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Maintaining international security and pursuing American interests is more difficult now than perhaps at any time in history. The security environment that the United States faces is more complex, dynamic, and difficult to predict. At the same time, no domestic consensus exists on the purposes of American power and how best to pursue them. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) looks ahead in this annual volume at the “flashpoints” that will likely arise in 2016, how best to deal with them, and what lasting effects they might leave for the next American administration and its allies around the world.
A major new book by New York Times bestselling author and geopolitical forecaster George Friedman (The Next 100 Years), with a bold thesis about coming events in Europe. This provocative work examines “flashpoints,” unique geopolitical hot spots where tensions have erupted throughout history, and where conflict is due to emerge again. “There is a temptation, when you are around George Friedman, to treat him like a Magic 8 Ball.” —The New York Times Magazine With remarkable accuracy, George Friedman has forecasted coming trends in global politics, technology, population, and culture. In Flashpoints, Friedman focuses on Europe—the world’s cultural and power nexus for the past five hundred years . . . until now. Analyzing the most unstable, unexpected, and fascinating borderlands of Europe and Russia—and the fault lines that have existed for centuries and have been ground zero for multiple catastrophic wars—Friedman highlights, in an unprecedentedly personal way, the flashpoints that are smoldering once again. The modern-day European Union was crafted in large part to minimize built-in geopolitical tensions that historically have torn it apart. As Friedman demonstrates, with a mix of rich history and cultural analysis, that design is failing. Flashpoints narrates a living history of Europe and explains, with great clarity, its most volatile regions: the turbulent and ever-shifting land dividing the West from Russia (a vast area that currently includes Ukraine, Belarus, and Lithuania); the ancient borderland between France and Germany; and the Mediterranean, which gave rise to Judaism and Christianity and became a center of Islamic life. Through Friedman’s seamless narrative of townspeople and rivers and villages, a clear picture of regions and countries and history begins to emerge. Flashpoints is an engrossing analysis of modern-day Europe, its remarkable past, and the simmering fault lines that have awakened and will be pivotal in the near future. This is George Friedman’s most timely and, ultimately, riveting book.
A timely account of the four most troubled hotspots in the world’s most combustible region Asia is at a dangerous moment. China is rising fast, and its regional ambitions are growing. Reckless North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un may be assembling more nuclear weapons, despite diplomatic efforts to eradicate his arsenal. Japan is building up its military, throwing off constitutional constraints imposed after World War II. The United States, for so long a stabilising presence in Asia, is behaving erratically: Donald Trump is the first US president since the 1970s to break diplomatic protocol and speak with Taiwan, and the first to threaten war with North Korea if denuclearisation does not occur. The possibility of global catastrophe looms ever closer. In this revelatory analysis, geopolitical expert Brendan Taylor examines the four Asian flashpoints most likely to erupt in sudden and violent conflict: the Korean Peninsula, the East China Sea, the South China Sea and Taiwan. He sketches how clashes could play out in these global hotspots and argues that crisis can only be averted by understanding the complex relations between them. Drawing on history, in-depth reports and his intimate observations of the region, Taylor asks what the world’s major powers can do to avoid an eruption of war – and shows how Asia could change this otherwise disastrous trajectory.
Drawing upon the comprehensive presentation of the equipment and organisation of the People's Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and the People's Liberation Army Naval Air Force (PLANAF)...this study offers an overview of potential military conflicts along the borders of the People's Republic of China (PRC).
The South China Sea Disputes: Flashpoints, Turning Points and Trajectories focuses on the currently much-debated theme of the South China Sea disputes — one of the hottest international disputes of the 21st century which can easily turn from a brewing flashpoint into a regional conflict with global repercussions. Through a compilation of commentaries published by the S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies from 2012 to much of 2016, the book attempts to reflect the evolution of the disputes in recent years through what can be seen as turning points and trajectories in the diplomatic tensions. The book is divided into four sections, taking off from a key diplomatic or related incident/development which can be seen as a turning point for each, with the concluding section looking at what lies ahead for Southeast Asia and the larger Asia-Pacific region, amidst the uncertainties triggered by the South China Sea imbroglio.Among the contributors: Arif Havas Oegroseno, BA Hamzah, Barry Desker, Bill Hayton, David Rosenberg, Donald K. Emmerson, Ellen Frost, Hasjim Djalal, Ian Townsend-Gault, Joseph CY Liow, Kwa Chong Guan, Li Mingjiang, Li Jian Wei, Li Dexia, Marvin Ott, Mushahid Ali, Muthiah Alagappa, Nguyen Hung Son, Nguyen Thi Lan Anh, Phoak Kung, Ralf Emmers, Rene L. Pattiradjawane, Raul (Pete) Pedrozo, Richard Javad Heydarian, Robert C. Beckman, Shashi Jayakumar, Victor Savage, Yang Razali Kassim, Zha Daojiong.
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Maintaining international security and pursuing American interests is more difficult now than perhaps at any time in history. The security environment that the United States faces is more complex, dynamic, and difficult to predict. At the same time, no domestic consensus exists on the purposes of American power and how best to pursue them. The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS) will look ahead in this annual volume at the “flashpoints” that will likely arise in 2015, how best to deal with them, and what lasting effects they might leave for the next American administration and its allies around the world. Contributions by: Jon B. Alterman, Samuel J. Brannen, Ernest Z. Bower, Heather A. Conley, Anthony H. Cordesman, Victor Cha, Edward C. Chow, Jennifer G. Cooke, Zack Cooper, Michael J. Green, Matthew P. Goodman, John J. Hamre, Kathleen H. Hicks, Christopher K. Johnson, Stephanie Sanok Kostro, Andrew C. Kuchins, Sarah Ladislaw, Maren Leed, James A. Lewis, Haim Malka, Jeffrey Mankoff, Carl Meacham, Sarah Mendelson, Andrew A. Michta, Scott Miller, J. Stephen Morrison, Clark A. Murdock, Richard M. Rossow, Daniel F. Runde, Thomas M. Sanderson, Conor M. Savoy, Sharon Squassoni, Amy Studdart, Nicholas Szechenyi, and Juan C. Zarate.
The Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), a bipartisan think tank in Washington, D.C., looks ahead in this annual volume at the critical international policy issues facing the United States and the world in 2017. This collection of essays by CSIS experts seeks to flesh out the specific policy areas that the new U.S. administration will face in an uncertain and dynamic global context. Global Flashpoints is a valuable resource for understanding the foreign and defense policy questions that will be critical to the United States and its allies in the years ahead.
Digital technologies are spreading rapidly, but digital dividends--the broader benefits of faster growth, more jobs, and better services--are not. If more than 40 percent of adults in East Africa pay their utility bills using a mobile phone, why can’t others around the world do the same? If 8 million entrepreneurs in China--one third of them women--can use an e-commerce platform to export goods to 120 countries, why can’t entrepreneurs elsewhere achieve the same global reach? And if India can provide unique digital identification to 1 billion people in five years, and thereby reduce corruption by billions of dollars, why can’t other countries replicate its success? Indeed, what’s holding back countries from realizing the profound and transformational effects that digital technologies are supposed to deliver? Two main reasons. First, nearly 60 percent of the world’s population are still offline and can’t participate in the digital economy in any meaningful way. Second, and more important, the benefits of digital technologies can be offset by growing risks. Startups can disrupt incumbents, but not when vested interests and regulatory uncertainty obstruct competition and the entry of new firms. Employment opportunities may be greater, but not when the labor market is polarized. The internet can be a platform for universal empowerment, but not when it becomes a tool for state control and elite capture. The World Development Report 2016 shows that while the digital revolution has forged ahead, its 'analog complements'--the regulations that promote entry and competition, the skills that enable workers to access and then leverage the new economy, and the institutions that are accountable to citizens--have not kept pace. And when these analog complements to digital investments are absent, the development impact can be disappointing. What, then, should countries do? They should formulate digital development strategies that are much broader than current information and communication technology (ICT) strategies. They should create a policy and institutional environment for technology that fosters the greatest benefits. In short, they need to build a strong analog foundation to deliver digital dividends to everyone, everywhere.
Now in an updated edition, this pioneering and authoritative study considers the profound impact of the growing global water crunch on international peace and security as well as possible ways to mitigate the crisis. Although water is essential to sustaining life and livelihoods, geostrategist Brahma Chellaney argues that it remains the world’s most underappreciated and undervalued resource. One sobering fact is that the retail price of bottled water is already higher than the international spot price of crude oil. But unlike oil, water has no substitute, raising the specter of water becoming the next flashpoint for conflict. Water war as a concept may not mesh with the conventional construct of warfare, especially for those who plan with tanks, combat planes, and attack submarines as weapons. Yet armies don’t necessarily have to march to battle to seize or defend water resources. Water wars—in a political, diplomatic, or economic sense—are already being waged between riparian neighbors in many parts of the world, fueling cycles of bitter recrimination, exacerbating water challenges, and fostering mistrust that impedes broader regional cooperation and integration. The danger is that these water wars could escalate to armed conflict or further limit already stretched food and energy production. Writing in a direct, nontechnical, and engaging style, Brahma Chellaney draws on a wide range of research from scientific and policy fields to examine the different global linkages between water and peace. Offering a holistic picture and integrated solutions, his book has become the recognized authority on the most precious natural resource of this century and how we can secure humankind’s water future.