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The cryosphere and its interactions with other components of the climate system are considered to be major influences on global climate change through the Cenozoic and into the future. However, fundamental dynamics and secondary feedbacks that drive long-term ice sheet variability on Greenland remain poorly understood. Here, a numerical climate-ice sheet modeling study is conducted with the aim of reconstructing most likely locations, timing and variability of continental ice in the mid to late Pliocene and the transition into the Pleistocene. Simulations using the GENESIS v3 General Circulation Model coupled to the Penn State Ice Sheet-Shelf Model are compared with a range of independent numerical ice sheet model simulations under Pliocene boundary conditions and validated against available proxy reconstructions. This study aims at investigating the sensitivity of an ice-free and glaciated Greenland to changes in climate forcings, and the modulation of those forcings through internal feedbacks with focus on the dynamical thresholds involved in the growth and retreat of continental ice on Greenland. ^ Orbital changes of latitudinal and seasonal solar radiation, in combination with prevalent atmospheric pCO2 levels, are found to pace the timing of the cryospheric response. Internal feedbacks invoked though local surface characteristics on Greenland in concert with far field changes in Arctic sea surface temperature and sea ice conditions control the energy and moisture budget on Greenland with consequences for its mass balance. In the Pliocene, inception of Greenland ice is inhibited during interglacials and ice volume is limited even when orbits are favorable for ice sheet growth. During Pliocene warmth, a present-day Greenland Ice Sheet cannot be maintained and ice was most likely restricted to the highest elevations in the East and South, contributing around 6m of equivalent sea level rise. This assessment of the sensitivity and survivability of Greenland Ice Sheet in a warmer-than-modern world implies the potential for a long-term commitment to future sea level rise from a smaller Greenland Ice Sheet.
There is little dispute within the scientific community that humans are changing Earth's climate on a decadal to century time-scale. By the end of this century, without a reduction in emissions, atmospheric CO2 is projected to increase to levels that Earth has not experienced for more than 30 million years. As greenhouse gas emissions propel Earth toward a warmer climate state, an improved understanding of climate dynamics in warm environments is needed to inform public policy decisions. In Understanding Earth's Deep Past, the National Research Council reports that rocks and sediments that are millions of years old hold clues to how the Earth's future climate would respond in an environment with high levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases. Understanding Earth's Deep Past provides an assessment of both the demonstrated and underdeveloped potential of the deep-time geologic record to inform us about the dynamics of the global climate system. The report describes past climate changes, and discusses potential impacts of high levels of atmospheric greenhouse gases on regional climates, water resources, marine and terrestrial ecosystems, and the cycling of life-sustaining elements. While revealing gaps in scientific knowledge of past climate states, the report highlights a range of high priority research issues with potential for major advances in the scientific understanding of climate processes. This proposed integrated, deep-time climate research program would study how climate responded over Earth's different climate states, examine how climate responds to increased atmospheric carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases, and clarify the processes that lead to anomalously warm polar and tropical regions and the impact on marine and terrestrial life. In addition to outlining a research agenda, Understanding Earth's Deep Past proposes an implementation strategy that will be an invaluable resource to decision-makers in the field, as well as the research community, advocacy organizations, government agencies, and college professors and students.
Surveys atmospheric, oceanic and cryospheric processes, present and past conditions, and changes in polar environments.
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The co-variability of glacier ice discharges and climate variability is also examined by using Polar MM5 V1 modeled summer temperature and April-September Positive Degree Day (PDD) anomalies. Ice discharges from south Greenland glaciers are found to be sensitive to temperature change. Based on sensitivities of ice discharge to melt index anomalies, time series of total ice discharge from 28 major glaciers since 1958 are modeled. The global sea level rise contribution from Greenland ice sheet during past 50 years is estimated be ∼0.6 mm yr-1 in average.
Experts in climate and water sciences from Canada, the United States, Brazil, Denmark, Germany, Belgium, France, Serbia, and other European countries and the UNESCO gathered at the Serbian Academy of Sciences and Arts on the occasion of the 130th birthday anniversary of the geophysicist Milutin Milankovitch. The collection of their presentations is opened by an update on the climate situation after the Fourth Assessment Report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. Further topics include various issues of paleoclimatology, in particular as it helps reduce uncertainties from which prospects for climate change suffer; ecohydrology and climate change at the watershed scale; and regional climate models, which are discussed in terms of both their improved modeling and their use in studies of a polynya in the Antarctica and expected changes in the Mediterranean region.