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This volume identifies the economic and social factors underlying the perpetuation of civil wars, exploring as well the economic incentives and disencentives available to international actors seeking to restore peace to war-torn societies. The authors consider the economic rationality of conflict for beligerents, the economic strategies that elites use to sustain their positions, and in what situations elites find war to be more profitable than peace.
The duration of large-scale violent civil conflict increases substantially if the society is composed of a few large ethnic groups, if there is extensive forest cover, and if the conflict has commenced since 1980. None of these factors affect the initiation of conflict. And neither the duration nor the initiation of conflict is affected by initial inequality or political repression.
Of the 27 major armed conflicts that occurred in 1999, all but two took place within national boundaries. As an impediment to development, internal rebellion especially hurts the world's poorest countries. What motivates civil war? Greed or grievance?
This book argues that political and economic inequalities following group lines generate grievances that in turn can motivate civil war. Lars-Erik Cederman, Kristian Skrede Gleditsch, and Halvard Buhaug offer a theoretical approach that highlights ethnonationalism and how the relationship between group identities and inequalities are fundamental for successful mobilization to resort to violence. Although previous research highlighted grievances as a key motivation for political violence, contemporary research on civil war has largely dismissed grievances as irrelevant, emphasizing instead the role of opportunities. This book shows that the alleged non-results for grievances in previous research stemmed primarily from atheoretical measures, typically based on individual data. The authors develop new indicators of political and economic exclusion at the group level, and show that these exert strong effects on the risk of civil war. They provide new analyses of the effects of transnational ethnic links and the duration of civil wars, and extended case discussions illustrating causal mechanisms.
Globalization, suggest the authors of this collection, is creating new opportunities - some legal, some illicit - for armed factions to pursue their agendas in civil war. Within this context, they analyze the key dynamics of war economies and the challenges posed for conflict resolution and sustainable peace. Thematic chapters consider key issues in the political economy of internal wars, as well as how differing types of resource dependency influence the scope, character, and duration of conflicts. Case studies of Burma, Colombia, Kosovo, Papua New Guinea, and Sri Lanka illustrate a range of ways in which belligerents make use of global markets and the transnational flow of resources. An underlying theme is the opportunities available to the international community to alter the economic incentive structure that inadvertently supports armed conflict.
By analytically decoupling war and violence, this book explores the causes and dynamics of violence in civil war. Against the prevailing view that such violence is an instance of impenetrable madness, the book demonstrates that there is logic to it and that it has much less to do with collective emotions, ideologies, and cultures than currently believed. Kalyvas specifies a novel theory of selective violence: it is jointly produced by political actors seeking information and individual civilians trying to avoid the worst but also grabbing what opportunities their predicament affords them. Violence, he finds, is never a simple reflection of the optimal strategy of its users; its profoundly interactive character defeats simple maximization logics while producing surprising outcomes, such as relative nonviolence in the 'frontlines' of civil war.
Analyses the complexities of Christian-Muslim conflict that threatens the fragile democracy of Nigeria, and the implications for global peace and security.
This publication is part of a two volume set which builds upon previous World Bank research into the causes and characteristics of civil war onset, particularly the model developed by Paul Collier and Anke Hoeffler regarding the relationship between violent political conflict and economic development. This volume considers the variables identified in the Collier-Hoeffler model and applies them to a set of case studies from a range of African countries, and then goes on to trace the process of conflict escalation in order to draw conclusions as to why civil war is likely to occur. The publication seeks to advance theoretical and empirical knowledge of civil war, in order to help further the objective of developing appropriate policy interventions. Another volume with case studies from a range of non-African countries is available separately (ISBN 0821360493).
Oil, diamonds, timber, food aid - just some of the suggestions put forward as explanations for African wars in the past decade. Another set of suggestions focuses on ethnic and clan considerations. These economic and ethnic or clan explanations contend that wars are specifically not fought by states for political interests with mainly conventional military means, as originally suggested by Carl von Clausewitz in the 19th century. This study shows how alternative social organizations to the state can be viewed as political actors using war as a political instrument.
'This masterly book succinctly surveys contemporary literature on the sources of conflict in developing countries as well as policies to secure a stable peace, including many insightful contributions by the author. the treatment of this important but controversial field is both informative and well balanced. It should be essential reading for all students and policy makers who believe that policy should be evidence-based.' - Frances Stewart, University of Oxford, UK