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We study structural transformation and change in the Vietnamese economy using two Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs), one for the year 2000 and a recently compiled SAM for the year 2012. This period is of particular interest as it features an important shift in terms of more economic integration with the global economy. Several analytical approaches are taken, including comparisons and decomposition of multipliers and a decomposition of structural change. We observe significant changes in economic structure, and the results suggest that the Vietnamese economy has become internally more integrated over the period 2000-12, while moving from primary production (agriculture) towards more value adding manufacturing activities. This transformation has been broad-based and in large measure driven by external demand. We conclude that it will be challenging to sustain growth without bold moves in technological upgrading and measures geared towards even stronger internal economic integration.
Provides in-depth evaluation of the development of rural life in Viet Nam over the past decade, combining a unique primary source of time-series panel data with the best micro-econometric analytical tools available.
This work provides in-depth evaluation of the development of rural life in Viet Nam over the past decade, combining a unique primary source of time-series panel data with the best micro-econometric analytical tools available
Vietnam's economy has been fundamentally changed by the policy reforms implemented in the 1980s to provide an environment that is more conducive for economic growth and social stabilization. The policy reforms have had a tremendous impact on economic activities and on all aspects of social life. The economy is presently moving from a centrally planned system largely based on public ownership to a market-oriented and mixed economy. Social structures and values have changed, and legal, institutional, and administrative systems are gradually changing as well. The reform process gives rise to exciting challenges and opportunities for development. Based largely on Vietnamese sources of data and information, this book presents an analysis of the main features of economic policy reforms in Vietnam, their socioeconomic impact, and several major theoretical and practical problems Vietnam faces on its path to development.
The demand for workforce skills is changing in Vietnam’s dynamic economy. In addition to job-specific skills, Vietnamese employers value cognitive skills, like problem solving, and behavioral skills, like team work. This book presents an agenda of change for Vietnam’s education system to prepare workers to succeed in Vietnam’s modernizing economy.
This study’s objective is to examine the factors that have driven structural transformation (ST) in the Southeast Asian (SEA) economies and the policies supporting the process. It sets the stage by evaluating the ST in each country, quantifying the contribution of “within sector” and “structural change” to overall productivity growth and estimating the turning points (TPs) to gauge the prospects of income convergence. Eight SEA countries, undergoing a steady rate of economic growth —Cambodia, Lao PDR, Myanmar, Viet Nam, Philippines, Malaysia, Indonesia, and Thailand (CLMVPMIT) are chosen for analysis. We find their progress on ST to be consistent with the theory and historical patterns experienced in several developed and developing countries. However, progress is diverse across these countries and lags behind developed countries, indicating that labor is not exiting agriculture as fast as agriculture’s share of value added has been declining. The ST has decreased from 49 percent in Thailand to almost 3 percent each in Cambodia and Malaysia during 1991 to 2016. Further, the contribution of within change to productivity, which was pivotal during the 1990s in each country is rather subdued during the 2000s, thereby giving comparative primacy to structural change. A relatively higher—57 to 80 percent—contribution of structural change in Cambodia and Lao PDR, together with productivity growth, may be explained by increasing migration and trade in nonagriculture products. We also find that while Lao PDR, Thailand, and Indonesia have reached their TPs, other nations, especially the poorer ones such as Viet Nam, Myanmar, and Philippines are predicted to take at least a decade towards this goal. Empirical analysis suggests ST in CLMVPMIT is positively driven by agricultural productivity, terms of trade, and public investments in infrastructure, with little role for rural to urban migration and market integration. Large inter-sectoral productivity differentials across SEA countries, other than in Cambodia and Malaysia, necessitates to accelerate agricultural disproportionate share of the labor force in agriculture through higher productivity.
Thirty years of Ä?ổi Má»›i (economic renovation) reforms have catapulted Vietnam from the ranks of the world’s poorest countries to one of its great development success stories. Critical ingredients have been visionary leaders, a sense of shared societal purpose, and a focus on the future. Starting in the late 1980s, these elements were successfully fused with the embrace of markets and the global economy. Economic growth since then has been rapid, stable, and inclusive, translating into strong welfare gains for the vast majority of the population. But three decades of success from reforms raises expectations for the future, as aptly captured in the Vietnamese constitution, which sets the goal of “a prosperous people and a strong, democratic, equitable, and civilized country.†? There is a firm aspiration that by 2035, Vietnam will be a modern and industrialized nation moving toward becoming a prosperous, creative, equitable, and democratic society. The Vietnam 2035 report, a joint undertaking of the Government of Vietnam and the World Bank Group, seeks to better comprehend the challenges and opportunities that lie ahead. It shows that the country’s aspirations and the supporting policy and institutional agenda stand on three pillars: balancing economic prosperity with environmental sustainability; promoting equity and social inclusion to develop a harmonious middle- class society; and enhancing the capacity and accountability of the state to establish a rule of law state and a democratic society. Vietnam 2035 further argues that the rapid growth needed to achieve the bold aspirations will be sustained only if it stands on faster productivity growth and reflects the costs of environmental degradation. Productivity growth, in turn, will benefit from measures to enhance the competitiveness of domestic enterprises, scale up the benefits of urban agglomeration, and build national technological and innovative capacity. Maintaining the record on equity and social inclusion will require lifting marginalized groups and delivering services to an aging and urbanizing middle-class society. And to fulfill the country’s aspirations, the institutions of governance will need to become modern, transparent, and fully rooted in the rule of law.
With the adoption of new market-oriented policies, Vietnam has transformed itself from one of the world's poorest countries during the 1980s, into an economy with one of the highest growth rates during the 1990s. Using macroeconomic and household survey data, this publication examines a range of issues including: the causes of Vietnam's economic growth and future prospects; the impact on household welfare and poverty levels, school enrolment, child health and other socioeconomic outcomes; and the nature of poverty in Vietnam and the effectiveness of government policies for poverty reduction, drawing lessons for Vietnam and for other low-income developing countries.
During the past decade, Vietnam has been one of the fastest growing economies in the world, but employment growth has been much slower. The large gap between GDP and employment growth implies real labor productivity growth, so greater per capita income. However, this enlarging gap, together with emerging unemployment and underemployment problems, also indicates limited benefits to employment from output expansion, an issue of concern to Vietnamese policymakers. This dissertation research addresses the relationship between GDP growth and employment growth. The central question is why labor demand in Vietnam grows so much more slowly than GDP. Three fundamental causes proposed to explain slow employment growth are: 1) structural transformation; 2) labor-saving technological progress; and 3) institutional biases due to minimum wage and state investment policies. A decomposition of labor demand growth shows that structural transformation and state investment bias can at most explain 40% of the difference between GDP and employment growth, while the remaining 60% is due to biased technological change and minimum wage bias. Further analysis breaks apart these effects due to changing sectoral output structures and declining labor-output ratios, respectively. Productivity growth prevailed in Vietnam over the past decade, but we need to allow for biased technological change to find it. Biased technological progress is more important than all other factors in affecting labor demand growth. For the entire economy, the Leontief production function best fits the data, and estimates suggest a 5% increase in labor productivity and a 1% increase in capital productivity per year during 2000-2009. The traditional agricultural sector also experienced 3% annual growth of labor productivity accelerating the structural transformation process. State investment bias has slowed labor demand growth by 0.51% per year. Privatization is beneficial to labor demand growth as a result of higher labor intensity in non-state firms relative to state owned enterprises, and robust growth of the domestic private sector. Minimum wage bias is not an important contributing factor, due to low elasticities of factor substitution and weak links between minimum and market wages. Tighter regulation of the minimum wage policy will only strongly affect labor demand in the formal agricultural and manufacturing sectors. The problem of stagnant employment is shared in other Asian countries. Labor demand growth decomposition for China, Hong Kong, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, and Vietnam for 1986-2008 shows that biased technological progress was responsible for more than 70% of slow employment growth, while structural transformation can only explain up to 30% of the gap between GDP and employment growth. Capital accumulation has been the dominant factor driving Asian economic growth at the early stages of the development, but as development proceeds, technological progress, especially the labor saving type, eventually plays a more important role.