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Our intuition on how the world works could well be wrong. We are surprised when new competitors burst on the scene, or businesses protected by large and deep moats find their defenses easily breached, or vast new markets are conjured from nothing. Trend lines resemble saw-tooth mountain ridges. The world not only feels different. The data tell us it is different. Based on years of research by the directors of the McKinsey Global Institute, No Ordinary Disruption: The Four Forces Breaking all the Trends is a timely and important analysis of how we need to reset our intuition as a result of four forces colliding and transforming the global economy: the rise of emerging markets, the accelerating impact of technology on the natural forces of market competition, an aging world population, and accelerating flows of trade, capital and people. Our intuitions formed during a uniquely benign period for the world economy -- often termed the Great Moderation. Asset prices were rising, cost of capital was falling, labour and resources were abundant, and generation after generation was growing up more prosperous than their parents. But the Great Moderation has gone. The cost of capital may rise. The price of everything from grain to steel may become more volatile. The world's labor force could shrink. Individuals, particularly those with low job skills, are at risk of growing up poorer than their parents. What sets No Ordinary Disruption apart is depth of analysis combined with lively writing informed by surprising, memorable insights that enable us to quickly grasp the disruptive forces at work. For evidence of the shift to emerging markets, consider the startling fact that, by 2025, a single regional city in China -- Tianjin -- will have a GDP equal to that of the Sweden, of that, in the decades ahead, half of the world's economic growth will come from 440 cities including Kumasi in Ghana or Santa Carina in Brazil that most executives today would be hard-pressed to locate on a map. What we are now seeing is no ordinary disruption but the new facts of business life -- facts that require executives and leaders at all levels to reset their operating assumptions and management intuition.
The emergence of a global economy has led to the erosion of local autonomy and national sovereignty with an associated emphasis on the spread of liberal, free-market economics. A clear divide is appearing between those benefiting from and those disadvantaged by this process. Among the most important consequences are changes in the patterns of health and the prevalence of disease. While infant mortality is declining in most countries, and many formerly prevalent diseases are being successfully tackled, the move from subsistence to cash economies brings with it changes in diet, alcohol consumption and high levels of smoking; with the result that non-communicable, 'lifestyle illnesses' such as heart disease and diabetes are spreading rapidly. Similarly, growing divisions of wealth add to the problem, bringing diseases relating to poverty and malnourishment as well as those caused by affluence and over-consumption. Issues covered in this book include equitable and sustainable modernization, the determinants of health, the process of marginalization, and survival strategies on the periphery. The authors draw on primary case study material, largely from societies in the Pacific region undergoing modernization, to provide invaluable information for tracking and assessing the full impacts of these changes.
This book collects OECD work that builds on recent contributions to the theory and empirics of comparative advantage, putting particular emphasis on the role policy can play in shaping trade.
Global Transition is an innovative study that analyzes the problems and prospects of the Third World by building on the theoretical contribution--the dynamic-strategy model--made in the author's acclaimed Longrun Dynamics (1998). It formulates a general economic and political theory he calls the Global Strategic Transition (GST) model. The central feature of this model is the global strategic demand-response mechanism involving an interaction between the world's expanding strategic core and its fringe, which is facilitated through strategic inflation. This model also provides the basis for a new policy approach to economic development.
Uses an innovative conceptual approach to explore the way in which processes of globalization transform and impact upon everyday life. Engaging with a range of theories and concepts, the book provides an accessible discussion of modern issues for students of Globalization and Sociology.
Economic transition in China has witnessed (re)centralization of resources from the margin to the core in economic, social and political senses. This book employs a marginalization lens to reveal, delineate and better understand the processes, patterns, trends, multiple dimensions and dynamics of the phenomenon, and the consequences and implications for development and well-being in the country. Bringing together a wide range of domestic and international experts and disciplinary perspectives, the book combines empirical research and conceptual analysis to provide an insightful overview of China's recent development. It contributes to the debate over marginalization and its interactions with globalization and transition in China, and has significance for various domestic and international policy arenas in respect of tackling marginalization, poverty and social exclusion effectively while striving for the achievement of the UN Millennium Development Goals in China and beyond.
The technological revolution has reached around the world, with important consequences for business, government, and the labor market. Computer-aided design, telecommunications, and other developments are allowing small players to compete with traditional giants in manufacturing and other fields. In this volume, 16 engineering and industrial experts representing eight countries discuss the growth of technological advances and their impact on specific industries and regions of the world. From various perspectives, these distinguished commentators describe the practical aspects of technology's reach into business and trade.
Global value chains (GVCs) powered the surge of international trade after 1990 and now account for almost half of all trade. This shift enabled an unprecedented economic convergence: poor countries grew rapidly and began to catch up with richer countries. Since the 2008 global financial crisis, however, the growth of trade has been sluggish and the expansion of GVCs has stalled. Meanwhile, serious threats have emerged to the model of trade-led growth. New technologies could draw production closer to the consumer and reduce the demand for labor. And trade conflicts among large countries could lead to a retrenchment or a segmentation of GVCs. World Development Report 2020: Trading for Development in the Age of Global Value Chains examines whether there is still a path to development through GVCs and trade. It concludes that technological change is, at this stage, more a boon than a curse. GVCs can continue to boost growth, create better jobs, and reduce poverty provided that developing countries implement deeper reforms to promote GVC participation; industrial countries pursue open, predictable policies; and all countries revive multilateral cooperation.
History has declared globalization the winner of the 20th century. Globalization connected the world and created wealth unimaginable in the wake of the Second World War. But the financial crisis of 2008-09 has now placed at risk the liberal economic policies behind globalization. Engulfing the entire world, the crisis gave new fuel to the skeptics of the benefits of economic integration. Policy responses seem to favor anti-globalizers. New regulations could balkanize the global financial system, while widespread protectionist impulses might undo the Doha Round. Issues from climate change to national security may be used as convenient excuses to keep imports out, keep jobs at home, and to clamp down on global capital. Will globalization triumph or perish in the 21st century? What reforms make sense in the post-crisis world?International economists Gary Clyde Hufbauer and Kati Suominen argue that globalization has been a force of great good, one that needs to be actively advanced and honed. Drawing on the latest economic analyses, they reveal the drivers and effects of global finance and trade, lay out the key risks to globalization, and offer a practical policy roadmap for managing the challenges while increasing the gains. Vital reading for anyone in business, finance, foreign affairs, or economics, Globalization at Risk is sure to advance public debate on this defining issue of the 21st century.
The challenges for young people making the transition to adulthood are greater today than ever before. Globalization, with its power to reach across national boundaries and into the smallest communities, carries with it the transformative power of new markets and new technology. At the same time, globalization brings with it new ideas and lifestyles that can conflict with traditional norms and values. And while the economic benefits are potentially enormous, the actual course of globalization has not been without its critics who charge that, to date, the gains have been very unevenly distributed, generating a new set of problems associated with rising inequality and social polarization. Regardless of how the globalization debate is resolved, it is clear that as broad global forces transform the world in which the next generation will live and work, the choices that today's young people make or others make on their behalf will facilitate or constrain their success as adults. Traditional expectations regarding future employment prospects and life experiences are no longer valid. Growing Up Global examines how the transition to adulthood is changing in developing countries, and what the implications of these changes might be for those responsible for designing youth policies and programs, in particular, those affecting adolescent reproductive health. The report sets forth a framework that identifies criteria for successful transitions in the context of contemporary global changes for five key adult roles: adult worker, citizen and community participant, spouse, parent, and household manager.