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Ghana has been hit hard by the pandemic. The government’s proactive response helped contain the spread of COVID-19, protecting lives and limiting the impact on economic activity. However, partly because of the pandemic, the fiscal position worsened considerably last year, with a sharp increase in public sector debt.
While the non-mining sector was severely impacted by the COVID-19 crisis, overall growth in Guinea remains strong, reaching 7 percent in 2020, driven by booming mining production. Inflation exceeded 12 percent as a result of COVID-related supply disruptions and the ongoing monetary and fiscal response. The already weak social indicators have deteriorated further.
South Africa’s subpar economic performance over the last decade has weakened its macroeconomic fundamentals and social indicators. In response to formidable COVID-19-related challenges, government expenditure surged, and, amid declining revenue, the budget deficit widened significantly. The South African Reserve Bank (SARB) and the Prudential Authority (PA) preserved adequate liquidity conditions and financial-sector stability. The cyclical recovery from the deep contraction has been faster than expected but its strength is unlikely to be sustained. Benign global market conditions have supported asset performance, although term premia are elevated due to fiscal risks. Bank soundness indicators remain solid, but a deepening bank-sovereign nexus raises some concerns.
The COVID-19 pandemic and oil price shocks have taken a deep toll on the Congolese economy, weighing on incomes and inequality. Debt sustainability challenges precluded Fund financial assistance during the pandemic, and the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement, approved in 2019, expired in April 2021 without having completed the first review. Recently, debt sustainability has been restored owing to the authorities’ debt restructuring strategy and current and projected higher oil prices. However, the risk of debt distress remains high given liquidity risks and vulnerabilities to negative oil price shocks. The authorities are actively negotiating the resolution of pending external arrears. Until this process is concluded and the negotiations with two external creditors are finalized, debt is classified as being “in distress.”
This book is about oil and gas dynamics in the world’s newest petro-powers-in-the-making, and the attempts to balance this against the impact of climate change. The known oil reserves in the Guyana-Suriname Basin total some 30 billion barrels equivalent, and the gas reserves exceed 30 trillion cubic feet. This massive offshore discovery amounts to 10 percent of the world’s conventional oil, but Guyana and Suriname are also in a wet neighborhood, where the impact of climate change stands to wreak havoc on the area and undermine some of the oil gains. Examining the political economy of petroleum production and some of the myriad challenges and opportunities involved, the expert contributors discuss the global and regional geopolitical and national security ramifications of the petroleum pursuits and explore global climate change dynamics and their effects on the region. This title will be of interest to students, scholars of international political economy, environmental politics, and the Caribbean. It will also be invaluable to policymakers in countries with business investments in Guyana and Suriname, especially in the energy sector, and policy and operational staffs in regional and international organizations and companies.
Côte d’Ivoire has shown strong resilience to the pandemic, owing to the authorities’ swift policy reaction and to a decade of sound macroeconomic policies, as well as the support of the international community including the IMF.
With both domestic and external financing expected to dry up in the wake of the COVID-19 pandemic, this book argues that there is a need for fresh ideas and new strategies for achieving sustainable development in Africa. In addition to triggering the most severe recession in nearly a century, the COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted global value chains, causing unprecedented damage to healthcare systems, economies, and well-being, hitting the world’s most vulnerable people the hardest. Even before the pandemic, Africa was suffering from the effects of low commodity prices, sluggish GDP growth, high debt levels, low levels of domestic savings, and weak private capital inflows. This book argues that now, as the continent emerges from the current crisis, it will be important to reconfigure current financing sources under a forward-looking framework that incorporates other non-traditional financing tools and mechanisms such as public-private partnerships, sovereign wealth funds, gender lens investing, new growth drivers, and emerging and disruptive technologies. Finally, the book concludes by adopting a sectoral approach and examining the real economy impacts of new growth drivers such as agriculture value chains, industrialization, tourism, and the blue economy. Drawing on a range of original research as well as insights from practice, this book will be a useful guide for Global Development and African Studies researchers, as well as for policy makers, investors, finance specialists, and global business practitioners and entrepreneurs.
The COVID-19 pandemic triggered the largest global economic crisis in more than a century. In 2020, economic activity contracted in 90 percent of countries, the world economy shrank by about 3 percent, and global poverty increased for the first time in a generation. Governments responded rapidly with fiscal, monetary, and financial policies that alleviated the worst immediate economic impacts of the crisis. Yet the world must still contend with the significant longer-term financial and economic risks caused by, or exacerbated by, the pandemic and the government responses needed to mitigate its effects. World Development Report 2022: Finance for an Equitable Recovery examines the central role of finance in the economic recovery from COVID-19. Based on an in-depth look at the consequences of the crisis most likely to affect low- and middle-income economies, it advocates a set of policies and measures to mitigate the interconnected economic risks stemming from the pandemic—risks that may become more acute as stimulus measures are withdrawn at both the domestic and global levels. Those policies include the efficient and transparent management of nonperforming loans to mitigate threats to financial stability, insolvency reforms to allow for the orderly reduction of unsustainable debts, innovations in risk management and lending models to ensure continued access to credit for households and businesses, and improvements in sovereign debt management to preserve the ability of governments to support an equitable recovery.
The pandemic is inflicting much suffering, which has been met with swift, substantial, and well-coordinated policy responses. The anti-crisis measures have helped preserve jobs, provide liquidity to companies and income support to the vulnerable groups. They averted a larger decline in output and kept unemployment under control. After contracting by 5.5 percent in 2020, real GDP is projected to grow by 3.9 percent in 2021 and 4.5 percent in 2022, as vaccinations help achieve herd immunity. However, risks to the outlook are large and tilted to the downside, given the epidemiological situation.

Ghana

International Monetary Fund. African Dept.

Published: 2019-12-18

Total Pages: 88


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This 2019 Article IV Consultation with Ghana highlights discussions focused on strengthening institutions and policies to preserve macroeconomic stability and promote inclusive growth, building on the authorities’ “Ghana beyond Aid” strategy. The government headline deficit is projected to reach 4.7 percent of gross domestic product in 2019, driven by lower-than-expected revenues, spending on flagship programs, and unexpected security outlays due to emerging security challenges in the region. Medium-term prospects are favorable, with robust growth driven mostly by the extractive sector. Election-related spending pressures in 2020 constitute the main risk to the baseline scenario. Fiscal risks in the financial and energy sectors could also impact the government deficit. Government borrowing needs are exposed to rollover risk that should be carefully managed as financing conditions could tighten. The commitment to the new fiscal rules is expected to help maintain fiscal discipline, as reflected in the unchanged policy baseline. A more ambitious fiscal stance is called for to reduce macroeconomic risks, accelerate debt reduction, and strengthen the external balance.