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Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.
Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.
Abstract: The economies of the six Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries are heavily reliant on oil. Greater economic diversification would reduce their exposure to volatility and uncertainty in the global oil market, help create jobs in the private sector, increase productivity and sustainable growth, and help create the non-oil economy that will be needed in the future when oil revenues start to dwindle. The GCC countries have followed many of the standard policies that are usually thought to promote more diversified economies, including reforms to improve the business climate, the development of domestic infrastructure, financial deepening, and improvements in education. Nevertheless, success to date has been limited. This paper argues that increased diversification will require realigning incentives for firms and workers in the economies—fixing these incentives is the “missing link” in the GCC countries’ diversification strategies. At present, producing non-tradables is less risky and more profitable for firms as they can benefit from the easy availability of low-wage foreign labor and the rapid growth in government spending, while the continued availability of high-paying and secure public sector jobs discourages nationals from pursuing entrepreneurship and private sector employment. Measures to begin to address these incentive issues could include limiting and reorienting government spending, strengthening private sector competition, providing guarantees and financial support for those firms engaged in export activity, and implementing labor market reforms to make nationals more competitive for private sector employment.
Departmental papers are usually focused on a specific economic topic, country, or region. They are prepared in a timely way to support the outreach needs of the IMF’s area and functional departments.
Global economic activity is gaining momentum. Global growth is forecast at 3.6 percent this year, and 3.7 percent in 2018, compared to 3.2 percent in 2016. Risks around this forecast are broadly balanced in the near term, but are skewed to the downside over the medium term. The more positive global growth environment should support somewhat stronger oil demand. With inflation in advanced countries remaining subdued, monetary policy is expected to remain accommodative. GCC countries are continuing to adjust to lower oil prices. Substantial fiscal consolidation has taken place in most countries, mainly focused on expenditure reduction. This is necessary, but it has weakened non-oil growth. With the pace of fiscal consolidation set to slow, non-oil growth is expected to increase to 2.6 percent this year, from 1.8 percent last year. However, because of lower oil output, overall real GDP growth is projected to slow to 0.5 percent in 2017 from 2.2 percent in 2016. Growth prospects in the medium-term remain subdued amid relatively low oil prices and geopolitical risks. Policymakers have made a strong start in adjusting fiscal policy. While the needed pace of fiscal adjustment varies across countries depending on the fiscal space available, in general countries should continue to focus on recurrent expenditure rationalization, further energy price reforms, increased non-oil revenues, and improved efficiency of capital spending. Fiscal consolidation should be accompanied by a further improvement in fiscal frameworks and institutions. The direction of fiscal policy in the GCC is broadly consistent with these recommendations. Policies should continue to be geared toward managing evolving liquidity situations in the banking system and supporting the private sector’s access to funding. While countries have made progress in enhancing their financial policy frameworks, strengthening liquidity forecasting and developing liquidity management instruments will help banks adjust to a tighter liquidity environment. Banks generally remain profitable, well capitalized, and liquid, but with growth expected to remain relatively weak, the monitoring of financial sector vulnerabilities should continue to be enhanced. Diversification and private sector development will be needed to offset lower government spending and ensure stronger, sustainable, and inclusive growth. This will require stepped-up reforms to improve the business climate and reduce the role of the public sector in the economy through privatization and PPPs. Reforms are needed to increase the incentives for nationals to work in the private sector and for private sector firms to hire them. Increasing female participation in the labor market and employment would benefit productivity and growth across the region. Where fiscal space is available, fiscal policy can be used to support the structural reforms needed to boost private sector growth and employment.
Many aspects of the global economic crisis remain unclear, especially the ability of the United States (US) and the European Union (EU) to reduce their operating deficits and debt. In particular, one major concern for those focused on climate change is the extent to which the financial crisis has impacted the United States’ and EU’s ability and willingness to invest in and help develop renewable energy technology around the world. This is a serious concern since there is now a consensus that climate change is human-induced. Equally important, there is a need to reduce the non-climate impacts of energy generation, provide employment, and reduce global poverty. According to the International Monetary Fund for the period 2000–2009, fiscal dependency in the majority of GCC nations increased from the previous decade whereby hydrocarbons account for almost 90 percent of revenues and 80 percent of exports (hydrocarbon exports as a share of total exports). This increase in dependency on hydrocarbons comes from the increase in oil prices over the past decade. The exception to this trend in the GCC is the UAE where hydrocarbons have fallen to about 60 percent of total exports and their share in revenue has also fallen. While renewable energy to date in GCC nations is not large in terms of total installed capacity, very important plans and projects are now being put in to place. While each nation has specific circumstances, as a whole, the GCC has been able to adequately cope with the negative effects of the financial crisis with an expected 2012 growth rate of six percent for the region. The UAE holds more than seven percent of the world’s total oil and three percent of proven natural gas reserves and is ranked the seventh in the world in both resources; most of the oil (94 percent) is in Abu Dhabi. Notwithstanding these oil and gas reserves, the UAE aims to produce seven percent of its electricity from renewables by 2020. Masdar, Abu Dhabi’s government-owned renewable energy firm, has the ambitious goal of making Abu Dhabi the preeminent source of renewable energy knowledge, development, implementation and the world’s benchmark for sustainable development.
Relations between the European Union (EU) and the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) are at a crossroads. After the derailment of the negotiations for the Free Trade Agreement (FTA) in 2008, the cooperation between the two regional blocs has remained low-key in a number of different areas, while the unprecedented changes that have taken place in North Africa and the Middle East, the common neighbourhood of the EU and the GCC, have not led to a renewed, structured cooperation on foreign and security policy issues. This volume addresses the shortcomings and potential of EU-GCC relations by taking stock of their past evolution and by advancing policy recommendations as to how to revamp this strategic cooperation. In this light, it highlights the areas where greater room for manoeuvre exists in order to enhance EU-GCC relations, discusses the instruments available and sheds light on the features of the regional and international context that are likely to significantly influence the new phase in the mutual relation between the two blocs. The book is the result of the research conducted in the framework of the project ‘Sharaka – Enhancing Understanding and Cooperation in EU-GCC Relations’ co-funded by the European Commission.
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
This volume represents a comprehensive state-of-the-art picture of family business and entrepreneurship issues in countries belonging to the Gulf Cooperation Council. It provides major theoretical and empirical evidence which depicts the current processes in each GCC country including problems, faced by family business owners and entrepreneurs, such as succession, financial constraints, and conflicts. The chapters offer recommendations to policy makers on how to improve the general business environment and encourage potential investors, researchers, academicians, and professionals to be more involved in the region. The book is an outcome of a long-lasting endeavor and includes contributions from highly reputed authors and experts from the region and abroad.
Filling a void in academic and policy-relevant literature on the topic of the green economy in the Arabian Gulf, this edited volume provides a multidisciplinary analysis of the key themes and challenges relating to the green economy in the region, including in the energy and water sectors and the urban environment, as well as with respect to cross-cutting issues, such as labour, intellectual property and South-South cooperation. Over the course of the book, academics and practitioners from various fields demonstrate why transitioning into a ‘green economy’ – a future economy based on environmental sustainability, social equity and improved well-being – is not an option but a necessity for the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) States. Through chapters covering key economic sectors and cross-cutting issues, the book examines the GCC states’ quest to align their economies and economic development with the imperatives of environmental sustainability and social welfare, and proposes a way forward, based on lessons learned from experiences in the region and beyond. This volume will be of great relevance to scholars and policy makers with an interest in environmental economics and policy.