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This paper investigates the response of consumer price inflation to changes in domestic fuel prices, looking at the different categories of the overall consumer price index (CPI). We then combine household survey data with the CPI components to construct a CPI index for the poorest and richest income quintiles with the view to assess the distributional impact of the pass-through. To undertake this analysis, the paper provides an update to the Global Monthly Retail Fuel Price Database, expanding the product coverage to premium and regular fuels, the time dimension to December 2020, and the sample to 190 countries. Three key findings stand out. First, the response of inflation to gasoline price shocks is smaller, but more persistent and broad-based in developing economies than in advanced economies. Second, we show that past studies using crude oil prices instead of retail fuel prices to estimate the pass-through to inflation significantly underestimate it. Third, while the purchasing power of all households declines as fuel prices increase, the distributional impact is progressive. But the progressivity phases out within 6 months after the shock in advanced economies, whereas it persists beyond a year in developing countries.

Retail gas prices

United States. Congress. House. Committee on the Judiciary. Task Force on Competition Policy and Antitrust Laws

Published: 2009

Total Pages: 232


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This primer will help improve public understanding of the major factors that influence the U.S. price of gasoline & the challenges facing the U.S. on issues related to gasoline supply, demand, & prices. This primer presents information on the factors that influence the price of gasoline &, to the extent possible, why those factors have developed. Specifically, it explains how gasoline is made & distributed, what consumers pay for in a gallon of gasoline, why gasoline prices change over time, & why gasoline prices vary from place to place. The information is presented in a question-&-answer format & is written for a nontechnical audience. Charts, tables & graphs.
This analysis provides context for considering the impact of rising domestic light crude oil production on the price that U.S. consumers pay for gasoline, and provides a framework to consider how changes to existing U.S. crude oil export restrictions might affect gasoline prices. Given the likelihood of continued growth in domestic crude production, and the recognition that some absorption options, such as like-for-like replacement of imported crude oil streams, are inherently limited, the possibility that a relaxation of current policy limitations on crude exports might affect domestic and international markets for both crude oil and products, particularly gasoline, is an important issue. EIA's analysis of the factors affecting U.S. gasoline prices is twofold. The analysis first considers the relationship between U.S. spot gasoline prices and international and domestic spot crude oil prices, represented by Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI), respectively. The second part of the analysis focuses on the interrelationship of U.S. and worldwide gasoline prices and the extent to which global gasoline prices are important in determining U.S. gasoline prices. This analysis takes into account regional and global gasoline supply/demand balances and arbitrage, as well as how the competitive advantage of U.S. Gulf Coast (USGC) refineries is changing the dynamics of U.S. regional and global gasoline pricing.
This paper assesses the dynamic pass-through of crude oil price shocks to retail fuel prices using a novel database on monthly retail fuel prices for 162 countries. The impulse response functions suggest that on average, a one cent increase in crude oil prices per liter translates into a 1.2 cent increase in the retail gasoline price at peak level six months after the shock. However, the estimates vary significantly across country groups, ranging from about 0.5 cent in MENA countries to two cents in advanced economies. The results also show that positive oil price shocks have a larger impact than negative price shocks on the retail gasoline price. Finally, the paper underscores the importance of the new dataset in refining estimates of the fiscal cost of incomplete pass-through.