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The contemporary nuclear landscape is rife with challenges. Stagnated progress in disarmament, widespread modernization plans, and emergent proliferation pathways are contributing to the risk of catastrophe. Meanwhile, global nuclear order appears more precarious than ever. This book makes a case for a regional reorientation of the nuclear nonproliferation regime, arguing that a more specialized, decentralized, and localized arrangement could more effectively address post-Cold War challenges. In the process, it develops a framework to analyze the conditions that would allow for more robust regional nuclear cooperation.?? Regional Pathways to Nuclear Nonproliferation includes a series of case studies, centering on Northeast Asia, Southeast Asia, and the Middle East. It provides a comprehensive overview of existing nuclear cooperation at the regional level, including in the context of nuclear-weapon-free zones. For each case, the book both analyzes the viability of a stronger regional nuclear order and considers the form such an order would likely take. What is the magnitude and character of the nuclear proliferation threat across different regions? What does the presence of institutions in economic, environmental, and human security domains suggest about the likelihood of addressing that threat? A better understanding of broader regional patterns may be the key to explaining the possibility of regional nuclear cooperation. It may also help identify means to effectuate the timing and scale of that cooperation, bolstering regional nuclear orders and, in turn, ensuring the viability of global nuclear order.
Like shifting sands of a desert, the global nuclear landscape changes every few years across its three main constituents - nuclear energy, non-proliferation and disarmament. Each of these has seen phases of cautious optimism, deep scepticism and outright pessimism over the last two decades. This book offers a bird’s eye view on all the three, even as the individual authors offer a worm’s eye view on each specific topic within the larger ambit. The first section of the book examines developments in the nuclear energy sector. A broad-brush scan of the contemporary drivers and challenges for nuclear energy at a global level, as also that of India, reveals a positive trend line. There is also cautious optimism around the concept, developments and prospects of small modular reactors. It remains to be seen how effectively and quikcly licensing and regulation issues are resolved for the new concepts to become commericially viable. The second part of the book is devoted to non-proliferation. Vertical nucluear and missile proliferation amongst nuclear armed states, and horizontal proliferation cases of Iran and possibilities in East Asia are considered. Nuclear terrorism and the state of the NPT are also examined. Collectively, these issues reflect a mood of pessimism on non-proliferation at this juncture. Neither is there much to cheer on nuclear disarmament. The last section of the book examines the consequences of use of nuclear weapons, concepts of CBMs and arms control, and recent disarmament initiatives. A tentative exploration of the prospects of disarmament in the wake of Russia-Ukraine conflict is also undertaken. A hope that good sense will prevail, and fear that it might not, seem to coexist at this moment. It is in India's interest to proactively shape the landscape across these three elements. The book seeks to provide the basis to do so.
Arms control, for decades at the core of the foreign policy consensus, today is among the more contentious issues in American politics. It is pilloried and considered out of mode in many conservative quarters, while being viewed as nearly sacrosanct in many liberal circles. In this new book, Michael Levi and Michael O'Hanlon argue that neither the left nor the right has a correct view of the proper utility of arms control in the age of terror. Arms control in the traditional sense--lengthy treaties to limit nuclear and other military competitions among the great powers--is no longer particularly useful. Nor should arms control be pursued as a means to the end of constraining the power of nations or of promoting global government. It is still a critical tool, though, for controlling dangerous technologies, particularly those that, in the hands of hostile states or terrorist organizations, could cause massive death and destruction. Arms control and coercive action, including military force, must be integrated into an overall strategy for preventing proliferation, now more than ever before. Arms control should be used to gain earlier warning of illicit activities inside dangerous states, allowing the international community to take coercive action in a timely way. The authors propose three new criteria to guide future arms control efforts, designed to respond to today's geopolitical realities. Arms control must focus on the dangers of catastrophic technology, not so much in the hands of major powers as of small states and terrorist groups. Their criteria lead to a natural focus on nuclear and biological technologies. Much tougher measures to prevent countries from gaining nuclear weapons technoloty while purportedly complying with the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty and procedures for controlling dangerous biological technologies will be most prominent in this framework, while lower priority is giben to efforts such as bilateral nuclear accords and most t
This book examines the importance of global nuclear order, emphasising the importance of perspective in our understanding of it, and its significance in international politics. Addressing a gap in existing literature, this book provides an introduction to nuclear weapon states and their relationship with the global nuclear order/disorder paradigm. It explores four main themes and aims to: 1. conceptualise the dichotomous paradigm of global nuclear order/disorder; 2. outline the different phases of global nuclear order/disorder from 1945 to present; 3. address the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) and the wider international nuclear non-proliferation regime; 4. provide an overview of every nuclear weapon state’s national nuclear doctrines throughout the years. The book will be of much interest to students of nuclear proliferation, global governance, security studies, Cold War studies, foreign policy and IR, more generally.
Asia has the world’s highest concentration of nuclear weapons and the most significant recent developments related to nuclear proliferation, as well as the world’s most critical conflicts and considerable political instability. The containment and prevention of nuclear proliferation, especially in Asia, continues to be a grave concern for the international community. This book provides a comprehensive overview of the state of nuclear arsenals, nuclear ambitions and nuclear threats across different parts of Asia. It covers the Middle East (including Israel), China, India-Pakistan and their confrontation, as well as North Korea. It discusses the conventional warfare risks, risks from non-state armed groups, and examines the attempts to limit and control nuclear weapons, both international initiatives and American diplomacy and interventions. The book concludes by assessing the possibility of nuclear revival, the potential outcomes of international approaches to nuclear disarmament, and the efficacy of coercive diplomacy in containing nuclear proliferation.
An exploration of the future geopolitical landscape of the Middle East in postnuclear Iran and what that means for US foreign policy in the region. In an age of nuclear experimentation, military conflicts, and ISIS, the Middle East is unstable, and the Iranian nuclear deal is shrouded in controversy and mistrust. How will this agreement impact US relations and strengths, not only in the region, but around the world? Will the United States be challenged for world leadership? In Volatile State: Iran in the Nuclear Age, global affairs analyst David Oualaalou explores the new geopolitical landscape and how it will allow a nuclear Iran to flex its military, economic, and ideological muscles with the assistance of Russia and China. Taking under consideration how other governments have reacted to the agreement, Oualaalou provides a fresh perspective on current and future relations among the United States. and its current allies and provides a compelling path forward for future strategies in the Middle East. Volatile State is a “must read” to help understand the implications and future with a nuclear deal with Iran. “David Oualaalou, a geopolitical analyst, writer, speaker, teacher, military veteran, Middle East specialist and linguist with unique first-hand experiences and knowledge gained from personal field intelligence in Middle East wars—combined with his fresh and unique writing style—has produced a challenging perspective and a thought-provoking book. David’s unembellished bold critiques, with credible analytical interpretation of geopolitical implications and national security challenges, for not only the USA but for the Iran, Saudi Arabia, Russia, China and others in the new Middle East region (and world), will be much discussed in this impressive approach to eye-opening questions with credible rival answers. I believe this book is crucial reading for any person interested in the future nuclear Middle East.” —William A. Mitchell, author of Baylor in Northern Iraq During Operation Iraqi Freedom “Once again Dr. Oualaalou has brought to life a complex current topic. His balanced and in-depth investigation of the topic allows the reader to not only learn the history of the parties involved, but also to follow the historic threads that have led to today’s geopolitical situation. Dr. Oualaalou has the experience and expertise to give a clear picture of the region’s issues today and projection of possible scenarios in the future.” —Mortada Mohamed, President, World Affairs Council of Austin
Today, space has become a seamless part of many military and civilian activities. The advantages the United States holds in space capabilities will drive some nations to improve their abilities to access and operate in space. Moreover, some actors will seek counterspace capabilities that target the perceived United States and allied reliance on space, including the ability to use secure satellite communications, precision strike capabilities, and ISR assets. As the number of spacefaring nations grows and as some actors integrate space and counterspace capabilities into military operations, these trends will pose a challenge to U.S. space dominance and present new risks for assets on orbit.
These essays by nuclear policy experts provide “a speculative but serious and well-informed journey through a variety of scenarios and contingencies” (Foreign Affairs). Recent decades have seen a slow but steady increase in nuclear armed states, and in the seemingly less constrained policy goals of some of the newer “rogue” states in the international system. The authors of On Limited Nuclear War in the 21st Century argue that a time may come when one of these states makes the conscious decision that using a nuclear weapon against the United States, its allies, or forward deployed forces in the context of a crisis or a regional conventional conflict may be in its interests. They assert that we are unprepared for these types of limited nuclear wars and that it is urgent we rethink the theory, policy, and implementation of force related to our approaches to this type of engagement. Together they critique Cold War doctrine on limited nuclear war and consider a number of the key concepts that should govern our approach to limited nuclear conflict in the future. These include identifying the factors likely to lead to limited nuclear war; examining the geopolitics of future conflict scenarios that might lead to small-scale nuclear use; and assessing strategies for crisis management and escalation control. Finally, they consider a range of strategies and operational concepts for countering, controlling, or containing limited nuclear war. “A series of trenchant essays that deconstruct a critical national security challenge that most of us wish did not exist. Assembling a star-studded cast of scholars, analysts, and policy practitioners, Larsen and Kartchner have produced some of the most important new thinking on an old topic.” —H-Diplo
Recent discoveries in psychology and neuroscience have improved our understanding of why our decision making processes fail to match standard social science assumptions about rationality. As researchers such as Daniel Kahneman, Amos Tversky, and Richard Thaler have shown, people often depart in systematic ways from the predictions of the rational actor model of classic economic thought because of the influence of emotions, cognitive biases, an aversion to loss, and other strong motivations and values. These findings about the limits of rationality have formed the basis of behavioral economics, an approach that has attracted enormous attention in recent years. This collection of essays applies the insights of behavioral economics to the study of nuclear weapons policy. Behavioral economics gives us a more accurate picture of how people think and, as a consequence, of how they make decisions about whether to acquire or use nuclear arms. Such decisions are made in real-world circumstances in which rational calculations about cost and benefit are intertwined with complicated emotions and subject to human limitations. Strategies for pursuing nuclear deterrence and nonproliferation should therefore, argue the contributors, account for these dynamics in a systematic way. The contributors to this collection examine how a behavioral approach might inform our understanding of topics such as deterrence, economic sanctions, the nuclear nonproliferation regime, and U.S. domestic debates about ballistic missile defense. The essays also take note of the limitations of a behavioral approach for dealing with situations in which even a single deviation from the predictions of any model can have dire consequences.