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Many emerging market countries are bank-based economies and are increasingly affected by geopolitical risks, U.S. dollar dynamics, regulations, preferential trade agreements (PTAs), MNCs (that often function like international organizations), social networks, labor dynamics, cross-border spillovers and the inefficient expansion of formal/informal microfinance. Country risks, informal economies (that account for 20-50 percent of the national economy of many emerging market countries), investor protection, enforcement commitment, compliance costs, sustainability (environmental, social, economic and political sustainability), economic growth, political stability, financial stability, geopolitical risk, social networks, household economics, inequality and international trade outcomes can vary dramatically across many DECs and LDECs due to these phenomena. The COVID-19 pandemic has illustrated the many problems inherent in political systems, economic policy and governments’ emergency powers during pandemics/epidemics and economic/financial crisis. This second volume focuses on geopolitical risks that are intertwined with constitutional political economy and labor issues, alongside addressing some of the financial and constitutional crises that occurred in Europe, Asia and the U.S. during 2007-2020. This book provides analysis of complex systems and the preferences and reasoning of state/government and corporate actors in order to develop better artificial intelligence and decision-system models of geopolitical risk, public policy and international capital flows, all of which are increasingly important decision factors for investment managers, boards-of-directors and government officials.
Economic recessions, social networks, environmental damage in several large countries (eg. China, Brazil, U.S.), the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2015 and cross-border spillovers continue to significantly affect economic systems, financial markets, social structures and environmental compliance worldwide. These have rekindled economists’ and policy-makers’ interest in the relationships among constitutions, risk regulation, foreign aid, political systems, government size, credit expansion and sustainable growth. Risk regulation remains highly ineffective as manifested by the failures of new financial regulations and government stimulus programs that were implemented during 2007-2020 in many developed countries and emerging markets countries. This book, the first of two volumes, addresses these issues in the context of the role of constitutional economics and economic psychology as tools for national and global sustainable growth and risk management. Furthermore, this volume analyzes the often symbiotic relationship between alternative sets of legal-institutional-constitutional rules that constrain the choices and activities of economic and political agents on one hand, and sustainable growth, financial regulation and the risk management of financial institutions on the other; and reviews the effects of constitutions and legal institutions on market dynamics (real estate; fixed-income, stocks; etc.) including volatility, market depth and liquidity. This book will help researchers develop better artificial intelligence and decision-systems models of geopolitical risk, public policy and international capital flows, all of which are increasingly relevant to investment managers, boards-of-directors and government officials.
Many emerging market countries are increasingly affected by their "informal economies", geopolitical risks, U.S. dollar dynamics, legal/regulatory institutions, preferential trade agreements (PTAs), social networks, international labor dynamics, cross-border spillovers (from developed countries to emerging markets; including Regulatory Spillovers), constitutional political economy crises (such as those that occurred in Europe, Asia, Africa and the U.S. during 2007-2020, including the COVID-19 pandemic) and inefficient microfinance. Due to these phenomena, enforcement commitment, compliance costs, sustainable growth, quality-of-life, political stability, financial stability, household economics, inequality and international trade outcomes can vary drastically across emerging markets countries. The COVID-19 pandemic has exposed many problems inherent in political systems, economic policy, Sustainability Policy, Social Welfare systems and governments' emergency powers during pandemics/epidemics and economic/financial crisis. These foregoing issues are the geopolitical risk context of this second volume. This book also introduces complex systems theories of the "Beliefs" of government and corporate actors. Thus, this book can help researchers to develop better Artificial Intelligence, Complex Systems and decision-theory models of geopolitical risk, public policy, asset-pricing, corporate strategy, labor markets and international capital flows, all of which can be critical decision factors for investment managers, corporate executives and government officials. Michael I. C. Nwogugu is an author, serial entrepreneur and consultant who has held senior management, Board of Director and Advisory Board Member positions in companies in the U.S., Barbados, France, India and Nigeria. Mr. Nwogugu has written eight books: Risk In the Global Real Estate Market (2012); Illegal File-sharing Networks, Digital Goods Pricing And Decision Analysis (2016); Anomalies In Net Present Value, Returns And Polynomials; And Regret Theory In Decision-Making (2017); Indices, Index Funds And ETFs - Exploring HCI, Nonlinear Risk And Homomorphisms (2019); Complex Systems, Multi-Sided Incentives And Risk Perception In Organizations (2019); Earnings Management, Fintech-Driven Incentives and Sustainable Growth: On Complex Systems, Legal and Mechanism Design Factors (2020) and Complex Systems and Sustainability in the Global Auditing, Consulting, and Credit Rating Agency Industries (2021). Mr. Nwogugu's research articles have been cited in more than 20 top science journals. Mr. Nwogugu earned degrees from the University of Nigeria (Nigeria); City College of New York (USA); and Columbia University's Graduate Business School (USA). .
This book covers a lot of ground in contemporary macroeconomics, from fundamental theories such as market structures and equilibrium to emerging concepts that reflect the most critical challenges of modern times, including economic slowdowns, the resilience of public health systems, digitalization, environmental footprints, and many more. The COVID-19 outbreak has aggravated the recurrent problems of poverty and income inequality between countries, food insecurity and hunger, unemployment, and social disorders that have resulted in the exacerbation of political, economic, and trade tensions between countries. In view of the damaging consequences of the pandemic for the entire global economy, the book examines how existing macroeconomic tools and policies could be adapted to the new normal to ensure sustainable post-pandemic development and growth. The main text is interspersed with real-life illustrations and cases that demonstrate practical implications of the concepts under study. This makes the reading relevant and active. Every chapter starts with learning objectives and ends with a series of questions and quizzes that enable easier reinforcement of the course content. This book is written mainly for students, but it would be much useful to the broader public audience, including postgraduates, researchers, and business people who will be able to learn all recent updates about macroeconomics and the post-pandemic perspectives of the global economy.
Current and future issues in the global accounting/consulting, business opportunity, and credit rating agency (CRA) industries can have significant multiplier-effects on international trade, sustainable growth, and compliance (as physical phenomena). These three industries are among the most international and human-capital-intensive of all service industries. In these industries, analysis of business models and industry dynamics can provide insights about how human-computer interaction (HCI) and contract theory affect the evolution of financial market ecosystems and cross-border information flows, and how business models, work-allocation mechanisms, and liability allocation can evolve to manage change. An often-overlooked issue is that non-performing loans (NPLs), sustainability, and CRA efficiency can be significantly affected by business processes, corporate strategy, and HCI in industry ecosystems, multinational corporations (MNCs), and economic systems. Complex Systems and Sustainability in the Global Auditing, Consulting, and Credit Rating Agency Industries compares these three industries and introduces theories of public policy and “inter-business” processes. The book links industry structure, complex systems (including networks), behavioral game theory, structural changes, and antitrust problems to sustainability and the efficiency of pollution-remediation systems. The book introduces new “informal algorithms” and business/resource-allocation models that solve social-choice problems, and also contravene “impossibility theorems” that are at the core of modern computer science and mechanism design. This book is essential for professors and masters/PhD-level students and employees (in industry, financial services, research institutes, consulting firms, and government agencies) who are interested in industrial mathematics and theoretical computer science.
Economic recessions, environmental damage in several large countries (eg. China, Brazil, U.S., etc.), the Global Financial Crisis of 2007-2015, the COVID-19 Pandemic, cross-border spillovers and the failures of risk-regulation/government-stimulus programs (enacted during 2007-2020) have significantly affected economic systems, financial markets, social networks and environmental compliance worldwide, especially in emerging markets. The foregoing raises significant economic psychology and policy-making questions about the causes and measurement of cross-border spillovers (from developed countries to emerging markets), and evolving relationships among cross-border spillovers, legal/regulatory institutions, foreign aid, political systems, government size, social-welfare, fintech-platforms, asset-market dynamics (volatility, market-depth, liquidity, pension/retirement, remittances, business/consumer confidence; etc.) and sustainable growth. This book is the first of two volumes, re-defines geopolitical risk and addresses these issues in the context of the role of constitutional economics and economic psychology (especially households and companies) as tools for global sustainable growth and risk management. This book can help researchers develop better Artificial Intelligence, Complex Systems and decision-theory models of geopolitical risk, public policy, asset-pricing, global corporate strategy and international capital flows, all of which are increasingly relevant to investment managers, corporate executives, boards-of-directors and government officials. Michael I. C. Nwogugu is an author, serial entrepreneur and consultant who has held senior management, Board of Director and Advisory Board Member positions in companies in the U.S., Europe, Asia and Africa. Mr. Nwogugu wrote the following books: Risk In the Global Real Estate Market (2012); Illegal File-sharing Networks, Digital Goods Pricing And Decision Analysis (2016); Anomalies In Net Present Value, Returns And Polynomials; And Regret Theory In Decision-Making (2017); Indices, Index Funds And ETFs - Exploring HCI, Nonlinear Risk And Homomorphisms (2019); Complex Systems, Multi-Sided Incentives And Risk Perception In Organizations (2019); and Earnings Management, Fintech-Driven Incentives and Sustainable Growth: On Complex Systems, Legal and Mechanism Design Factors (2020). Mr. Nwogugu's research articles have been cited in more than twenty top science journals. Mr. Nwogugu earned degrees from the University of Nigeria (Nigeria); City College Of New York (USA); and Columbia University (New York City, USA).
The world economy is experiencing a very strong but uneven recovery, with many emerging market and developing economies facing obstacles to vaccination. The global outlook remains uncertain, with major risks around the path of the pandemic and the possibility of financial stress amid large debt loads. Policy makers face a difficult balancing act as they seek to nurture the recovery while safeguarding price stability and fiscal sustainability. A comprehensive set of policies will be required to promote a strong recovery that mitigates inequality and enhances environmental sustainability, ultimately putting economies on a path of green, resilient, and inclusive development. Prominent among the necessary policies are efforts to lower trade costs so that trade can once again become a robust engine of growth. This year marks the 30th anniversary of the Global Economic Prospects. The Global Economic Prospects is a World Bank Group Flagship Report that examines global economic developments and prospects, with a special focus on emerging market and developing economies, on a semiannual basis (in January and June). Each edition includes analytical pieces on topical policy challenges faced by these economies.
The current Global Financial Stability Report (April 2016) finds that global financial stability risks have risen since the last report in October 2015. The new report finds that the outlook has deteriorated in advanced economies because of heightened uncertainty and setbacks to growth and confidence, while declines in oil and commodity prices and slower growth have kept risks elevated in emerging markets. These developments have tightened financial conditions, reduced risk appetite, raised credit risks, and stymied balance sheet repair. A broad-based policy response is needed to secure financial stability. Advanced economies must deal with crisis legacy issues, emerging markets need to bolster their resilience to global headwinds, and the resilience of market liquidity should be enhanced. The report also examines financial spillovers from emerging market economies and finds that they have risen substantially. This implies that when assessing macro-financial conditions, policymakers may need to increasingly take into account economic developments in emerging market economies. Finally, the report assesses changes in the systemic importance of insurers, finding that across advanced economies the contribution of life insurers to systemic risk has increased in recent years. The results suggest that supervisors and regulators should take a more macroprudential approach to the sector.
In the past, foreign shocks arrived to national economies mainly through trade channels, and transmissions of such shocks took time to come into effect. However, after capital globalization, shocks spread to markets almost immediately. Despite the increasing macroeconomic dangers that the situation generated at emerging markets in the South, nobody at the North was ready to acknowledge the pro-cyclicality of the financial system and the inner weakness of “decontrolled” financial innovations because they were enjoying from the “great moderation.” Monetary policy was primarily centered on price stability objectives, without considering the mounting credit and asset price booms being generated by market liquidity and the problems generated by this glut. Mainstream economists, in turn, were not majorly attracted in integrating financial factors in their models. External pressures on emerging market economies (EMEs) were not eliminated after 2008, but even increased as international capital flows augmented in relevance thereafter. Initially economic authorities accurately responded to the challenge, but unconventional monetary policies in the US began to create important spillovers in EMEs. Furthermore, in contrast to a previous surge in liquidity, funds were now transmitted to EMEs throughout the bond market. The perspective of an increase in US interest rates by the FED is generating a reversal of expectations and a sudden flight to quality. Emerging countries’ currencies began to experience higher volatility levels, and depreciation movements against a newly strong US dollar are also increasingly observed. Consequently, there are increasing doubts that the “unexpected” favorable outcome observed in most EMEs at the aftermath of the Global Financial Crisis (GFC) would remain.
Back in the early 1990s, economists and policy makers had high expectations about the prospects for domestic capital market development in emerging economies, particularly in Latin America. Unfortunately, they are now faced with disheartening results. Stock and bond markets remain illiquid and segmented. Debt is concentrated at the short end of the maturity spectrum and denominated in foreign currency, exposing countries to maturity and currency risk. Capital markets in Latin America look particularly underdeveloped when considering the many efforts undertaken to improve the macroeconomic environment and to reform the institutions believed to foster capital market development. The disappointing performance has made conventional policy recommendations questionable, at best. 'Emerging Capital Markets and Globalization' analyzes where we stand and where we are heading on capital market development. First, it takes stock of the state and evolution of Latin American capital markets and related reforms over time and relative to other countries. Second, it analyzes the factors related to the development of capital markets, with particular interest on measuring the impact of reforms. And third, in light of this analysis, it discusses the prospects for capital market development in Latin America and emerging economies and the implications for the reform agenda.