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Climate change is under way in full extent, adversely affecting more and more facets in nature, society and economy. The observations and the projections of these changes are increasingly important to consider in long-term planning, given the need to adapt to the multi-sectoral climate impacts that can be anticipated. In most cases, it is the information on the local scale in a user-oriented way that is most relevant in this context. Over recent years, many countries and organisations have set up climate services such as factsheets, brochures, web-tools, data to enable downstream applications and to form a decision support basis for climate action planning (e.g., KNMI14 in the Netherlands, UKCP18 in the UK, CH2018 in Switzerland, ‘Climate Change in Australia’, NCA4 in the US, Copernicus Climate Data Store / C3S).
This book provides important insight on a range of issues focused on three themes; what new climate change information is being developed, how that knowledge is communicated and how it can be usefully applied across international, regional and local scales. There is increasing international investment and interest to develop and communicate updated climate change information to promote effective action. As change accelerates and planetary boundaries are crossed this information becomes particularly relevant to guide decisions and support both proactive adaptation and mitigation strategies. Developing new information addresses innovations in producing interdisciplinary climate change knowledge and overcoming issues of data quality, access and availability. This book examines effective information systems to guide decision-making for immediate and future action. Cases studies in developed and developing countries illustrate how climate change information promotes immediate and future actions across a range of sectors.
This volume offers a comprehensive survey and a close analysis of efforts to develop actionable climate information in support of vital decisions for climate adaptation, risk management and policy. Arising from submissions and discussion at the 2011 Open Science Conference (OSC) of the World Climate Research Program (WCRP), the book addresses research and intellectual challenges which span the full range of Program activities.
Climate change is occurring, is caused largely by human activities, and poses significant risks for-and in many cases is already affecting-a broad range of human and natural systems. The compelling case for these conclusions is provided in Advancing the Science of Climate Change, part of a congressionally requested suite of studies known as America's Climate Choices. While noting that there is always more to learn and that the scientific process is never closed, the book shows that hypotheses about climate change are supported by multiple lines of evidence and have stood firm in the face of serious debate and careful evaluation of alternative explanations. As decision makers respond to these risks, the nation's scientific enterprise can contribute through research that improves understanding of the causes and consequences of climate change and also is useful to decision makers at the local, regional, national, and international levels. The book identifies decisions being made in 12 sectors, ranging from agriculture to transportation, to identify decisions being made in response to climate change. Advancing the Science of Climate Change calls for a single federal entity or program to coordinate a national, multidisciplinary research effort aimed at improving both understanding and responses to climate change. Seven cross-cutting research themes are identified to support this scientific enterprise. In addition, leaders of federal climate research should redouble efforts to deploy a comprehensive climate observing system, improve climate models and other analytical tools, invest in human capital, and improve linkages between research and decisions by forming partnerships with action-oriented programs.
"Engineering systems are designed to withstand their operating environment, which generally includes a variety of factors influenced by climate variability and extremes. Given that engineering systems usually have long lifespans, it becomes necessary to account for future environmental conditions, which due to climate change, are unlikely to be represented in historical archives. It follows that the first step to adapt engineering systems to the changing environmental conditions is the generation of actionable climate change information. Climate models are the primary tools available to develop projections of future climate, but these projections need to be of sufficiently high quality and resolution to be useful for the adaptation of engineering systems. In this thesis, novel climate change information was developed using the state-of-the-art regional climate model GEM (Global Environmental Multiscale), which is extensively used for climate research. Contributions to original knowledge arose by applying innovative analysis methods to an ensemble of climate projections, including 4 km resolution projections over the Canadian Arctic, developed for the first time. Several knowledge gaps were addressed, which contributed significantly to the advancement of the understanding of climate-infrastructure interactions in cold regions. Analysis of rainfall and snowmelt as flood-generating mechanisms across Canada demonstrated the importance of keeping global warming below the 2 °C threshold of the Paris Agreement. Under 2 °C of global warming, slight increases of rainfall contribution to flood peaks are projected, while a high-warming scenario leads to widespread increases in rainfall contribution and the emergence of hotspots of change in currently snowmelt-dominated regions. These changes influence flood magnitude and timing, which has implications for the management of flood risks and freshwater resources and for the development of flow regulation plans. Large projected changes over northern regions motivated further analysis, which revealed the possibility of abrupt decreases in soil moisture in response to increased drainage due to permafrost degradation for the high-warming scenario. This regime shift is projected to result in abrupt changes to many variables and processes of high significance to northern interests, such as flood predictors and wildfire intensity. The abruptness of these changes presents additional challenges to climate change adaptation and potential retrofitting of engineering systems. The adaptation of these systems requires high-resolution projections, which were developed here for the first time at 4 km resolution over the Canadian Arctic, for the investigation of hazards to northern transportation. By 2040, significant increases to short-duration rainfall and wind gust extremes, as well as further permafrost degradation, are expected to foment deterioration of northern infrastructure and transportation systems. A novel approach integrating climate model output and machine learning algorithms allowed deriving projections of fog - a complex variable. Overall fog frequency is projected to increase over most of the Canadian Arctic by 2040, presenting an additional hazard to northern transportation. The main contribution of this thesis is the advancement of the understanding of several different pathways through which changing climatic conditions are expected to impact engineering systems in cold regions. On one hand, the projections highlight the crucial importance of climate change mitigation, as remaining below the 2 °C global warming threshold would prevent large changes over many regions and decrease the likelihood of abrupt changes. On the other hand, some climatic hazards are projected to soon exceed those in historical records regardless of emissions scenario, and the high-quality, high-resolution projections analyzed here contain useful and actionable information for the adaptation of engineering systems"--
This book explores climate services, including projections, descriptive information, analyses, assessments, and an overview of current trends. Due to the pressures now being put on the world’s climate, it is vital to gather and share reliable climate observation and projection data, which may be tailored for use by different groups. In other words, it is essential to offer climate services. But despite the growth in the use of these services, there are very few specialist publications on this topic. This book addresses that need. Apart from presenting studies and the results of research projects, the book also offers an overview of the wide range of means available for providing and using climate services. In addition, it features case studies that provide illustrative and inspiring examples of how climate services can be optimally deployed.
This open access book highlights the complexities around making adaptation decisions and building resilience in the face of climate risk. It is based on experiences in sub-Saharan Africa through the Future Climate For Africa (FCFA) applied research programme. It begins by dealing with underlying principles and structures designed to facilitate effective engagement about climate risk, including the robustness of information and the construction of knowledge through co-production. Chapters then move on to explore examples of using climate information to inform adaptation and resilience through early warning, river basin development, urban planning and rural livelihoods based in a variety of contexts. These insights inform new ways to promote action in policy and praxis through the blending of knowledge from multiple disciplines, including climate science that provides understanding of future climate risk and the social science of response through adaptation. The book will be of interest to advanced undergraduate students and postgraduate students, researchers, policy makers and practitioners in geography, environment, international development and related disciplines.
The William and Flora Hewlett Foundation, understanding the need for policy makers at the national level to entrain the behavioral and social sciences in addressing the challenges of global climate change, called on the National Research Council to organize two workshops to showcase some of the decision-relevant contributions that these sciences have already made and can advance with future efforts. The workshops focused on two broad areas: (1) mitigation (behavioral elements of a strategy to reduce the net future human influence on climate) and (2) adaptation (behavioral and social determinants of societal capacity to minimize the damage from climate changes that are not avoided). Facilitating Climate Change Responses documents the information presented in the workshop presentations and discussions. This material illustrates some of the ways the behavioral and social sciences can contribute to the new era of climate research.
"While the energy sector is a primary target of efforts to arrest and reverse the growth of greenhouse gas emissions and lower the carbon footprint of development, it is also expected to be increasingly affected by unavoidable climate consequences from the damage already induced in the biosphere. Energy services and resources, as well as seasonal demand, will be increasingly affected by changing trends, increasing variability, greater extremes and large inter-annual variations in climate parameters in some regions. All evidence suggests that adaptation is not an optional add-on but an essential reckoning on par with other business risks. Existing energy infrastructure, new infrastructure and future planning need to consider emerging climate conditions and impacts on design, construction, operation, and maintenance. Integrated risk-based planning processes will be critical to address the climate change impacts and harmonize actions within and across sectors. Also, awareness, knowledge, and capacity impede mainstreaming of climate adaptation into the energy sector. However, the formal knowledge base is still nascent?information needs are complex and to a certain extent regionally and sector specific. This report provides an up-to-date compendium of what is known about weather variability and projected climate trends and their impacts on energy service provision and demand. It discusses emerging practices and tools for managing these impacts and integrating climate considerations into planning processes and operational practices in an environment of uncertainty. It focuses on energy sector adaptation, rather than mitigation which is not discussed in this report. This report draws largely on available scientific and peer-reviewed literature in the public domain and takes the perspective of the developing world to the extent possible."