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This paper analyzes the pattern of cross-sectional house price appreciation in the Boston metropolitan area from 1982 to 1994. The empirical results are consistent with many of the predictions of a standard urban model in which towns have a fixed set of locational attributes and amenities. In particular, the evidence suggests that house prices in towns with a large share of residents working in the manufacturing sector in 1980 grew less quickly in the ensuing years when aggregate manufacturing employment fell. As baby boomers moved into middle age, house values appreciated faster in towns with a larger initial percentage of middle-aged residents. Housing values rose more slowly in towns that allowed additional construction, and values rose faster in towns closer to Boston. Finally, as fewer families had children who attended public schools statewide, the price premium associated with housing in towns with good schools fell. All of these findings support the view that town amenities and public services are not easily replicated or quickly adaptable to shifts in demand, even within a metropolitan area.
Abstract: This paper analyzes the pattern of cross-sectional house price appreciation in the Boston metropolitan area from 1982 to 1994. The empirical results are consistent with many of the predictions of a standard urban model in which towns have a fixed set of locational attributes and amenities. In particular, the evidence suggests that house prices in towns with a large share of residents working in the manufacturing sector in 1980 grew less quickly in the ensuing years when aggregate manufacturing employment fell. As baby boomers moved into middle age, house values appreciated faster in towns with a larger initial percentage of middle-aged residents. Housing values rose more slowly in towns that allowed additional construction, and values rose faster in towns closer to Boston. Finally, as fewer families had children who attended public schools statewide, the price premium associated with housing in towns with good schools fell. All of these findings support the view that town amenities and public services are not easily replicated or quickly adaptable to shifts in demand, even within a metropolitan area.
House prices and mortgage debt have moved to centre stage in the management of national economies, regional development and neighbourhood change. Describing, analysing and understanding how housing markets work within and across these scales of economy and society has never been more urgent. But much more is known about the macro-scales than the microstructures; and about the economic rather than social drivers of housing market dynamics. This book redresses the balance. It shows that housing markets are social, cultural and psychological – as well as economic – affairs. This multidisciplinary approach is helpful in understanding the economic staples of supply, demand, price and information. It also casts new light on the emotional and political economy of markets.
In this paper, we explore differential changes in house prices across neighborhoods within a city to better understand the nature of house price dynamics across cities. First, we document in detail that there is substantial and systematic heterogeneity in house price dynamics within a city during city wide housing price booms and busts. Second, we propose a new model of within city house price dynamics that is consistent with the empirical facts. We assume that there is a positive neighborhood externality: people like to live close to richer neighbors. We show that there is an equilibrium where households fully segregate based on their income. In response to positive housing demand shocks, the model predicts that the poor neighborhoods on the boundary with the rich ones are the most price elastic. We refer to this process as gentrification. We then empirically test this new mechanism against other mechanisms that could explain within city house price differences. We find strong support for the existence of endogenous gentrification in explaining housing price dynamics within a city. Finally, we show that even after controlling for other important determinants of land prices, the endogenous gentrification mechanism is still important in explaining cross city differences in house price dynamics.
This document has evolved over three years to meet the need for a more comprehensive understanding of how neighborhoods change. The Office of Policy Development and Research at HUD formulated policy alternatives to stem the rising tide of abandoned residential buildings. It showed abandonment as the last stage of a process, not a random or isolated phenomenon. The failure of programs to counteract and halt the decline of neighborhoods has stemmed mainly from an imperfect understanding of this process. There have also been political problems with acting in neighborhoods before the symptoms were painfully evident and from the tendency of program developers to deal with the house, rather than the people who own it, rent it, loan on it, or insure it. Few programs have recognized that those people were part of a total neighborhood rather than occupants of individual buildings. The process of neighborhood change is triggered and fueled by individual, collective and institutional decisions. These are made by a myriad of people-households, bankers, real estate brokers, investors, speculators, public service providers (police, fire, schools, sanitation, etc.) and others. It is a reasonable conclusion that if a concentrated effort is made to affect these decisions then neighborhood decline can be slowed, halted, or in some circumstances, reversed.
The first chapter attempts to shed light on the role of housing price dynamics in mobility decisions, asking whether households respond to prices in a forward- or backward-looking manner, and the extent to which high leverage constrains moving behavior. On a broader level, the study tests whether price dynamics dominate non-market shocks as a force governing household mobility, given the importance of housing as an investment good and saving device. Using a 13 year sample from the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, I find that households are largely backward-looking in both their mobility and consumption decisions, and that non-market shocks play a significant role. Households show little or no response to equity constraints, and do not appear to time the market, despite significant forecastability in housing prices. These conclusions lend support to the notion of prices leading trading volume, but do not support the theoretical work of Stein (1995), which attributes mobility behavior to changes in equity constraints brought about by changes in housing prices. The second chapter uses data from the Retirement History Survey to measure the impact of property tax abatement programs on elderly homeownership decisions. Analysis using a competing risks framework, in which the decision to trade down is treated separately from the decision to end homeownership completely, shows striking differences in the impact of property taxes on each type of failure: for the elderly who choose to trade down, property taxes have a positive effect on the hazard of moving. Alternatively, property taxes have little impact on the tenure decision. Incorporating individual heterogeneity to correct for sample bias, to capture mover-stayer effects, and to account for correlation between property taxes and omitted variables, has little effect on the results. From an "ex post" perspective, the results of the analysis lead to the conclusion that property tax abatement programs have a small impact at best, and may be leading to undesirable redistributional outcomes. The final chapter employs data from the neighborhood clusters sample of the 1989 American Housing Survey and the wealth supplement of the 1989 Panel Study of Income Dynamics to study to distribution of wealth within US residential neighborhoods. Calculations using the Bourguignon decomposable inequality index show that wealth is more unequally distributed than income, and income more than housing wealth, at all levels of aggregation--neighborhoods, metropolitan areas, census regions, and the entire US.