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The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
The OECD Economic Outlook, Volume 2021 Issue 1, highlights the improved prospects for the global economy due to vaccinations and stronger policy support, but also points to uneven progress across countries and key risks and challenges in maintaining and strengthening the recovery.
Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
Although the global economy is emerging from the collapse triggered by COVID-19, the recovery is likely to be subdued, and global GDP is projected to remain well below its pre-pandemic trend for a prolonged period. Several risks cloud the outlook, including those related to the pandemic and to rapidly rising debt. The pandemic has further diminished already-weak growth prospects for the next decade. Decisive policy actions will be critical in raising the likelihood of better growth outcomes while warding off worse ones. Immediate priorities include supporting vulnerable groups and ensuring a prompt and widespread vaccination process to bring the pandemic under control. Although macroeconomic policy support will continue to be important, limited fiscal policy space amid high debt highlights the need for an ambitious reform agenda that bolsters growth prospects. To address many of these challenges, global cooperation will be key. Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). The January edition includes in-depth analyses of topical policy challenges faced by these economies, while the June edition contains shorter analytical pieces.
Global growth is projected to slow significantly in the second half of this year, with weakness continuing in 2024. Inflation pressures persist, and tight monetary policy is expected to weigh substantially on activity. The possibility of more widespread bank turmoil and tighter monetary policy could result in even weaker global growth. Rising borrowing costs in advanced economies could lead to financial dislocations in the more vulnerable emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs). In low-income countries, in particular, fiscal positions are increasingly precarious. Comprehensive policy action is needed at the global and national levels to foster macroeconomic and financial stability. Among many EMDEs, and especially in low-income countries, bolstering fiscal sustainability will require generating higher revenues, making spending more efficient, and improving debt management practices. Continued international cooperation is also necessary to tackle climate change, support populations affected by crises and hunger, and provide debt relief where needed. In the longer term, reversing a projected decline in EMDE potential growth will require reforms to bolster physical and human capital and labor-supply growth.
The world economy continues to suffer from a series of destabilizing shocks. After more than two years of pandemic, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and its global effects on commodity markets, supply chains, inflation, and financial conditions have steepened the slowdown in global growth. In particular, the war is leading to soaring prices and volatility in energy markets, with improvements in activity in energy exporters more than offset by headwinds to activity in most other economies. The war has also led to a significant increase in agricultural commodity prices, which is exacerbating food insecurity and extreme poverty in many emerging market and developing economies. Numerous risks could further derail what is now a precarious recovery. Among them is, in particular, the possibility of stubbornly high global inflation accompanied by tepid growth, reminiscent of the stagflation of the 1970s. This could eventually result in a sharp tightening of monetary policy in advanced economies to rein in inflation, lead to surging borrowing costs, and possibly culminate in financial stress in some emerging market and developing economies. A forceful and wide-ranging policy response is required by policy makers and the global community to boost growth, bolster macroeconomic frameworks, reduce financial vulnerabilities, provide support to the vulnerable population groups, and attenuate the long-term impacts of the global shocks of recent years.
The OECD Economic Outlook is the OECD's twice-yearly analysis of the major economic trends and prospects for the next two years. This issue includes a general assessment of the macroeconomic situation, a series of notes on the macroeconomic and structural policy issues related to the COVID-19 outbreak and a chapter summarising developments and providing projections for each individual country.
As they enter the new millennium, developing countries are struggling to recover from one of their deepest recessions since World War II. 'Global Economic Prospects 2000' will improve your understanding and keep you informed of the forces shaping today's changing global economy.The report offers an in-depth analysis of the economic prospects of developing economies in the wake of the financial crisis and as they enter the new millennium. It examines the impact of the recent financial crisis on growth and poverty in the developing world and reviews economic output, trade, and financial developments in industrial economies. 'Global Economic Prospects 2000' focuses on three main issues: • how Sub-Saharan African commodity exporters and major developing country oil exporters have adjusted to the sharp swings in commodity prices since the mid-1990s; • the extent of corporate restructuring in East Asia and its role in their recovery; • the impact of the recent crisis on poverty in developing countries. As in past editions, detailed statistical tables and an analysis of developments for each of the developing country regions are included.'Global Economic Prospects 2000' provides essential information for anyone concerned with the economic developments affecting our shifting global economy.
This edition of the annual publication considers the need to reshape the global architecture of world trade, in order to help strengthen the economies of developing countries and reduce world poverty. The report focuses on four policy areas: the establishment of a development round of WTO negotiations to reduce trade barriers; global co-operation to expand trade outside the WTO; the adoption of pro-trade development policies by high-income countries; and enacting trade reforms in developing countries. The findings of the report suggest that developing countries could significantly increase their incomes, if all countries progressively implement the proposed trade reforms. This would result in a world with a much higher standard of living, an estimated 300 million people lifted out of poverty by 2015, and a significant increase in the number of children living beyond their fifth birthday throughout the developing world.
Global growth is expected to decelerate sharply, reflecting synchronous policy tightening aimed at containing very high inflation, worsening financial conditions, and continued disruptions from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Investment growth in emerging market and developing economies (EMDEs) is expected to remain below its average rate of the past two decades. Further adverse shocks could push the global economy into recession. Small states are especially vulnerable to such shocks because of the reliance on external trade and financing, limited economic diversification, elevated debt, and susceptibility to natural disasters. Against this backdrop, it is critical that EMDE policy makers ensure that any fiscal support is focused on vulnerable groups, that inflation expectations remain well anchored, and that financial systems continue to be resilient. Urgent global and national efforts are also needed to mitigate the risks of global recession and debt distress in EMDEs and to support a major increase in EMDE investment.