been expanded, based on seasonal adjustment factors, to estimate a yearly average traffic volume. The primary recommendation of this study is that forecasts be presented as a range. For example, based on the 39 studies evaluated, for a study that provides forecasts for multiple links, one would expect the median percent error to be approximately 40%. To be clear, detailed analysis of one study suggests it is possible that even a forecast error will not necessarily alter the decision one would make based on the forecast. Accordingly, considering how a change in a traffic forecast volume (by the expected error) influences decisions can help one better understand the need for a given transportation improvement. A secondary recommendation is to clarify how some of these traffic forecasting techniques can be performed, and supporting details for this clarification are given in Appendix A of this report.
Viewing transportation through the lens of current social, economic, and policy aspects, this four-volume reference work explores the topic of transportation across multiple disciplines within the social sciences and related areas, including geography, public policy, business, and economics. The book’s articles, all written by experts in the field, seek to answer such questions as: What has been the legacy, not just economically but politically and socially as well, of President Eisenhower’s modern interstate highway system in America? With that system and the infrastructure that supports it now in a state of decline and decay, what’s the best path for the future at a time of enormous fiscal constraints? Should California politicians plunge ahead with plans for a high-speed rail that every expert says—despite the allure—will go largely unused and will never pay back the massive investment while at this very moment potholes go unfilled all across the state? What path is best for emerging countries to keep pace with dramatic economic growth for their part? What are the social and financial costs of gridlock in our cities? Features: Approximately 675 signed articles authored by prominent scholars are arranged in A-to-Z fashion and conclude with Further Readings and cross references. A Chronology helps readers put individual events into historical context; a Reader’s Guide organizes entries by broad topical or thematic areas; a detailed index helps users quickly locate entries of most immediate interest; and a Resource Guide provides a list of journals, books, and associations and their websites. While articles were written to avoid jargon as much as possible, a Glossary provides quick definitions of technical terms. To ensure full, well-rounded coverage of the field, the General Editor with expertise in urban planning, public policy, and the environment worked alongside a Consulting Editor with a background in Civil Engineering. The index, Reader’s Guide, and cross references combine for thorough search-and-browse capabilities in the electronic edition. Available in both print and electronic formats, Encyclopedia of Transportation is an ideal reference for libraries and those who want to explore the issues that surround transportation in the United States and around the world.
Traffic forecasting techniques--such as extrapolation of previous years' traffic volumes, regional travel demand models, or local trip generation rates--help planners determine needed transportation improvements. Thus, knowing the accuracy of these techniques can help analysts better consider the range of transportation investments for a given location. To determine this accuracy, the forecasts from 39 Virginia studies (published from 1967-2010) were compared to observed volumes for the forecast year. Excluding statewide forecasts, the number of segments in each study ranged from 1 to 240. For each segment, the difference between the forecast volume and the observed volume divided by the observed volume gives a percent error such that a segment with a perfect forecast has an error of 0%. For the 39 studies, the median absolute percent error ranged from 1% to 134%, with an average value of 40%. Slightly more than one-fourth of the error was explained by three factors: the method used to develop the forecast, the length of the duration between the base year and forecast year, and the number of economic recessions between the base year and forecast year. In addition, although data are more limited, studies that forecast a 24-hour volume had a smaller percent error than studies that forecast a peak hour volume (p = 0.04); the reason is that the latter type of forecast requires an additional data element--the peak hour factor--that itself must be forecast. A limitation of this research is that although replication of observed volumes is sought when making a forecast, the observed volumes themselves are not without error; for example, an "observed" traffic count for a given year may in fact be based on a 48-hour count that has been expanded, based on seasonal adjustment factors, to estimate a yearly average traffic volume. The primary recommendation of this study is that forecasts be presented as a range. For example, based on the 39 studies evaluated, for a study that provides forecasts for multiple links, one would expect the median percent error to be approximately 40%. To be clear, detailed analysis of one study suggests it is possible that even a forecast error will not necessarily alter the decision one would make based on the forecast. Accordingly, considering how a change in a traffic forecast volume (by the expected error) influences decisions can help one better understand the need for a given transportation improvement. A secondary recommendation is to clarify how some of these traffic forecasting techniques can be performed, and supporting details for this clarification are given in Appendix A of this report.