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This paper proposes a hidden state Markov model (HMM) that incorporates workers’ unobserved labor market attachment into the analysis of labor market dynamics. Unlike previous literature, which typically assumes that a worker’s observed labor force status follows a first-order Markov process, the proposed HMM allows workers with the same labor force status to have different history-dependent transition probabilities. I show that the estimated HMM generates labor market transition probabilities that match those observed in the data, while the first-order Markov model (FOM) and its many-state extensions cannot. Even compared with the extended FOM, the HMM improves the fit of the empirical transition probabilities by a factor of 30. I apply the HMM to (1) calculate the long-run consequences of separation from stable employment, (2) study evolutions of employment stability across different demographic groups over the past several decades, (3) compare the dynamics of labor market flows during the Great Recession to those during the 1981 recession, and (4) highlight the importance of looking beyond distributions of current labor force status.
What factors affect the ways individuals participate in labor markets?New Developments and Research on Labor Markets (volume 4B) proposes answers to this and other questions on important topics of public policy. Leading labor economists demonstrate how better data and advanced experiments help them apply economic theory, yielding sharper analyses and conclusions. The combinations of these improved empirical findings with new models enable the authors of these chapters to reveal how labor economists are developing new and innovative ways to measure key parameters and test important hypotheses. - Concentrates on empirical research in specific labor markets, including those defined by age, gender, and race - Reveals how questions and answers about these markets have changed and how models measure them - Documents how conceptual models and empirical work explain important practical issues
A compendium of studies drawn from an international conference, this volume includes the newest and most substantive work on event history analysis. Researchers at four institutions convened, shared models of analysis, and collected their findings for the first time. The studies included represent work done in the following organizations: The Max Planck Institute in West Germany; The U.S. Social Science Research Council's Committee on Comparative Stratification; The Special Research Unit of the Deutsche Forschungsgemeinschaft; and MASO, and informal German working group on mathematical sociology. This book is one of twelve in the University of Wisconsin Press's Life Course Studies series, arranged by the series editors David L. Featherman and David I. Kertzer.
Dieses Buch thematisiert verschiedene Aspekte der Lohndynamik in Deutschland. Während der Hauptteil des Buches sich mit dem Lohnwachstum und der Aufstiegsmobilität von Geringverdienern beschäftigt, analysiert ein kleinerer Teil die Entwicklung der Lohneffekte der Tarifbindung für alle Beschäftigten. Unter anderem wird gezeigt, dass die Aufstiegsmobilität von Geringverdienern in besser bezahlte Jobs kein lediglich temporäres Phänomen ist, sondern für diese Beschäftigten zu längerfristig höheren Lohnniveaus führen kann. Das Lohnwachstum von Geringverdienern hängt allerdings von anderen betrieblichen Einflussfaktoren ab als das Lohnwachstum von Besserverdienern. Auch Persönlichkeitsmerkmale wie zum Beispiel die individuelle Kontrollüberzeugung beeinflussen die Aufstiegsmobilität von Geringverdienern. Weiterhin zeigen die Analysen, dass trotz des kontinuierlichen Rückgangs des gewerkschaftlichen Organisationsgrads und der Tarifbindung im letzten Jahrzehnt weiterhin eine - wenn auch geringe - positive Lohnprämie der Tarifbindung existiert.
In the 1990s, 'protection', 'import substitution' and 'intervention' have become dirty words, part of the 'leyenda negra' of Latin America development in the postwar period. This book attempts a fresh look at the controversial years between the end of the Second World War and the point when, at varying dates in different countries, a discontinuity occurs in which the postwar 'style of development' ceased to play a central role in the economic evolution of the region. The analysis is based on seven case studies covering eleven countries.
There is a striking scarcity of work conducted on rural labour markets in the developing world, particularly in Africa. This book aims to fill this gap by bringing together a group of contributors who boast substantial field experience researching rural wage employment in various developing countries. It provides critical perspectives on mainstream approaches to rural/agrarian development, and analysis of agrarian change and rural transformations from a long-term perspective. This book challenges the notion that rural areas in low- and middle-income countries are dominated by self-employment. It purports that this conventional view is largely due to the application of conceptual frameworks and statistical conventions that are ill-equipped to capture labour market participation. The contributions in this book offer a variety of methodological lessons for the study of rural labour markets, focusing in particular on the use of mixed methods in micro-level field research, and more emphasis on capturing occupation multiplicity. The emphasis on context, history, and specific configurations of power relations affecting rural labour market outcomes are key and reoccurring features of this book. This analysis will help readers think about policy options to improve the quantity and quality of rural wage employment, their impact on the poorest rural people, and their political feasibility in each context.
Artificial Intelligence (AI) is rapidly advancing in areas such as pattern detection, classification, and prediction, which were long thought to be the exclusive realm of humans. These developments are triggering excitement about the potential of AI but are also raising concerns about possible risks. The versatility of AI and its speed of development have led to a wide range of applications, both in personal and professional environments. The most dramatic effects are, however, in the world of work. AI is impacting job loss and employability and causing a transformation of tasks in a range of occupations and sectors. It is also affecting other aspects of the labor market, such as recruitment, performance monitoring, and dismissal. As such, the development and implementation of AI are raising concerns about the future of work, both in terms of its mere existence and quality, with critical implications for the social fabric as well as future development prospects.
'This volume is a welcome and timely contribution to a topic of enduring importance. The global consequences of recent food price crises underscore the need to examine food security issues from diverse perspectives. This volume meets that need, featuring accessible yet cutting-edge analyses of food security by leading experts in fields as diverse as trade, nutrition, public health, production, political economy, and behavioral economics. It will be of interest to a wide range of scholars and practitioners.' --Steven Block, Tufts University, US. 'This excellent volume offers a compact but wide-ranging survey of recent research on important changes in global food markets. Its 20 chapters accurately capture important areas of scholarly agreement as well as on-going debates among economists studying agriculture and nutrition, with several provocative original contributions from other fields. The book draws particularly on the authors' long experience in Asia, offering widely-applicable insights for scholars and policy analysts seeking to understand the past, present and future of food around the world.' --William A. Masters, Tufts University, US. The global population is forecasted to reach 9.4 billion by 2050, with much of this increase concentrated in developing regions and cities. Ensuring adequate food and nourishment to this large population is a pressing economic, moral and even security challenge and requires research (and action) from a multi-disciplinary perspective. This book provides the first such integrated approach to tackling this problem by addressing the multiplicity of challenges posed by rising global population, diet diversification and urbanization in developing countries and climate change. It examines key topics such as: the impact of prosperity on food demand, the role of international trade in addressing food insecurity, the challenge posed by greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture and land degradation, the implication on labor markets of severe under-nutrition, viability of small scale farms, strategies to augment food availability. The Handbook on Food would be a welcome supplementary text for courses on development economics, particularly those concentrating on agricultural development, climate change and food availability, as well as nutrition.
This book brings together recent work analysing the labour market behaviour of agents, particularly with regard to unemployment, job search, and labour supply. It considers the economic and demographic factors involved, and in particular the responsiveness of labour market behaviour to changes in these factors. There has been considerable recent progress in the design of appropriate econometric techniques and models with which to confront labour market theories with available data. The contributions to this volume represent important extensions or applications by some of the foremost researchers in the field, provide tests of the available theories, and draw the consequent conclusions for policy. Subjects covered include unemployment, the duration of unemployment, the effects of insurance, benefits and taxation, youth unemployment, models of labour supply, and female participation. The contributors come from the USA, Canada, UK, France, Sweden, and Denmark.