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We develop a factor-augmented vector autoregression model to estimate the effects of changes in U.S. monetary policy and economic policy uncertainty have on the Chinese housing, equity and loan markets. We find that the decline in the U.S. policy rate since the Great Recession has led to a significant increase in Chinese housing investment. One possible reason for this effect is the substantial increase in the inflow of "hot money" into China. The responses of Chinese variables to U.S. shocks at the zero lower bound are different from those responses in normal times. Moreover, increased uncertainty regarding U.S. policy negatively impacts the Chinese real estate markets during normal times but not at the zero lower bound.
The Great Monetary Experiment designed and administered by the Federal Reserve under the Obama Administration unleashed strong irrational forces in global asset markets. The result was a 'monetary plague' which has attacked and corrupted the vital signalling function of financial market prices. This book analyses how quantitative easing caused a sequence of markets to become infected by asset price inflation. It explains how instead of bringing about a quick return to prosperity from the Great Recession, the monetary experiment failed in its basic purpose. Bringing about economic debilitation, major financial speculation, waves of mal-investment in particular areas, and a colossal boom in the private equity industry, the experiment instead produced monetary disorder. Brendan Brown puts the monetary experiment into a global and historical context, examining in particular Japanese 'folklore of deflation' and the Federal Reserve's first experiment of quantitative easing in the mid-1930s. The author couples analysis from the Austrian school of monetary economics and Chicago monetarism with insights from behavioral finance, and concludes with major proposals for the present and the future, including ideas for monetary reform in the United States, and suggestions for how investors can survive the current market 'plague'.
The expert guide to understanding and surviving monetary failure What's Wrong with Money? explores how and why money is valued and the warning signs that point to its eventual collapse. Author Michael Ashton is widely regarded as a premier expert on inflation, and in this book, he illustrates how the erosion of trust in central banks is putting us at high risk of both near- and long-term inflation—and a potentially very serious disruption. It's not about a conspiracy surrounding inflation reporting; it's about the tentative agreement we all carry that lends money its value. This value isn't necessarily inherent; while some currency is backed by stored value, others are not. This book walks you through the history of currency and details the ways in which it can fall apart. You'll learn how to invest in any type of collapse scenario, and you'll gain expert insight into the warning signs that signal a coming shock to the financial system. Track the history of monetary value Consider how money could die slowly or quickly Learn investment strategies for both slow and quick scenarios Examine potential causes of erosion of trust in the monetary system, and the chilling results of such erosion An economic system without money is incredibly inefficient, but our shared agreement in monetary value has historically never been enough. What's Wrong with Money? shows you the lessons from the past and the reality of the present and helps you make plans for the future of money.
An accessible and thorough review of the international financial markets Life in the Financial Markets—How They Really Work And Why They Matter To You offers the financial services professional, and anyone interested in knowing more about the profession, an entertaining and comprehensive analysis of the financial markets and the financial services industry. Written by Daniel Lacalle—a noted portfolio manager with EcoFin and well-known media personality—the book goes beyond a simple summary and offers solid advice on the future of the global financial markets. This great resource also includes a review of effective strategies and forecasts the trends that represent potential opportunities for investors. The book reviews the recent history of the financial crisis and includes information on hot topics such as derivatives and high frequency trading. An in-depth section on investment banking is written from the perspective of a successful practitioner and provides clarity on several complex and overly politicized elements of the banking system. The author gives an expert's perspective on the debt markets, monetary policies, and quantitative easing, and helps explain the various issues surrounding sovereign debt, the Euro crisis, and austerity versus growth policies. Comprehensive in scope, this resource also offers an analysis of investment styles, from hedge funds to "long only" investments, as well as an in-depth look at corporate communication and its impact on markets and investments. Offers an engaging and comprehensive analysis of the financial services industry Includes information on the workings of the global financial system following the economic crisis Contains a review of complex banking systems Analyzes the various investment styles and answers the most common questions pertaining to investing
The shocking expose which links the international debt crisis with capital flight and white collar crime.
The New York Times bestseller from business journalist Christopher Leonard infiltrates one of America’s most mysterious institutions—the Federal Reserve—to show how its policies spearheaded by Chairman Jerome Powell over the past ten years have accelerated income inequality and put our country’s economic stability at risk. If you asked most people what forces led to today’s unprecedented income inequality and financial crashes, no one would say the Federal Reserve. For most of its history, the Fed has enjoyed the fawning adoration of the press. When the economy grew, it was credited to the Fed. When the economy imploded in 2008, the Fed got credit for rescuing us. But here, for the first time, is the inside story of how the Fed has reshaped the American economy for the worse. It all started on November 3, 2010, when the Fed began a radical intervention called quantitative easing. In just a few short years, the Fed more than quadrupled the money supply with one goal: to encourage banks and other investors to extend more risky debt. Leaders at the Fed knew that they were undertaking a bold experiment that would produce few real jobs, with long-term risks that were hard to measure. But the Fed proceeded anyway…and then found itself trapped. Once it printed all that money, there was no way to withdraw it from circulation. The Fed tried several times, only to see the market start to crash, at which point the Fed turned the money spigot back on. That’s what it did when COVID hit, printing 300 years’ worth of money in a few short months. Which brings us to now: Ten years on, the gap between the rich and poor has grown dramatically, inflation is raging, and the stock market is driven by boom, busts, and bailouts. Middle-class Americans seem stuck in a stage of permanent stagnation, with wage gains wiped out by high prices even as they remain buried under credit card debt, car loan debt, and student debt. Meanwhile, the “too big to fail” banks remain bigger and more powerful than ever while the richest Americans enjoy the gains of a hyper-charged financial system. The Lords of Easy Money “skillfully” (The Wall Street Journal) tells the “fascinating” (The New York Times) tale of how quantitative easing is imperiling the American economy through the story of the one man who tried to warn us. This is the first inside story of how we really got here—and why our economy rests on such unstable ground.
In this searing exposéformer Wall Street insider Nomi Prins shows how the 2007-2008 financial crisis turbo-boosted the influence of central bankers and triggered a massive shift in the world order. Central banks and international institutions like the IMF have overstepped their traditional mandates by directing the flow of epic sums of fabricated money without any checks or balances. Meanwhile, the open door between private and central banking has ensured endless opportunities for market manipulation and asset bubbles -- with government support. Through on-the-ground reporting, Prins reveals how five regions and their central banks reshaped economics and geopolitics. She discloses how Mexico navigated its relationship with the US while striving for independence and how Brazil led the BRICS countries to challenge the US dollar's hegemony. She explains how China's retaliation against the Fed's supremacy is aiding its ongoing ascent as a global superpower and how Japan is negotiating the power shift from the West to the East. And she illustrates how the European response to the financial crisis fueled instability that manifests itself in everything from rising populism to the shocking Brexit vote. Packed with tantalizing details about the elite players orchestrating the world economy -- from Janet Yellen and Mario Draghi to Ben Bernanke and Christine Lagarde -- Collusion takes the reader inside the most discreet conversations at exclusive retreats like Jackson Hole and Davos. A work of meticulous reporting and bracing analysis, Collusion will change the way we understand the new world of international finance.
The quantity of reserves in the U.S. banking system has risen dramatically since Sept. 2008. This pattern may indicate that the Federal Reserve¿s (FR) liquidity facilities have been ineffective in promoting the flow of credit to firms and households. Others have argued that the high level of reserves will be inflationary. This report explains why banks are currently holding so many reserves. The examples show how the quantity of bank reserves is determined by the size of the FR¿s policy initiatives and in no way reflects the initiatives¿ effects on bank lending. A large increase in bank reserves need not be inflationary, because the payment of interest on reserves allows the FR to adjust short-term interest rates independently of the level of reserves. Illus..
The experience of the Great Recession and its aftermath revealed that a lower bound on interest rates can be a serious obstacle for fighting recessions. However, the zero lower bound is not a law of nature; it is a policy choice. The central message of this paper is that with readily available tools a central bank can enable deep negative rates whenever needed—thus maintaining the power of monetary policy in the future to end recessions within a short time. This paper demonstrates that a subset of these tools can have a big effect in enabling deep negative rates with administratively small actions on the part of the central bank. To that end, we (i) survey approaches to enable deep negative rates discussed in the literature and present new approaches; (ii) establish how a subset of these approaches allows enabling negative rates while remaining at a minimum distance from the current paper currency policy and minimizing the political costs; (iii) discuss why standard transmission mechanisms from interest rates to aggregate demand are likely to remain unchanged in deep negative rate territory; and (iv) present communication tools that central banks can use both now and in the event to facilitate broader political acceptance of negative interest rate policy at the onset of the next serious recession.
The first book-length work on market monetarism, written by its leading scholar. Is it possible that the consensus around what caused the 2008 Great Recession is almost entirely wrong? It’s happened before. Just as Milton Friedman and Anna Schwartz led the economics community in the 1960s to reevaluate its view of what caused the Great Depression, the same may be happening now to our understanding of the first economic crisis of the 21st century. Foregoing the usual relitigating of problems such as housing markets and banking crises, renowned monetary economist Scott Sumner argues that the Great Recession came down to one thing: nominal GDP, the sum of all nominal spending in the economy, which the Federal Reserve erred in allowing to plummet. The Money Illusion is an end-to-end case for this school of thought, known as market monetarism, written by its leading voice in economics. Based almost entirely on standard macroeconomic concepts, this highly accessible text lays the groundwork for a simple yet fundamentally radical understanding of how monetary policy can work best: providing a stable environment for a market economy to flourish.